NBA Notebook: What will Celtics' rotation look like when Gordon Hayward returns?

While the Celtics publicly gave Gordon Hayward a timetable of six weeks to return to the floor after surgery on his fractured left hand Nov. 9, the team understandably revealed the longer side of a possible recovery range. The swingman has experienced no setbacks with his recovery to date and is on the verge of going through a full-contact practice on Sunday with his teammates just four weeks into the recovery.

One team source told BostonSportsJournal.com that Hayward could be back in action as soon as this week depending on how well his hand responds to contact in practice. Whether the eventual return comes this week or next, the C’s have admirably fought without him, going 9-4 over the past 13 games.

“Our guys have done a good job thus far during that stretch,” Brad Stevens said Friday night. “That’s what good teams do. When guys are out, Kemba was out the one night, Marcus was out the other night against a good team, you just find a way to win. Gordon’s out, other guys have to step up.”

With Hayward back, the challenge (on paper) is finding the best way to bring him back into the fold with minimal disruption. However, concerns about his ability to fit in alongside a trio of streaking Celtics in Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker, and Jayson Tatum should not be much of an issue based on how that group fared before Hayward’s injury and the fact the offense has dropped off without Hayward in the mix. While various injuries/illnesses limited their time together as starters to just five games together before Hayward went down, the results those four had while sharing the floor together were incredibly promising.

64 minutes of Hayward/Walker/Tatum/Brown
Offensive rating: 116.8 points per 100 possessions (1st among Celtic lineups with 50+ minutes)
Defensive rating: 92.8 points per 100 possessions
Net rating: +24.0 (1st among Celtic lineups with +50 minutes)

There will be some time needed for Hayward to shake off the rust obviously and find his spots but his return is a far cry from his situation last season.

“I think you're always getting used to each other again, but it hasn’t been that long,” Stevens said of Hayward's absence. “So I’m not really worried about it. At the end of the day, the best version of ourselves includes all those guys, and we all know it, and our chance against the very very best to go as late as you want to go includes all those guys. So we got a long way to the end of the season. When he does get back, we’ll reintegrate him and we’ll just keep trying to get everybody to play their best basketball and make the right play. That’s been the theme the whole year, just make the right play. Everything will take care of itself.”

The truth is, not much about the starters’ roles will change when Hayward comes back. Everyone will be playing roughly the same number of minutes in the starting five, so it’s the second unit that will see their playing time slashed to some degree. There was plenty of mixing and matching early in the year as Stevens went 11 and 12 deep often, even when Hayward was active. That should change now that more roles have been established up and down the bench. A peek on how the rotation will shake itself out now when it comes to playing time.

The scorers (30-34 minutes per game)

Tatum: He’s leading the Celtics in minutes per game (34.3) and that comes for good reason as he ranks third in the NBA in plus/minus (+209). While Stevens won’t have to lean as heavily on him with Hayward back in the fold, his ability to play well with four bench players has been a difference-maker for this team all year. That and his young legs make him likely to continue to lead this group.

Walker: Boston’s leading scorer (21.8 ppg) has benefited from playing the fewest minutes of his career (32.1) since his rookie season. At age 29, it makes plenty of sense for the C’s to protect their biggest franchise investment so expect that 32 minutes number to hold steady with capable backups in Smart and Wanamaker playing behind him.

Brown: He’s at an unsurprising career-high of 33.4 minutes per game but that total should dip a bit with Hayward coming back. However, with career-highs nearly across the board, Brown has started to look more and more like a must-play option in crunch time situations when the C’s are at full strength. His rebounding and defensive versatility have made it far easier for the C’s to get away with going small late in games.

Hayward: The Celtics will certainly have the option to bring Hayward along slowly when he returns to the floor, knowing that the 29-year-old will probably be feeling some soreness in his surgically repaired hand for at least another month or two past his return. He was the team’s best player over the first eight games of the year however and should have been able to maintain his conditioning while on the sidelines, so any type of drop-off shouldn’t last long.

The Sixth Man (25-30 minutes per game)

Marcus Smart: The versatile guard (31.8 minutes per game) made his return to the lineup on Friday night and not only looked sharp after his five-day respite, he played his part perfectly in the offense with five high quality shot attempts on the night (4/5 FG). Putting less of an offensive onus on himself with Hayward back in the fold should help Smart to return to being a distributor and help allow the C’s offense to bounce back from a late-November slump that coincided with Smart’s shooting woes (38% FG, 33% 3PT). The intriguing question now as Hayward returns will be whether the improved play of Brown keeps Smart from playing most crunch time minutes or if Stevens opts to simply play his best five guys. It will change night-to-night depending on matchups in all likelihood but Stevens could have a tough choice to make on a nightly basis in that area.

The starting center (15-25 minutes per game)

Daniel Theis: The most consistent of all the bigs so far has started every game for the C’s in the middle (when active) since opening night. While the C’s starts have been sluggish lately, Theis has not been a consistent reason why, providing a solid level of defense in the middle and good screen-setting skills. There are going to be obvious matchups against centers with a major size/strength advantage against him that will give him a quick hook, but Stevens looks loyal to him as a starter at this point. If he shows more offensively, he will start to be a threat to play more crunch time center when the C’s need to play a true center.

The bench centers (15-25 minutes per game split among the 3)

Enes Kanter: Stevens has prioritized protecting him against bad matchups all year long, keeping his minutes limited to 15.8 per game despite some impressive production that we covered earlier this week here at BSJ. He will see regular time against bigs that aren’t scary 3-point threats (Embiid, Drummond) and against front lines where rebounding is a strength. With Stevens’ focus on defense and developing youth early, he is probably going to be continually playing a lot less than he envisioned upon signing this offseason.

Rob Williams: His minutes have been on the decline as Kanter has become healthier but the C’s remain understandably committed to getting him nightly reps despite some up-and-down results. His turnovers and a lack of defensive consistency have been troublesome at times but his athleticism and rim protection will continue to hold appeal. His leash will get shorter as the year continues however unless he shows an improved ability to play within the team’s defensive schemes instead of chasing blocks or making unforced mistakes.

Grant Williams: The shooting (24 percent from the field, 0-of-25 from 3-point range) has pushed him to the fringe of the rotation anyway but the on/off numbers are still very favorable to the rookie. Against mobile 5s, he may be the best traditional big that this team has at center. Those matchups will come up here and there but the emergence of Semi Ojeleye and his shooting struggles have left him without regular minutes. That will only continue with Hayward back.

The bench regulars (10-20 minutes per game)

Brad Wanamaker: No player on the roster benefitted more from Hayward’s absence than the 6-foot-5 guard, running with his opportunity as the bench’s primary ball handler. He has averaged 21 minutes per game over the past 12 contests, shooting a superb 46.7 percent from the field and 39 percent from 3-point range. High efficiency and creating for others (3.7 assists per game) have solidified his role as an 8th/9th man on this roster with everyone healthy. Hayward will take 5-10 minutes from him per game but he’s played well enough now that Stevens can throw him out on the floor with confidence every night.

Semi Ojeleye: His impact has not been as dramatic as Wanamaker in the box score but the third-year forward has taken a firm hold on the backup power forward minutes in the past few weeks. As written about earlier this week at BSJ, the C’s defensive numbers have been stellar with him on the court and he’s hitting enough 3s (40 percent with Hayward out) to fill his role on offense. Like Wanamaker, he will be trimmed down 5-10 minutes per game (he’s been playing 20-plus for five straight contests) but right now, he’s the top backup to the Tatum/Brown/Hayward wing rotation.

Fringe rotation/wildcard options (a chance of 5-10 minutes per game for one)

Carsen Edwards: Hard to see him getting much of a chance unless Wanamaker winds up in a funk. The only exception will be his speed/strength being useful against quicker guards in certain matchups compared to Wanamaker. The defensive numbers with Wanamaker on the floor remain terrific, so it’s hard to justify playing Edwards right now beyond trying to develop him. As a second-round pick, that shouldn’t be a huge priority for this team as composed though.

Javonte Green: A nice athletic alternative on the wing, he’s filled in the void nicely for an injured Romeo Langford. Outside of Stevens searching for a spark, he will be relegated to the end of the bench depth now with Hayward back.

Vincent Poirier: He wasn’t playing before and that won’t change with Hayward back. If centers are struggling one night, he may get a chance but he also looks like a candidate to lose his roster spot via trade if a move is made.

Romeo Langford: His injuries have taken away his realistic chance at consistent minutes this season with this club. Development in Maine awaits once he gets healthy.

A roadmap of minutes:

240 minutes per game

128 divided between Hayward/Walker/Brown/Tatum
28 for Smart
20 for Theis
15 for Kanter
10 for Rob Williams
15 for Ojeleye
15 for Wanamaker
0-9 for wildcard piece/distributed among rest of starters