McAdam: Waiting for Theo Epstein's return to the Red Sox? Don't be ... yet

A team several years removed from its first championship in several decades, thought to be a virtual lock for a wild card spot, instead suffers a late-season collapse, failing to make the postseason. As a result, the same manager who led them to a historic World Series, is on the final year of his deal and, it's widely accepted, will not return.

With the franchise seemingly heading in the wrong direction after a number of playoff appearances, rumors begin to circulate that perhaps the man in charge of the Baseball Operations might also be looking for a change and a new challenge.

Sound familiar?

Of course it does.

It perfectly describes Theo Epstein in 2011 in Boston. And, not incidentally, Theo Epstein right now.

The end of the 2019 Cubs season bears an uncomfortable resemblance to the nightmarish finish to the 2011 Red Sox season, when Terry Francona was told he wouldn't be returning and Epstein, of his own volition, soon followed him out the door.

Moreover, in recent days, the chatter about Epstein becoming the prodigal son and coming back to Boston have only grown, with speculation appearing locally and nationally.

But Red Sox fans hoping for a reversal of eight years ago -- with Epstein returning to his hometown to take over the Red Sox again are very likely to be disappointed.

Here are a few reasons why a reunion almost certainly won't happen this year:1. Epstein is under contract though 2021 with the Cubs.

Yes, it's true, Epstein also had term left on his contract when he bolted from Boston to Chicago in 2011 and it's possible he could negotiate a release from his current deal under the guise of going back to Boston, where his parents, twin brother and in-laws still reside.

But Epstein is said to be determined to see his contract through with the Cubs, intent on turning the franchise around before his contract expires.

Epstein felt compelled to address the rumors Wednesday.

"There's nothing to that story,'' said Epstein. "I'm here. We have a lot we need to work on to get back to the level we're accustomed to. I'm invested in that.''

And remember a key distinction between his tenure in Boston. Epstein won two titles in Boston and came within a run in Game 7 of the 2008 ALCS of having a chance to win a third. In Chicago, Epstein won once (2016) and has seen the Cubs going backward ever since: losing in the NLCS in 2017; losing in the NL wild-card game in 2018; and missing the postseason altogether this season.

There's more unfinished business in Chicago. For one thing, there likely is a new manager to hire, with Joe Maddon all but gone from Wrigley.

2. The Red Sox ownership situation may still be off-putting.

You may recall that it did not end well for Epstein. First, there was the brief sabbatical after the 2005 season when Epstein was locked in a power struggle with then-team president Larry Lucchino.

Later in his tenure, Epstein worried that ownership was more concerned with marketing and TV ratings than it was in putting a championship-caliber team on the field.

Time has a way of healing past issues, and Epstein's relationship with ownership is nowhere near as strained as the one, say, between former manager Francona and ownership. But it's logical to assume that some issues remain.

And in Epstein's absence, things have hardly solidified. The Sox pushed aside Epstein's protégé Ben Cherington less than two years after winning the 2013 World Series. That move deeply disappointed Epstein.

The recent dismissal of Dombrowski, meanwhile, some 11 months after winning 119 games and another World Series, only further advanced the perception around the game that Fenway is an impossible place to work with no room for error, and, when things go wrong, no support from the powers that be.

One important change in Red Sox management in recent years -- Epstein's childhood best friend, Sam Kennedy, replacing Lucchino -- would serve as a lure. But likely not enough to convince Epstein that now is the time to come back home.

3. Real life intervenes.

Epstein has two school-aged children and may be at the point of his life where he desires to spend more time with them.

In Chicago, Epstein has spent the last eight seasons building the organization he wants. His right-hand man, Jed Hoyer, is his general manager and Epstein recently promoted longtime associate Jason McLeod, giving him additional responsibilities.

It's not as if the Cubs' organization runs itself. But there's more stability and familiarity in place.

If Epstein were to return to Boston, there would be more demands on his time and more rebuilding to do and family time might be reduced.

Down the road, when Epstein's deal has expired and he has an opportunity to re-assess what he wants to do next, the timing might be better suited for Epstein to come back to Boston. In fact, given his family ties, such a return almost seems inevitable at some point.

But not, it would seem, this winter.