Why the Celtics won't be trading for Andre Drummond

After years of mediocrity in Detroit, it appears a pivot may be in play for the Motor City. Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com was first to report on Friday afternoon that the team is discussing potential deals with Andre Drummond after an injury-riddled 12-23 start to their season. While Wojnarowski lists Atlanta as a top suitor for the big man, Vince Goodwill of Yahoo! Sports reports the Celtics, Raptors, and Mavericks have all inquired on the big man.

It’s hard to fathom the Celtics making such a seismic move in the midst of the 24-8 start to the season but let’s do some due diligence on this hypothetical scenario. Could the C’s use a double-double machine like Drummond? Should they realistically give up what it takes to get him? Let’s breakdown the possibilities.

The Contract

Drummond is one of the highest-paid players in the league, making a hefty $27.1 million this season at age 26. He has a player option for next year for $28.7 million which he is using as leverage to get out of Detroit (threatening to opt out). It’s tough to see Drummond commanding that type of money on the open market next season on a long-term deal so those threats may be empty to begin with. He’s averaging 17.6 points and 15.8 rebounds per game (the league-high) but those types of gaudy stats have not led to much success in his career from a team perspective. (0-8 in the postseason). Part of that is a lack of personnel around him but there’s no denying that his skillset (no perimeter shot, lackluster perimeter defender) is limiting in today’s NBA.

What would the Celtics have to give up to get him?

The path here is very tough for Boston. Kemba Walker isn’t going anywhere. The same goes for Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum. The leaves the C’s with limited high salary options.

Gordon Hayward is the easiest match when it comes to money. He earns $32.7 million this year and has a player option for just over $34.1 million next season. While the C’s risk losing Hayward this offseason if he’s looking for a long-term payday, that feels like an unlikely scenario at this juncture. There aren’t many teams with serious cap room next summer and most of those squads are in rebuilding mode right now. Based on that, it’s hard to find a match that makes sense given Hayward’s likely desire to play on a playoff team.

Without touching Hayward, the only other way to make a move for Drummond would be decimating the C’s bench. Marcus Smart ($12.5 million) would be a starting point in terms of salary while Enes Kanter and Vincent Poirier would lead to another $7.2 million. From there, the C’s would still have to find another few million dollars to throw in from their rookies or low roster pieces, which would be very tough to do without dismantling the bench. The Pistons also don’t have open roster spots to make such a lopsided deal work.

How much of an upgrade is Drummond on Kanter and Theis?

Would you take Drummond over Kanter if the money was equal? Of course. However, Kanter is making less than 20 percent of Drummond’s salary this year and that’s a huge deal when you are looking at the C’s financial structure. Kanter is essentially the same kind of elite rebounder that Drummond is and while the Pistons big man is the far better rim protector, he has many of the same weaknesses that Kanter holds when it comes to defending the pick-and-roll or switches on the perimeter.

The final play of Friday’s win against the Hawks may provide no better example of why the C’s won’t be spending major capital on a guy like Drummond who is extremely limited defensively. On the game-winning play of the night for Boston, Daniel Theis had to defend Trae Young in a 1-on-1 switch, sticking with the sharpshooting guard long enough to block his potential game-winning 3. Drummond (like Kanter) does not have the speed or discipline to stay with quicker guards like that in spots, making him a liability as a crunch-time five center, especially against teams that have stretch bigs (i.e. the top teams in the East).

The Celtics locker room provided an extra vote of confidence for the center position on Friday night after Theis and Kanter combined for 28 points and 17 rebounds in the victory.

“We believe in Theis. Defensively and offensively, Theis has been doing big things and making big-time plays for us,” Marcus Smart said. “For him to be able to guard a guy like Trae Young in that situation, where quick, no timeouts, they’re coming back at you. It’s a 2-point game but not everybody probably knows that. But Theis does a good job of running him off the line. And he makes a good play, when he steps back he blocks his shot. But like I said, Theis has been doing it all year for us. I’m proud of him.”

There will be plenty of areas that the C’s could look to shore up in the coming weeks ahead of the trade deadline but moving a versatile wing like Hayward for a redundant big man like Drummond would be a step sideways or backward for the franchise. While it would be a nightmare matchup for some opponents to have an elite finishing big like Drummond with shooting around him on the offensive end, his defensive warts and shooting limitations make Hayward a more valuable piece to this franchise.

Kanter and Theis have been a nice answer for the C’s at the center spot this year and while their flaws may become glaring in the postseason, they won’t necessarily be solved by a guy like Drummond. He will probably be going somewhere in the next few weeks, but it won’t be Boston.