How will NBA's new salary cap projections impact the Celtics in 2020 and beyond?

The NBA informed teams of a new salary cap projection for the 2020-21 and 2021-22 season on Monday in a league memo. These cap projections are usually updated around twice a season to help teams plan for the future with their own cap situation.

The most recent projections indicate a bit of a dip in available spending money for franchises in 2020-21 as the new forecast calls for just a $116 million salary cap and $141 million luxury tax threshold for the 2020-21 campaign. That’s a million-dollar drop-off in both areas from past projections, but still represents a sizable jump from the $109 million cap number in 2019-20 as well as the $132.6 million luxury tax threshold.

The league also indicated that there would be a $125 million salary projection for 2021-22 and a $151 million luxury tax line.

So what kind of impact will these new projections have when it comes to the Celtics and the free agency picture in the years to come? Let’s take stock at a few areas to monitor from a C’s perspective, along with the ripple effects leaguewide.

Celtics under contract for 2020-21
Kemba Walker ($34.3 million)
Gordon Hayward ($34.1 million - player option)
Marcus Smart ($13.4 million)
Jayson Tatum ($9.8 million once team option is picked up in October)
Enes Kanter ($5 million - player option - likely to opt-out since it's an under-market deal)
Romeo Langford ($3.6 million)
Vincent Poirier ($2.6 million)
Grant Williams ($2.5 million)
Robert Williams ($2.0 million once team option is picked up in October)
Semi Ojeleye ($1.8 million non-guaranteed)
Carsen Edwards ($1.5 million)

Guaranteed money committed if Hayward opts out: $72.8 million to nine players

Guaranteed money committed if Hayward opts in: $106.9 million to ten players

How much money could the Celtics have to realistically spend in the summer of 2020?

There wasn’t going to be much flexibility for Boston to begin with if two things happen:

1. Gordon Hayward opts into his $34.1 million player option
2. Jaylen Brown is extended a qualifying offer (resulting in a $19.6 million cap hold)

However, if last season taught us anything, it’s not to take anything for granted when it comes to team-building with this squad. The odds of both Kyrie Irving and Al Horford not being on this team for the 2019-20 season were very small at this point last summer.

However, things changed in a major way over the course of the last 12 months, leading to a team with plenty of new faces for this fall and the departures of Irving and Horford among others.

When it comes to decisions in the summer of 2020 the bigger certainty seems to be Hayward’s player option for now. Even if Hayward has a nice bounce-back season in 2019-20 and returns to All-Star form, the odds of him finding a massive payday from a team outside Boston next summer is a long shot at best. The flurry of big-money signings this past summer by contenders means there are only a handful of teams that are projected to have max salary room next summer. Among those teams, many are younger/rebuilding squads, so a 30-year-old Hayward would not necessarily be a strong fit for them.

For that reason, it’s hard to surmise any scenario (besides a trade) in which Hayward is not on Boston’s books next summer barring a career-best year. There is always a chance he could opt out and sign a longer-term deal for less annual money (i.e. what the C’s thought Horford would do in June before signing with the Sixers). I wouldn’t expect an opt-out to happen though unless a new longer deal has already been agreed upon with Boston. Otherwise, Hayward’s reps won’t have the leverage needed due to a lack of other free-agent options.

With that in mind, it’s clear the C’s will be looking at moderate cap space at best ($10-20 million) if Hayward opts in or takes a reduced salary for a long-term deal. However, if Brown is still on the roster (i.e. not traded) this season in June, his sizable cap hold of $19.6 million will essentially eat up any hypothetical remaining cap room next summer. As a restricted free agent, the C’s will own Brown’s rights so they will certainly use that leverage to keep the door open for them to match contracts or use Brown in a sign-and-trade if they don’t sign him outright.

Essentially, the only way the Celtics are going to be active players in free agency in 2020 beyond the mid-level exception ($9.9 million) with this reduced cap projection is if Hayward/Brown are not part of their plans beyond this season. Given the fact that the 2020 free agency class is very underwhelming outside of Anthony Davis, it’s hard to foresee a scenario where the C’s prioritize having big money to spend in 2020.

What about the summer of 2021?

With a $125 million salary cap projection for the 2021-22 season, this is where the planning gets more intriguing for Boston. Currently, only Kemba Walker ($36 million) and Marcus Smart ($14 million) are signed to big-money deals for 2020-21. Rookie contracts for Robert Williams, Carsen Edwards, Grant Williams and Romeo Langford take up another $12 million of the cap for the time being. That leads to $62 million for just six players with a massive amount of cap room potentially in play to hypothetically chase a big-name free agent or two.

However, Boston has a number of big decisions to make before they get to that point. Will they agree to a deal with Hayward when he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2021? Did Brown sign an extension in the summer of 2020 that would likely take up (at least) $20 million of cap room for the 2020-21 season?

Jayson Tatum is also scheduled to become a restricted free agent in the summer of 2021 and it’s hard to foresee him signing for less than the max if his progression continues. Long-term pacts for Tatum and Brown will essentially eat up all of Boston’s hypothetical cap space that summer when combined with the remaining deals on the books.

Are Walker/Tatum/Brown/Hayward the building blocks of a championship core? It’s too early to know at this point but a big decision has to be made by the front office on whether the franchise wants to pay them as such in the next two summers. If not, Boston could try to go shopping in the summer of 2021 with plenty of flexibility on their books.

There will be a number of other x-factors in play in the next two seasons (draft picks, Theis/Kanter options, etc.) but the long-term future of this franchise, for now, centers around what’s next for Tatum, Brown and Hayward as the franchise tries to bounce back from losing Irving and Horford without compensation.