NBA Notebook: Without Gordon Hayward, what's next for Celtics?

Gordon Hayward was playing some of the best basketball of his career during the past few weeks, helping pave the way for a 7-1 Celtics start before he suffered a fractured left hand on Saturday night in San Antonio. There is no definitive timeline yet for Hayward's return, but Brad Stevens made it sound like a return before the end of 2019 was a realistic possibility after the game.

“No timeline," Stevens said. "He’s going to meet with the doctors tomorrow and decide if he needs to do surgery or not. Sounds like, should he decide that, the surgery option might actually be a better timeline.”

He later added: “Doesn’t feel nearly as bad as it did two years ago. He’ll be back. But he’ll be off for a few weeks, or a month, or whatever it is.”

While Dr. Flynn covered possible scenarios for Hayward's recovery with BSJ already, it feels safe to assume Hayward will be out for at least a few weeks even in a best-case scenario. That leaves a lot of basketball to be played for the 7-1 Celtics as they try to stay atop the Eastern Conference with a key piece of the lineup. How exactly will the coaching staff and front office proceed after losing Hayward, who is averaging 18.9 points, 7.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists while shooting 55.5% overall and 43.3% from 3-point range this season? A look at the big decisions looming ahead and who stands to gain bigger roles because of it.

Who starts in place of Gordon Hayward?

The obvious choice here with Marcus Smart, but that’s a slam dunk in the sense that there is a huge drop-off from a talent and reliability standpoint for the rest of Boston’s bench if he's moved into the starting five on a full-time basis. To start, taking Smart out of the bench mix would put a whole lot of pressure on Brad Wanamaker to handle primary point guard duties with the second unit. He has looked sharp in that role over the last two games but that’s a heavy burden for the second-year guard who has been up and down this season as a whole. Stevens also likes Smart off the bench as a spark plug whenever possible and given this will be a prolonged absence, keeping him in that energy role so other rotations don’t need to be adjusted as much may be an appealing option for the coaching staff.

With the C’s starting five already heavy on scoring options in Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, bringing in a role piece into the starter mix like Javonte Green for spot minutes may be an easy way to help keep the bench at full strength while allowing Green to take advantage of some easy chances on offense with opposing defenses focused on other scoring options. Semi Ojeleye has been out of the rotation lately but even he could be called on for a few minutes each half if Stevens wants to trend towards a defensive focus while keeping Smart coming off the bench.

On the other hand, starting your next best player is never a bad idea and that’s clearly Smart in this circumstance. He replaces a lot of Hayward’s ball-handling and 3-point shooting ability on the offensive end while providing first-team defense that will take some pressure off the remainder of the starting five. Without Smart, the bench rotation would feature Wanamaker, Green, Grant Williams, Rob Williams splitting minutes with a returning Enes Kanter. It’s safe to say at least two starters should be on the floor with members of that group at all times but that’s a tweak Stevens could easily make.

Starting Smart feels like the odds-on favorite, but I wouldn’t rule out a creative alternative for Stevens to keep his sixth man in place.

Who takes Hayward’s minutes?

This is perhaps the more interesting question since even if Smart is inserted into the starting five, he was only playing a few minutes fewer than Hayward on average this year. That means there are 30 minutes up for grabs now for at least the next few weeks among a Celtics bench that has underwhelmed overall (despite playing very well over the last two games).

The biggest beneficiary in the interim has to be considered Green, who stands atop the wing depth chart on the bench for the time being. With Romeo Langford getting reps in Maine and Semi Ojeleye still providing non-existent offense, Green has produced a spark over the last two games averaging nine points in 12 minutes per contest. He doesn’t provide reliable outside shooting but his athleticism gives the C’s a unique threat in both transition and on cuts/dribble drives in the halfcourt. Penciling him in for at least 15 minutes a night now for the foreseeable future seems like a smart bet and perhaps even more if he continues this production.

Other names to be impacted:

Grant Williams: Enes Kanter may be coming back but Williams will be asked to provide some additional playing time at power forward now with the C’s shallow on wing depth. His playing time should remain at 15-20 minutes per game but just with more time at the four, especially if other wing options falter.

Brad Wanamaker: After his second straight strong performance against the Spurs, he’s put himself ahead of Carsen Edwards in the rotation as of now. If Smart ends up being inserted into the starting five, Wanamaker gets 10-15 minutes per night as a backup ballhandler.

Romeo Langford: The No. 14 overall pick made his rookie debut with the Maine Red Claws on Saturday night (27 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 6 blocks) and it’s safe to say that visit up north will be a brief one with Hayward sidelined. The C’s may give him another couple days up there to get him closer to full strength (if needed) but with the team lacking true wing depth with Hayward out, he should be called back to Boston soon. Langford will still be at the end of the bench for now but one more injury or some foul trouble might force Stevens to turn to him in certain situations.

Semi Ojeleye: After being cut out of the rotation once again this week following a brutal offensive start, odds are he gets some more spot minutes here and there against tough defensive matchups in the next month. He’s running out of chances to convince Stevens that he’s worthy of a regular rotation spot so this might be his last chance this year.

Carsen Edwards: Don’t expect this to do much for his minutes unless Stevens wants to play him and Wanamaker together over someone like Green. He will be hoping that Smart gets pushed into the starting five to open up this possibility. The second-round pick will get his chances here and there for minutes but looks to behind Wanamaker and Green for now after a slow shooting start to the year. That won’t change after Hayward’s injury.

Vincent Poirier: Once Kanter gets healthy, could see him being relegated to inactive duty if Langford is brought back up to the big club.

Could Celtics add trade help in the interim at the wing?

Unlikely. Free agents signed this summer aren’t eligible to be traded until December 15th and that’s the majority of Boston’s movable trade pieces on this roster right now beyond the rookies. Hayward could be back (or nearing a return) by that point so I’d expect the C’s to roll with what they have internally for the next month or so, assuming Hayward is projected back by the end of the year.

Will Celtics be able to stay afloat at the top of the East without Hayward?

The Celtics shocked the NBA world two years ago by managing to stay in the top-two of the East for a full season without their All-Star wing. The path this time should be far less daunting with Hayward not expected to miss more than a month or two. Let’s measure how much of an impact the upcoming schedule that will have on this 7-1 squad.

Upcoming games

Next 30 days: 16 games (8 home/8 road)
Next six weeks: 23 games (12 home/11 road)

Strength of schedule for Next 30 days: 9 projected playoff opponents

The East is very top-heavy for now with five squads (Toronto, Miami, Milwaukee, Philadelphia) that should be jockeying for homecourt advantage all year long. The Bucks are the clear cut favorites for the No. 1 seed but things look pretty wide open after that, especially in the wake of a three-game losing streak by the Sixers (albeit on a tough road trip). Given the toughness of a potential 4/5 first-round matchup against one of these squads, staying in the top three seems like a realistic priority for the C’s over the long-term in the wake of this injury and that is a feasible scenario.

The encouraging part of the C’s performance Saturday night is that they really didn’t skip a beat without Hayward in the second half of their Spurs beatdown. Jaylen Brown (30 points) is ready to take a chunk of Hayward’s shots and the C’s bench rotation is coming into better focus now that Green has been given an opportunity. It’s not going to be easy with a five-game west coast trip looming but an above .500 record over the next month (10-6?) does not feel like a big reach even without Hayward. The depth will be tested now but there will be a few weaker opponents this week (vs. Washington, @ Golden State) to help Stevens with some experimenting as he navigates these waters and waits for Hayward to return.

"I just told (Gordon) to keep his head up," Stevens told reporters after the game. "At the end of the day, that's all you can do. He's worked hard. He'll be in good shape. He'll keep himself in good shape and he'll be ready to go when he gets back. But now he needs to help encourage some of our wings off the bench to be ready to be called upon to add value to winning every night."

It’s a brutal blow for Hayward given how well he was playing but my guess is this injury will just be a blip on the radar when the story of this season is written. If everyone keeps playing to their potential, this group is positioned well to withstand this absence.

"Every year you go through stuff, where different things happen, and different guys go down,” Stevens told reporters in San Antonio. “We've already seen some guys, some really good players in this league, get hurt, and it's up to everybody else to pick up the slack and do their jobs. This one doesn't feel nearly as bad as it did two years ago. He'll be back. He'll be off for a few weeks or a month or whatever he is."