Holy hell.
That's really all I had left to say after re-watching the Patriots' offensive performance in their 35-14 victory over the Giants. It was as bad as you thought watching it live.
I've never really seen anything like it from this outfit. There have certainly been poor offensive games from the Patriots — last season had plenty of them — but this was just systematically terrible. The only game that really rivals it in my own mind was the 2015 41-14 Monday Night Massacre at Kansas City. Possibly last year at Tennessee.
It was so bad that now I have to invent statistics to quantify how bad this was.
I bring you, Failed Play Percentage. Taking out seven short-yardage plays and kneeldowns, the Patriots had 23 failed plays (basically, any runs 2 yards or less, negative passes and turnovers). That's 32.4 percent. So the Patriots basically failed on one of every three snaps.
That sure seems like a lot to me, but I don't have any reference. However, STATS LLC has been tracking a Successful Play Percentage for several years, and while the exact formula isn't explained, it's much more stringent (a quality rush: 1st Down — a rush play achieves greater than or equal to 40% of the yardage necessary for a 1st Down; 2nd Down — a rush play that achieves greater than or equal to 50% of the yardage necessary for a 1st Down; 3rd and 4th Down — a rush play that results in a 1st Down). The league average this season, for example, is 48.8 percent.
The Patriots this season actually are above the league average at 49.6 percent. But their league ranking and how they fail to stack up to previous Patriots offenses really tells the tale of woe for this group.
We'll dispel with some of the misconceptions about this group by ranking the issues that are killing the efficiency of this offense. Marshall Newhouse, Sony Michel, the pass protection, Ryan Izzo (he was bad in this game, but we'll explain why he was a patsy), Josh McDaniels and the lack of #weaponzzz WILL NOT be prominent on the list — but here's the chart that sort of tells you where this offense is right now.
How the Patriots stack up in Successful Play Percentage, going back all the way to 2001:
Basically, this — 13th in the league in efficiency — is uncharted territory for the Patriots' offense in the modern passing game. Since Tom Brady's injury in 2008, the Patriots have basically been in the top six nearly every season, and they've finished in the top 2 five times.
The two previous times they've been eighth or worse, they wound up losing in the AFC Championship Game in Denver thanks to anemic offenses (26-16, 20-18).
That's not to suggest that I think this team will suffer the same fate — New England has never seen a defense like this in the past 10 years, so the team is better overall — but it underscores just how dreadful they've been.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
(Adam Richins for BSJ)