Celtics draft watch: Why the future of the Grizzlies' pick remains murky

The 2019-20 season marks a pivotal year for Boston’s long list of draft assets since it could end up being the final year (barring other moves) that the team has multiple first-round picks for the foreseeable future. With nearly two months of the NBA season in the books, let’s take stock at how the dominoes are beginning to fall around the association. Is the Grizzlies’ pick still looking like it could roll over to 2021? Is there any danger of the Grizz pick turning into the Kings pick part II (i.e. far lower than originally projected)? And what’s the status of the C’s other picks? Let’s give a rundown of it all, along with some possibilities when it comes to using said assets in an eventual trade.

Grizzlies first-round pick (top-6 protected in 2020, unprotected in 2021)
Record: 7-16 (sixth-worst in the NBA)
Analysis: The Celtics don’t want to be picking in the lottery this year if it means an unprotected draft pick from Memphis next season. However, the Grizzlies are in the right range for the moment for the C’s to maximize off a 2020 draft pick.

Through 23 games of the season, Memphis looks like a squad that is straddling the line between the NBA’s bottom rung and a respectable non-playoff squad. They are just three games ahead of the NBA’s worst record on one hand, but in a sign of how far the second tier of teams out West has fallen, remain just four games out of the No. 8 seed for a playoff spot.

So which direction will the Grizzlies be trending toward over the final 60 games of the regular season with Boston’s best remaining non-player asset? Let’s go through a few crucial indicators to keep an eye on.

First, the Grizzlies have benefitted from a home heavy schedule so far (13 home/10 away), playing the second-most home games out of any team in the NBA thus far. They play fast (5th in pace) but don’t particularly do anything well on the offensive end, a promising sign when it comes to their long-term trajectory as they ranked in the bottom third of the league in shooting, offensive rebounding, turnovers and free throw rate.

Another interesting dynamic of the Grizzlies’ start is the way head coach Taylor Jenkins is distributing minutes. Jae Crowder leads the team with 31 per game and no one else on the roster tops 28 mpg as the franchise is clearly prioritizing load management with some of its younger talent in what is essentially a development season for the franchise, with Jenkins playing 10 or 11 guys every night for 10+ minutes. Ja Morant returned from a back injury this week and has continued to look terrific (19.1 ppg, 6.4 apg) but fellow standout rookie Brandon Clarke remains out with an oblique injury for an unspecified length.

The good news for the C’s pick potentially rolling over is that there should be a fire sale at some point by the Grizzlies with some of its veteran talents in the next month or two. Crowder (10.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg) is a lock to be dealt to get back some future assets on his expiring deal, while older pieces like Kyle Anderson or Jonas Valanciunas could all be had for the right price. Solomon Hill is extremely overpaid but is also an expiring deal, so he could be used in a deal if the Grizzlies want to be a dumping ground for a pricy long-term deal someone is looking to ship out (while getting draft picks in the process).

A look at the teams below the Grizzlies in the lottery however makes it tough to see a lot of room to fall further towards the bottom.