Let’s turn the clock back to the first week of October — when hockey was finally back in full swing and the 5-0 New England Patriots appeared ready to bulldoze the rest of the NFL.
Too soon?
During that week, I dropped a casual 6,000-word deluge of stats, facts and predictions that I believed would help tell the story of the 2019-20 Bruins.
Now, with the Bruins set to come off their bye week and plunge into the unofficial “second half” of the 2019-20 campaign, we figured now would be a good time to check in on a couple numbers to see if Boston is well on its way to reaching these respective benchmarks and goals.
Let’s take a look:
106.1: The average point total for teams the year after losing the Stanley Cup Final (over the last 10 seasons)
One of the top questions going into the 2019-20 season was going to be how much of a Stanley Cup “hangover” was going to loom over the Bruins — given both the short summer and the emotional/physical drain that comes from an extended postseason run.
But, as we noted before, the teams that have come up just short of hoisting Lord Stanley’s Cup often do pretty well the following year. While we omitted the New Jersey Devils in 2012-13 because that lockout-shortened year would skew the rest of the results from full 82-game seasons, just about every team that fell in the Stanley Cup Final rebounded in short order, averaging about 48.5 wins the following year.
Even if the Bruins perhaps haven’t played up to their potential since their torrid start in October/November, Bruce Cassidy’s club is doing just fine as far as the standings are concerned.
The first-place Bruins are currently projected to finish with about 105 points, based on Micah Blake McCurdy’s current projections. According to his model, the Bruins are slated to finish second overall in the NHL in total points, with the Presidents’ Trophy going to Washington Capitals (110.2 projected points).
https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/1222220067330514946
You could make the case that the Bruins would be running away with the Presidents’ Trophy race if they weren't struggling so much beyond regulation (12 OT & SO losses), but all things considered, Boston is doing just fine months after such a crushing defeat against St. Louis.
Who wants the Presidents’ Trophy, anyway?
1.48: Brandon Carlo’s 5v5 goals against per 60 minutes rate in 2018-19
Carlo’s stock might have reached new heights after his play in the 2019 playoffs, but the promising blueliner already turned heads during the regular season as a shutdown presence for the Bruins. Last season, Carlo’s 5v5 goals against per 60 minutes rate of 1.48 actually ranked first among all NHL defensemen that logged at least 1,200 minutes of 5v5 ice time.
That’s a pool of 87 very good skaters — including the likes of Alex Pietrangelo, Seth Jones, Mark Giordano and more.
This year, Carlo has continued to impress with a GA/60 rate of 1.69 (good for fourth among NHL D-men with a minimum of 500 5v5 minutes played) while helping to anchor one of the top PK units in the league.
While Carlo’s defensive efforts should help assuage some of the Bruins’ worries when Zdeno Chara opts to hang up his skates, that duo has also been awfully effective this year when skating together — with Boston only relinquishing two 5v5 goals in their 201:48 of 5v5 TOI together. It will be curious to see if Cassidy turns to those two in the playoffs when in need of a shutdown option.
https://twitter.com/ConorRyan_93/status/1216171512304226306
460-342-100: The combined record of the 11 teams Boston will face in October
Well, this opening slate looked a lot more daunting back in October, eh? While the Bruins were favored to once again contend for the Atlantic Division crown, it wouldn’t have come as much of a surprise if Boston stumbled out of the gate in 2019-20.
After all, Boston had to contend with the Lightning, Maple Leafs (twice) and plenty of talent out West (St. Louis, Colorado, Vegas, Dallas) — while both the Rangers and Devils were poised for major turnarounds after strong offseasons.
Well, that all meant a whole lot of nothing.
Boston might have benefited from New Jersey turning into a dumpster fire and both the Leafs and Lightning sleep-walking through the first two-plus months of the year, but Cassidy’s crew was relentless out the gate — going 18-3-5 through the end of November.
58.90: Patrice Bergeron’s offensive zone faceoff percentage in 2018-19
While Bergeron has continued to be plagued with nagging lower-body injuries once again in 2019-20 (playing 42 of 51 possible games), the Bruins have remained committed to doing whatever they can to keep their star center fresh in his 16th NHL season.
One of those avenues has been gifting Bergeron with more faceoffs in the offensive zone, sparing the center of those draining shifts spent killing penalties or slowing down the opposition down the other end of the ice.
While Bergeron’s status as one of the premier two-way forwards in the NHL hasn’t taken a hit, it’s become rather evident the Bruins are saving their bullets when it comes to taxing Bergeron with a slew of D-zone starts.
The change has been rather evident over the years. From 2013-16, Bergeron’s Off. Zone Faceoff% was:
2013-14: 46.45%
2014-15: 43.00%
2015-16: 44.91%
After 58.90% of his faceoffs came in the O-zone last season, that total has increased to 62.53% this year — with many of Bergeron’s previous D-zone reps now handed to bottom-six options such as Sean Kuraly (27.03 faceoff percentage).
The results have worked out for Bergeron so far, given that the forward is on pace to tally a career-high 37 goals this season. More importantly, the Bruins are hoping this lighter defensive workload will keep Bergeron fresh for when the club really needs his services in May and June.
24: 5v5 goals scored against the Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak line in 2018-19
For as much as they’ve been tabbed as the “Perfection Line,” Boston’s top forward trio was not without fault last season. Granted, they often go up against other top-six trios, but opponents managed to land some punches against the Bergeron line last year, with Boston surrendering 24 5v5 goals in the 461 minutes of 5v5 TOI that the 63-37-88 line logged together. That equals out to a goals against per 60 minutes rate of 3.11. Not all that great, although Boston still did manage to score 28 5v5 goals during that same stretch.
This year, that group has managed to tighten things up on the defensive end. With 17 goals surrendered in 454 minutes of 5v5 ice time together so far this year, the Bergeron Line’s GA/60 rate is down to 2.24.
(Don’t forget, the Bergeron Line was broken up for extended stretches last year due to Bergeron’s rib/sternoclavicular injury in November and Pastrnak’s thumb injury in February).
Those favorable O-zone starts have helped some, but as a whole, the Bergeron Line has responded after far too many clubs managed to get their licks in against this crew in 2018-19.
https://twitter.com/ConorRyan_93/status/1216880351685025792
0.92: Charlie McAvoy’s 5v5 primary points per 60 minutes rate
While the Bruins labored at times during 5v5 play when it came to generating offense last season, McAvoy was a force from the blue line in said situations, with his 0.92 primary points (goals and primary assists) per 60 minutes rate ranking ninth overall among NHL defenseman (min. 500 minutes).
For as much flak has McAvoy has received this season when it comes to his offensive production (DiD yOu kNoW hE hAs ZeRo GoAlz), the promising young defenseman is still consistently generating 5v5 offense for a Bruins team in need of some from the blue line.
So far this season, McAvoy is averaging 1.00 5v5 points per 60 minutes rate — tops among all Bruins defensemen and 44th in the NHL (min. 600 5v5 minutes played). Given this his expected goals rate is currently 3.7, McAvoy is due for some tallies to come in bunches down the stretch. Yes, there have been some ugly stretches for the young defenseman — but the Bruins still have a stud in the 22-year-old blueliner.
7.00: The 5v5 goals for per 60 minutes rate of the DeBrusk-Krejci-Kuhlman line in 2018-19
We’ve tossed this stat out quite a bit when it comes to highlighting the impact that Kuhlman had on Boston’s second line last season. But it was warranted, given the spark the Minnesota Duluth product provided Boston’s top-six crew last year — with the 74-46-83 line ultimately tallying eight 5v5 goals in just 68 minutes of TOI together.
A fractured tibia sidelined Kuhlman for over two months this year, but that second line failed to find much of a spark when put together in 2019-20 — tallying zero goals in 40:04 of 5v5 TOI together.
However, since returning from injury earlier this month, Kuhlman’s ability to consistently generate high-danger looks and win puck battles on the forecheck has paid dividends — with the forward recording three assists in his first three games back.
It will be interesting to see if Cassidy opts to keep a line of Krejci, Kuhlman and Danton Heinen together after that trio dominated during Boston’s win over the Golden Knights back on Jan. 21.
18.39: Jake DeBrusk’s expected goals rate in 2018-19
While DeBrusk finished last season with a career high 27 goals, the top-six winger benefited from a favorable 17.3 shooting percentage and a bit of luck — given that his expected goals rate had him tabbed for just 18.39 goals in 2018-19.
This year has been more of the same for DeBrusk, who has tallied 15 goals despite having an expected goals mark of 12.76. But last season, Clear Sight Analytics tabbed DeBrusk as a quality shooter when it comes to converting on the chances given to him, with the performance differential between his expected goals to actual goals ranking second in the entire NHL. So even if DeBrusk’s expected goal totals continued to lag behind his actual output, perhaps the winger’s natural finishing ability will have him continuing to pile on goals as the season progresses.
It’s been another up-and-down year, but DeBrusk is still on pace for 25 goals and close to 50 points in 2019-20.
15: The number of points David Pastrnak accrued through the first 10 games of the 2018-19 season
From back in October:
If Pastrnak gets off to a similarly fast start in 2019-20, he would become the fifth player in franchise history to record at least 15 points in his first 10 team games multiple times with the Bruins, joining Bobby Orr (1969-70,1971-72, 1973-74, 1974-75), Phil Esposito (1970-71, 1971-72, 1973-74, 1974-75), Bill Cowley (1940-41, 1943-44, 1944-45) and Adam Oates (1992-93, 1993-94).
Well, that was easy. Pastrnak managed to tally 11 goals and 18 total points through the first 10 games of the 2019-20 season to hit this mark, and is currently on pace to have 59 goals and 113 total points this season.
Pastrnak also hit another major milestone during that stretch, securing his 300th career point. In doing so, Pastrnak became the fourth player in Bruins history to require 350 games played or fewer to record his first 300 career NHL points with the franchise — joining Barry Pederson (235 GP), Bobby Orr (279 GP) and Ray Bourque (316 GP).
https://twitter.com/ConorRyan_93/status/1186790698181369859?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1186790698181369859&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.stanleycupofchowder.com%2F2019%2F10%2F22%2F20927861%2Fdavid-pastrnak-between-the-legs-goal-pastrnak-300th-point-in-the-regular-season-another-goal
100: Brad Marchand’s point total in 2018-19
If Marchand manages to reach triple digits once again this season, he will join Peter Mahovlich (1974-75 and 1975-76) as just the second player in League history to record their first two 100-point campaigns in their 10th season or later.
So far, he’s well on his way — considering he’s projected to hit 105 points (34 goals, 71 points) this season. Even with a recent dry spell (3 goals in last 26 games), Marchand has continued to excel at driving play — with his individual 5v5 points per 60 minutes rate of 3.09 ranking fourth overall in the NHL (min. 300 minutes played), behind only Artemi Panarin, Evgeni Malkin and Nathan MacKinnon.
If Marchand and Pastrnak both hit the century mark, it will be the first time two Bruins have reached that milestone in the same year since the 1992-93 season, when Adam Oates and Joe Juneau racked up 142 and 102 points, respectively.
62.86: The Corsi For Percentage of a D pairing of Charlie McAvoy-Matt Grzelcyk during the preseason
These BU products really turned heads during the preseason, with Boston holding a 44-26 edge in shot attempts during the pairing’s 33:37 of 5v5 TOI. Pretty impressive stuff, considering the pairing only had 20% of its faceoffs come in the offensive zone.
While both McAvoy and Grzelcyk have primarily played apart so far this season, the blueliners have really stood out when deployed by Cassidy. In 155:01 of 5v5 TOI together, the Bruins hold a 169-114 edge in shot attempts and a plus-26 edge in shots on goal.
Given both the shutdown potential of a Carlo + Chara pairing and Boston’s need to gift McAvoy more O-zone time, don’t be surprised if No. 73 spends some extended stretches with Grzelcyk or Torey Krug over the final months of the regular season. McAvoy is due to break through on offense, but some added O-zone starts could really help him out.
60: The number of points I’m predicting Charlie Coyle surpasses in 2019-20:
Well, this prediction doesn't look all too hot right now — with Coyle currently on pace to net 14 goals and post 43 total points in his first full season with Boston. But even if Coyle hasn't shifted into another gear as far as O-zone production goes, the Weymouth native has still been a huge addition to a Bruins forward corps in need of some puck-possession prowess outside of the Bergeron Line. While Coyle is at his best driving Boston's third line from the pivot position, he filled in admirably this season when slotted to Krejci's right on the wing — and Boston's latest combination of DeBrusk-Coyle-Bjork generated some positive results during that win over Vegas last week. Once Boston shores up their top-six vacancy (fingers crossed), Boston's third line could be a buzzsaw if the likes of Bjork, Coyle, Heinen and others all start settling into a groove.
https://twitter.com/ConorRyan_93/status/1181775245855875074
0.95: Connor Clifton’s Goals Against Per 60 minutes rate in 2018-19
“Cliffy Hockey” was one of the top surprises on the 2018-19 Bruins, filling in admirably during a year in which Kevan Miller was limited to just 39 games due to a slew of injuries. While the Quinnipiac product turned heads for both his heavy hits and flashes of assertive O-zone play, Clifton was far from a freelancer when out on a shift — with his GA/60 rate standing as tops on the team (albeit in a much smaller sample size than Carlo’s 5v5 reps).
This year has been a bit more of a struggle for Clifton, who hasn’t played since Dec. 29 due to an upper-body injury. But even when Clifton was in the lineup, he’s been far more vulnerable in Boston’s own zone — with his GA/60 rate jumping up to 2.08. Hopefully, Clifton finds a bit more consistency and assertiveness in his game when he eventually draws back into the lineup, but with Miller’s status still up in the air for the rest of the year, Boston might need to look for outside help if it wants to shore up its third D pairing.
157: The number of 5v5 goals that Boston scored during the 2018-19 regular season
From October:
“While Boston has a considerable amount of firepower up front and one of the top power-play units in the NHL, Boston labored at times when it came to producing during 5v5 play last year. Cassidy mentioned that rebound retrieval in the offensive zone dipped quite a bit for his club last season, and will be emphasized this year as a way to get the B’s generating more sustained pressure in the opposition’s side of the ice.”
While the Bruins’ power play has bailed this club out more often than not this season, the 2019-20 B’s haven’t been quite as listless during 5v5 play, especially when compared to last year. After ranking 19th overall in the league in 5v5 goals scored last year, the Bruins are tied with the Minnesota Wild for eighth place in 2019-20 with 109 5v5 tallies through 51 games.
After getting saddled with a rudderless third line for most of last season (with the likes of Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, Ryan Donato, Colby Cave and more failing to take off), the emergence of Anders Bjork and the stability that Charlie Coyle brings in the bottom-six has allowed Boston to address a major flaw up front. However, the case could be made that most of the Bruins’ fortunes are still tied too heavily on the production generated by the Bergeron Line and the top power-play unit.
21:05: Zdeno Chara’s average TOI in 2019-20:
From October:
"Chara might continue to defy Father Time, but the Bruins are doing their best to ease their captain’s minutes in what is his 22nd season in the NHL. Chara’s TOI in 2019 was his lowest since he averaged 18:54 as a 21-year-old skater with the Islanders back in 1998-99. Don’t be surprised if Chara’s minutes hover below 20 minutes per game as Boston looks to keep him fresh."
Chara’s workload hasn’t dropped all that significantly this season, with his average TOI currently tabbed at 21:00. But as the likes of McAvoy (23:14 ATOI) and Carlo (20:41) continue to take on added reps, the Bruins can afford to cut back on Chara’s minutes, especially in order to keep the 42-year-old captain fresh for the postseason.
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, Sean Tierney and HockeyViz.