Bedard: Positive and negative Patriots trends and how they might turn in the second half

At 8-1, much is going well for the Patriots as they emerge from the bye week and tackle the second half of their schedule.

That being said, even before this season, most looked at the Patriots' schedule and figured 8-0 was well within their grasp — they'd be favored in every game — and then we'd see after that. That's the way things played out.

An NFL season has many twists and turns, and so much changes both within a team and the league as a whole. It's very difficult to say because X has happened in the past, then Y will happen later in the season. So even trends are fleeting.

But we'll take a look at some numbers — both positive and negative — and forecast how they might work out in the second half as the Patriots build toward a seventh Super Bowl title.

POSITIVE TREND: Opponent passer rating inside the 30

2019: 35.6, 1st in NFL (Avg: 102.0)
2018: 94.5, 9th in NFL (Avg: 101.3)

Related stat: Patriots lead the league only allowing 12.5 percent of third downs in the red zone.

This is really an unbelievable number. It's just astounding how good the Patriots' defense has been in their own red zone, especially against the pass. Sure, the caliber of QBs faced has certainly been a factor, but I think this stat more than many others tells you how good the Patriots' defense is.

Second-half forecast: Obviously there's going to be some regression to the mean. The Patriots can't keep this up. That being said, I don't think there's going to be a ton of backsliding here given health. The Patriots are just too talented in the secondary to suddenly be really poor. Stephon Gilmore, Jason McCourty and Jonathan Jones are excellent. That's not going to change.

NEGATIVE TREND: Offensive rushes for negative yards

2019: 23, t-20th in NFL (22 avg.)
2018: 24, t-1st in NFL (39 avg.)

If you wanted a snapshot for how poor the Patriots' run blocking has been this season, this would be it. The Patriots basically have as many negative rushes at this point than they did all of last season. They've gone from the best in the league, to the bottom half of the league.

Second-half forecast: The first thing you need to look at is personnel, is it going to change all that much? Obviously you're hoping for Isaiah Wynn to replace Marshall Newhouse at left tackle. That will help. Matt LaCosse returning at tight end would help as well considering Ryan Izzo was one of the worst run blockers on the team. But there's still no fullback. And Ted Karras isn't going anywhere.

Do I think it will get better? Yes. Will it get a lot better to help make the offense more balanced? I have serious doubts.

POSITIVE TREND: TD percentage goal-to-go from 5 yards or less

2019: 92.3 percent, 3rd in NFL (78.7 avg.)
2018: 66.7 percent, t-28th (81 percent)

Related stat: Red zone TD percentage — 50 percent, 21st in the league

This doesn't feel right, but the numbers are the numbers. Basically, if the Patriots get to the 5-yard line or better, they are going to score. That sort of runs counter to their red-zone woes overall.

So what to take from that? This tells me the Patriots have not been very dangerous from outside the 5, which speaks more to the passing game than the running game. And this speaks to not having Rob Gronkowski, and why Mohamed Sanu is here.

Second-half forecast: I expect the Patriots to keep scoring well inside the 5, but emphasis must be put on scoring better from the high red area (15 yards and out) through the passing game. I think Sanu will help there. This is also an area where N'Keal Harry needs to have an impact. Tom Brady must work at incorporating him into the offense down there. A more viable tight end (Gronkowski — we can dream, or LaCosse) would also help immensely.

Also, I think it would be wise if Josh McDaniels started designing a few specific plays for James White and Rex Burkhead, in particular, to help in the red zone. Burkhead has been really good at that in the past (when he's healthy ... that would help too).

NEGATIVE TREND: QB pressure percentage allowed

2019: 30.0 percent (15 sacks, 43 hits, 61 hurries — 119 total)
2018 season: 22.2 percent (21 sacks, 50 hits, 99 hurries — 169 total)

Related stat:



So, yes, this has been an issue but I don't think it's been a huge issue with the offense. A rate of 30 is not great, but it's not terrible either.

But, obviously, the big issue is left tackle. Basically, the Patriots have allowed as much pressure there in nine games that the Patriots did in 19 games last season. That's an issue, but not unheard of. I place some blame on McDaniels and Dante Scarnecchia for not giving Newhouse more help. They should have kept a tight end more and gone with four passing targets.

However, there's a method to that madness. If the Patriots keep a tight end in, they are inviting more blitzes and I think they want to stay away from that as much as possible. That's part of the reason why they went tempo shotgun spread so much against Ravens — they didn't want Baltimore to call designer blitzes (common tactic against Rex Ryan).

It's smart in the regard that they'd rather take their chances with Brady picking out the right matchup than their blockers holding up.

Second-half forecast: Wynn is a better pass blocker, no question, but will he hold up? If not, we're back in the same situation.

Shaq Mason also needs to play a lot better. That would help more than anything.

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POSITIVE TREND: Passing for 4-plus yards on first down

2019: 56.6 percent, 7th in NFL (52.5 avg.)
2019: 62.3 percent, 2nd in NFL (53.7 avg.)

While this is not as good as last year's pace, I'd be pretty encouraged by this number. This shows that the Patriots' passing game is not the complete dumpster fire it appears to be at times, and shows that will a little more consistency, it would be a strength down the stretch. I think that's the plan.

Second-half forecast: This is actually an area where I think the offense is strong and will continue to get better as the protection improves (Wynn) and McDaniels sort of resets after the bye week and understands how to use his weapons — as limited as they might be — and incorporates Sanu more and more each week.

This number actually gives me a lot of optimism. I feel better already.

NEGATIVE TREND: 3nd-and-long (6-plus yards) offensive conversions

2019: 21.7 percent, t-26th in NFL (25.6 average)
2018: 28.0 percent, 9th in NFL (25.4 average)

To me, this is an all-encompassing number and shows some of the limitations of the offense and also the fear what might happen as they face better defenses.

To be in third-and-long means that the running game isn't working. So that's problem No. 1. To convert third and long, you need a variety of weapons that spread out the defense to offer Brady options. That's problem No. 2. This is where the absence of Gronkowski shows up. He might not have lit the world on fire, but he drew coverage and also came up with some conversions on his own (especially in the postseason).

Second-half forecast: Hard to tell, but I can tell you that this might be the most important offensive number in the second half of the season. If the Patriots can make progress here, then you should feel good about their chances against anyone.

However, if they stay around 20 percent in this area, then I'm going to have some real concerns about whether or not the offense can do enough against a team that can hold their own offensively against the Patriots, and plays decent defense.

The good thing for the Patriots, and I think this will be the answer for a lot of their shortcomings, the number of teams that fit that bill are very few and far between. The list, to me:

49ers
Ravens
Vikings
Saints
Eagles
Jaguars