The official start of trade season is still a few weeks away (December 15th) but there is already plenty of chatter about potential additions to a Celtics roster that certainly has a couple of areas of need. The 2019-20 season provides a unique situation for the C’s and several other potential contenders (or near-contenders) as there is no clear cut favorite for the first time since 2015. The Warriors have been dismantled and while there are top tier threats (Clippers, Bucks, Lakers), there will likely be 5-10 teams entering the postseason that think they have a legitimate shot of taking the title if everything goes right for them. Based on their strong start, the Celtics could be one of those squads but a boost in depth after their top five players will need to be a priority if the C’s are serious about contending.
Danny Ainge has stood pat predominately in the past two seasons with midseason additions and that strategy has come back to haunt him a bit as injuries hit (2018 postseason) and chemistry issues (2019 postseason) overcome.
Chemistry certainly won’t be an issue with this group but there is a lot of inexperience on the bench that will be tough to rely on in playoff situations for consistency. With five rookies in the mix along with some redundancy in a couple of areas of the roster, just finding a reliable bench piece or two could raise the ceiling of this group.
Exactly who those players are, we don’t know just yet but we will investigating a number of key potential trade pieces and areas of need for Boston in the coming weeks as trade season approaches.
To get us ready, let’s get a better idea of what the Celtics have to work with their own assets and what type of players they will be able to realistically trade for when it comes to salaries.
Not for sale
Don’t expect any of the team’s best five players to go anywhere. Kemba Walker is a newly signed and sealed star. Jaylen Brown can’t technically be traded after signing his extension. The C’s wouldn’t give up Jayson Tatum for Anthony Davis. Gordon Hayward was playing the best basketball of his career and the same goes for Marcus Smart this year. All of this is a long way of saying that these guys won’t be touched in the coming months for an in-season trade. It’s not that the C’s would be unwilling to discuss them but there is no top-tier player expected to be available that could justify moving any of them.
Unlikely to be moved (most secure to least secure)
Daniel Theis: The big man has been one of the best bargains in the NBA this year, manning the middle for a top-10 defense for 25-plus minutes per night. Given his familiarity with the system and cheap price tag for next season as well ($5 million), he’s worth keeping around even if another big man is brought in. It’s unlikely to think the C’s would get equal bang for the buck, given his salary, so I’d mark him as safe barring an injury or a significant drop-off in performance.
Rob Williams: Another cheap piece that is projected to be a long-term starting center for this group. He won’t help as much in the interim as a guy like Theis but the fact that he’s under contract until 2022 makes him an appealing chip on a team that is very top-heavy with salaries on the wing and backcourt.
Grant Williams: The shooting has been ugly early on but he’s been one of the best big man defenders in this draft class and projects to be a bargain for the next few years thanks to the No. 22 salary spot. He’s under contract through 2023 and will earn a total of seven million over the next three years. That type of cost control will be tough to beat.
Brad Wanamaker: He’s making the league minimum and has been the most reliable contributor off the bench thus far once Smart was sent to the starting five.
Romeo Langford: His stock has dropped after a season marred by injuries thus far. That’s a bad time to sell on the No. 14 overall pick, even if his salary would help make some deals work.
Carsen Edwards: He may just be a second-round pick but three guaranteed years of a contract indicate just how much the team likes him. Despite a slow start to the season, it’s hard to see him being used as a sweetener in a deal given his cheap price tag.
If the price is right…
Enes Kanter (Salary: $4.7 million): The prized free-agent signing has been the third choice of Stevens in the center rotation most nights so far. That could change if he finds more of a comfort level in this offense, but his defensive issues have not gone anywhere since arriving in Boston. Moving him probably shouldn’t happen without an adequate replacement (via trade or a buyout free agent signing) since the team will need his rebounding/bulk in certain matchups. However, he’s a less valuable piece on this roster than Theis and Rob Williams right now. The C’s are going to need some salary in any eventual deal for a non-rookie contract and Kanter makes enough to open up some options.
Vincent Poirier ($2.5 million): I’d be shocked if all four Celtics centers remain on this roster by the end of the year. Poirier is certainly at the bottom of the depth chart for now but he’s cheap and under contract through 2021 at low money. With Grant Williams’ emergence as a center, Poirier has been a bit redundant as far as a roster standpoint goes. That could change if injuries hit Rob Williams or Kanter but for now, moving him takes away the least from the roster at the moment. His $2.5 million won’t bring back many potential options but combining him with another player may change that.
Semi Ojeleye ($1.6 million): Another player that still has some value for Boston due to his defense and familiarity with the system. He’s not a giveaway for the team but he’s not much more than that given the lack of offensive game he has at 24. He could serve as a sweetener for some team since he’s signed for just $1.7 million next year, (unguaranteed) but he’s not enough of a prospect anymore to get a deal done on his own for a useful bench upgrade.
Javonte Green ($898,310): He’s a fun 15th man and has team control for another year at minimum money but he’s simply salary filler in any kind of trade due to his age (26). C’s won’t be looking to move on from him but they can certainly upgrade this spot. With Langford hurt though, he’s been an important deep bench piece so far.
Salary matching rules
This is where things get important for the C’s. With so few big salaries on the roster they are willing to move, the team will be limited in terms of who they can go after (unless they package away several players in a deal for one player). Here are the exact rules when it comes to salary matching for non-tax teams like Boston.
C’s send out: 0-$6.5 million:
C’s can take back: 175% of outgoing salary plus $100,000
C’s send out: $6.5 million-$19.6 million
C’s can take back: Outgoing salary plus $5 million
Analysis: Any deal not involving Kanter will likely produce players in the first category. For instance, a hypothetical Poirier and Ojeleye for Player X deal would allow the C’s to bring back a player(s) making $7 million or less.
Combine Kanter with Poirier or Ojeleye/Green and the possibilities grow by quite a bit. That pushes the C’s over $6.5 million in outgoing salary, which would allow them to bring back a player or players making $12-13 million total.
None of these players (Kanter, Poirier, Ojeleye, Green) will bring back much value on their own but if they are combined with a late first-round pick, the C’s can land a solid rotation player or two making reasonable money. Even expiring deals will be of use to Boston for the long-term since they will be under the cap anyway next summer and having Bird Rights on a future free agent will be useful for long-term team building.
What type of players can the Celtics target in this salary range? Stay tuned to BSJ in the coming weeks as we explore the possibilities in a number of different positions.
NBA news and notes
- Brad Stevens gave an encouraging injury update on Hayward this weekend noting that the swingman was cleared to shoot with his non-injured hand this week by doctors: “He’s shooting the ball, I don’t know how much else,” Stevens told reporters. “He is able to run up and down the court and do conditioning and do the bike and everything else. I don’t think he’s going to lose a lot on that end. That’s sometimes the issue with the injuries is that — especially leg injuries — it takes you a while to get up to speed conditioning-wise. But I don’t think that’ll be the case. I think he’ll be able to maintain that pretty well, which is good.” Hayward is expected to return in mid-December. The C’s have gone 4-3 without him thus far.
- Romeo Langford remains sidelined for the next two weeks with a sprained ankle he suffered in Maine according to Stevens.
- The NBA announced it is investigating a fan incident with Smart in Denver on Friday night after he yelled an offensive comment towards the C’s guard. “My foot got stuck in a chair and a fan told me, ‘That’s right, stay on the ground, get on your knees,’" Smart told reporters after the game. "Excuse me? You know what I’m saying. I just told him, ‘Listen, just watch the game,’ because, if we retaliate to you guys, or we were on the street, you probably wouldn’t say that. I guarantee you wouldn’t say that because we’re grown men just like you." Smart was not happy with how the incident was handled by Denver security.
- Be sure to check out the details of some radical proposed changes to the NBA schedule next decade as reported by Zach Lowe and Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com. My take? In favor of the play-in games. Not crazy about the re-seeding idea, especially with the balance of power evening out recently in both conferences. Additionally, a midseason tournament without some great incentive (besides extra cash) seems to be an idea destined to lose luster over the course of a long season.