With the season on the line, when it came to defending the Titans, Bill Belichick went back to a tried and true approach on Saturday night.
And it would have worked, too, if two things would have happened, which haven't been an issue in the past but were for this team:
1. The offense needed to be just a little bit better. You can point to the 14 points allowed, but the Titans blew points on Ryan Tannehill's fumbled shotgun snapped — totally self-inflicted — and could have scored more in the fourth quarter if they needed to, but didn't. Still, a little more efficient offensive play could have tipped the scales in this game.
2. Patriots didn't tackle well enough. It wasn't terrible, but it wasn't good either. They missed five blatant tackles and there was one huge one in particular on the biggest play of the game, and during the biggest drive of the game.
J.C. Jackson had Derrick Henry dead to rights on the first play of the touchdown drive before halftime. And he just whiffed (Jamie Collins wasn't great on the play either). That 29-yard gain completely changed that drive and the game.
Those two things were the biggest factors into why Belichick's approach wasn't enough to win the game.
What was the approach? The Patriots invited the Titans to run the ball. They took this approach, likely, for two reasons. For one, it plays to the strength of the Patriots. They would have loved Tannehill putting the ball up over 25 times in this game against New England's secondary.
The other factor is more running from the Titans would keep the game from being a shootout, which the Patriots' offense just can't win at this point. Keeping the game in the teens or low 20s would give New England its best chance at winning this game, and it looked good after they got 10 after the first two drives. But just three points the rest of the way ruined that.
You can say Belichick's approach failed since the Titans, led by Henry, ran for 201 yards on 40 carries, but Henry had five carries of at least 10 yards — the Jackson play being the largest. But if the Patriots could have limited those big plays with better run discipline and tackling, I think they would have been just fine with Henry carrying 35 times for, say, 130 yards.
I think the approach was sound, but I think you could second-guess how they matched up personnel, which was exploited on the biggest drive of the game — the touchdown before halftime. I don't think enough emphasis has been placed on that drive. The Titans went 75 yards in seven plays and there was just two passes — an incompletion and a screen pass that is considered a de facto run.
The Patriots allowed the Titans to drive for a touchdown without, basically, having to throw. That's downright embarrassing and it opens up some criticism for the Patriots deciding to defend the Titans' 12 personnel — one back, two tight ends and two receivers — with nickel (five defensive backs) instead of an extra linebacker. That mismatch was exploited over and over on that drive.
The personnel:
Defensive line: Kyle Van Noy, Lawrence Guy, Danny Shelton, John Simon
Linebackers: Jamie Collins, Dont'a Hightower
Safeties: Duron Harmon, Devin McCourty
Cornerbacks: Stephon Gilmore, JC Jackson
Nickel back: Jonathan Jones
Most teams would match 12 personnel with an extra linebacker as we talked about going into this game and why not match linebackers on the tight ends — they're not that good and you could stop the run better.
I would have proposed taking Jones off the field for Elandon Roberts or Ja'Whaun Bentley, and moving Collins out of the middle and onto a tight end. It would have given the Patriots more of a 4-4 look with a linebacker instead of a safety.
The Patriots chose not to do that and it was part of the reason why they were pushed around on this crucial drive.
1st and 10: Henry run for 29 yards (see above video).
2nd and 10: Henry run for 11 yards
Guy gets double-teamed and Jones and Collins are out of the play.
1st and 10: Henry run for 9 yards
Collins is late and in the wrong gap.
2nd and 1: Henry runs for 3 yards
Collins is late in the hole but Guy makes a nice play.
1st and 10: Henry 22-yard screen
Simon diagnoses late, Collins is out of the play, McCourty is late to recognize and blocked, Harmon is blocked.
1st and goal: Henry 1 yard TD run
Bentley has a chance to make the same play the Titans would later make, but doesn't get into the hole fast enough.
A very disappointing and, ultimately, game-changing sequence. If the Patriots had an extra linebacker on the field instead of nickel back, you have to wonder how things might have been different.
Here are the defensive positional ratings against the Titans:
DEFENSE
[table id=411 /]
Defensive line (1.5 out of 5)
Thought the edge players, Van Noy (sack/forced fumble, forced the INT) and Simon, had very strong games, especially in the second half but Deatrich Wise (first half) and Lawrence Guy (second half) struggled with gap control. ... Danny Shelton did his job but Guy and Wise were targeted for more double teams at the point of attack. ... Adam Butler didn't play much because the Titans rarely got into passing situations. ... Patriots had a season-low run stuff percentage of 15. Some of that was the Titans' line and Henry, some of it was the Patriots just not being physical enough/assignment-sure.
Linebackers (1.5 out of 5)
Outside of Dont'a Hightower's second-half performance, the linebackers were terrible in this game. ... Bentley, Roberts, and Collins combined for nine minus-plays and just two plus-plays. ... Roberts could have prevented Henry's 1-yard touchdown but he didn't attack with enough force. ... This was one of those typical Collins games where he has to read and react, and he was just late and/or wrong almost the entire game. I had his miscues factoring in on 49 rushing yards, and the key third-down screen by Dion Lewis.
Secondary (2.5 out of 5)
This group didn't get much action and when they did, it was hit and miss. ... Jackson (3rd down pass defensed) had a huge missed tackle for 29 yards. ... Jones (PBU) had an 18-yard penalty. ... McCourty had a hurry but missed a tackle and had Tannehill run through him for a key third-down pickup. ... Gilmore got no action. ... Terrence Brooks (PD) allowed the touchdown and final third down due to poor technique, but he hasn't been in that position much this year.
THREE UP
Kyle Van Noy: Had a very strong second half and it's hard to dispute his sack/forced fumble, and his hurry to cause an interception.
Dont'a Hightower: His second half stirred the echoes of his postseason heroics of the past. Too bad not many more joined in.
John Simon: Will kick himself for not seeing the Henry screen earlier, but Simon was very physical up front in this game.
FOUR DOWN
Deatrich Wise: He never should have been put in a position to hold up against the run, but he was and he wasn't good.
Jamie Collins: Had an awful game against the run — similar to some of his in the past.
Terrence Brooks: The defensive calls could have put him in better position, but he still got beat for a touchdown and a key third down.
Elandon Roberts/Ja'Whaun Bentley: The Patriots kept them on this roster all season to get run over? Disappointing end. Bentley would have been better with more playing time.