Celtics show they deserve trade help for bench after battle with Bucks

The path to the NBA Finals this spring is going to go through the Milwaukee Bucks one way or another. The dream scenario for the Boston Celtics according to one league source is for the Sixers and Bucks to face off in the second round in a 1 vs. 4/5 matchup that spares Boston from having to face both if they manage to make their way out of the first two rounds of the East playoffs themselves.

In order for that type of scenario to occur, a couple of things need to happen:

1. The Celtics need to be good enough to finish with the No. 2 or 3 seed in hopes of avoiding the Sixers in the first two rounds and staying out of the Milwaukee bracket in the second round.
2. They need to be good enough to beat the Sixers or Bucks in a seven-game series.

Beating both of those teams in a seven-game series in consecutive rounds feels like a tall task. Beating one of them won’t be easy either but is realistic after the first 40 games of the 2019-20 regular season. Outside of Philadelphia, there isn’t a team in the East that matches up better with Milwaukee 1 through 5 as evidenced by a gritty showing on Thursday night by the visitors in the second half of a back-to-back in a 128-123 defeat.

Without Jaylen Brown (sprained thumb), the Celtics rallied from 27 down and gave themselves a fighting chance in the final minute after a sensational performance from Kemba Walker (40 points, 11 rebounds). There was plenty of good (Marcus Smart: 24 points) and bad (Gordon Hayward: 1-of-10 FG) from the core which is bound to happen on back-to-backs from time to time. Hayward's play has been up-and-down of late but the odds remain fully in favor of him staying put.

Yet, the main difference in the game after the Celtics made things interesting in the second half wasn't Hayward: It came down to the benches. Milwaukee outscored Boston’s second unit by a 48-23 margin on the night, which shouldn’t come as a huge surprise with Smart and his 24 points being thrown into the starting five.

Yet, when you look at what the Celtics are going to need to take out the Bucks in a seven-game series right now without homecourt advantage, it’s hard to believe that they have the right personnel to deal with one of the most potent second units in the league, even when they are at full strength with Smart as a reserve.

George Hill (13 points) and Donte DiVincenzo (19 points) keyed a 17-3 run for the Bucks in the third quarter that pushed their lead back to 20 after the C’s starters had cut it to six points with four minutes remaining in the frame. A summary of key plays over that stretch involved the C’s bench players in the game (Javonte Green, Enes Kanter, Grant Williams)

—Green fouled DiVincenzo shooting a 3 and Hill on a drive
—Hill hit a pull-up 3 on Kanter after a pick-and-roll switch
—Khris Middleton hit a turnaround drive on Kanter
—Green turned the ball over by passing the ball to an empty corner as the shot clock wound down.

Antetokounmpo was resting for this entire 17-3 stretch yet Milwaukee’s bench ran the lead back up to 20 in just four minutes once Stevens broke up his starting five for a few minutes to get his core pieces some rest. These kinds of outbursts aren’t isolated incidents either for Milwaukee as it was a lot of the same faces on the second unit last year in the postseason that put together game-changing runs in their 4-1 series win over Boston. Antetokounmpo is the head of the snake for Milwaukee but they have the depth to punish you just as much if you have matchup liabilities on your bench, something the C’s are guilty of.

A look around the C’s bench demonstrates these issues when trying to find someone take 15-20 minutes as an eighth or ninth man against the Bucks in a playoff series.

Green: Not a reliable 3-point shooter so can be ignored by defenses on the perimeter

Kanter: Defensive liability in the pick-and-roll and can’t guard Bucks shooting bigs on the perimeter

Brad Wanamaker: Struggles to finish against the Bucks’ length and does not fare well when chasing shooters.

Grant Williams: Largely ignored on the perimeter by Milwaukee bigs in the midst of 1-of-4 shooting night from 3-point range.

Semi Ojeleye: Played admirably while guarding Giannis over his 20 minutes and hit a couple 3s (2-of-5) but still a very limited player offensively with questionable decision making at times (as evidenced by a drive against Giannis that led to a turnover in the fourth quarter).

That’s not to say that the Celtics won’t be helped by any of these guys in a series against the Bucks. All of them are fully capable of having productive games in spot minutes. However, it’s a stretch to expect them to be able to keep pace with the Bucks firepower on a regular basis given their pedigrees and that leaves very little margin of error for Boston's best five players plus Daniel Theis.

“We just got a lot of guys that are in it really for the first or second time, and they’ve just got to grow through it,” Stevens told reporters in Milwaukee. “We’re going to ride our best five as we’ve talked about quite a bit, and then we just need everybody else to play a role around them. But we need those five to be awfully good.”

Even with Brown soaking up 35 minutes from the bench on the night like this, it still forces someone out of the Wanamaker/Green/Ojeleye role to play 15-20 minutes to avoid Stevens having to lean on his starters for 40+ minutes in the playoffs. It’s going to be tough to expect those guys to help the C’s keep pace with Milwaukee on the offensive end in shootouts like we saw on Thursday night. Ojeleye is a great defensive weapon to use against Giannis but there is no pure shooter in that group that can reliably punish the Bucks for collapsing in the paint against drivers.

The Celtics may be struggling of late (losers in five of seven) but they’ve shown enough this season as a whole where it’s worth investing more in the now to solve this problem. This team deserves a fighting chance to contend in the East but it’s not going to happen without another reliable shooting option for Stevens to turn to in games like this. Boston’s bench has overachieved during the first half of the season but with Rob Williams out for at least another month and some regression taking place among a lot of other reserves, reinforcements are needed to even stay in the top half of the East playoff bracket for the regular season.

Danny Ainge stood pat two years ago with a promising roster and that combined with injuries cost that team its best chance at the NBA Finals. He shouldn’t make the same mistake again with this group. With assets to use (two late first-round picks, Memphis pick) along with a roster spot that could be used far better (Vincent Poirier), some help should be added. They will need to overcome some tough odds regardless to take down the Bucks in the postseason but it’s worth making it a fair fight to avoid bench letdowns like we saw on Thursday night.