BOLTON — With NHL training camps set to open up all across North America later this week, it looks as though dominoes are finally starting to fall in what has been a stagnant restricted free agent market this summer.
Entering Monday morning, a number of NHL clubs had so far failed to find the common ground needed to bring their young star players back into the fold by way of their first big payday.
Less than a week until Boston’s roster is expected to report to Warrior Ice Arena for its first full practice session of the 2019-20 season, Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo have still yet to sign the dotted lines on new contracts.
But Don Sweeney is far from the only GM playing the waiting game when it comes to RFAs.
Along with McAvoy/Carlo, other young skaters like Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, Brayden Point, Patrik Laine, Matthew Tkachuk, Ivan Provorov, Brock Boeser and Kyle Connor have all failed to sign new deals.
But one party finally blinked Monday, as the Blue Jackets announced that 22-year-old defenseman Zach Werenski agreed to a three-year, $15 million contract — finally setting the market for the remaining RFA blueliners.
But how comparable is Werenski to another top-pairing defenseman like McAvoy, especially when it comes to setting both term and salary on a new deal?
In terms of potentially setting the market for the rest of the RFA defensemen, Werenski’s deal has to be good news for Sweeney and Co., with the Blue Jackets only having to shell out $15 million over a three-year, “bridge” contract.
But on second glance, it's actually pretty good for both team and player. Werenski’s deal is a bit interesting when it comes to its annual cap hit over the life of the contract, with TSN reporting that the money breaks down as follows:
2019-20 season: $4,000,000 cap hit
2020-21 season: $4,000,000 cap hit
2021-22 season: $7,000,000 cap hit
That’s pretty great value for the Blue Jackets in Years 1 & 2 of the contract, but the higher payday in Year 3 is also important for Werenski — and for many other RFAs that might not enter unrestricted free agent (UFA) status within three years.
While Werenski will be eligible for salary arbitration by the time this latest contract expires in 2022, he does not become a UFA until the end of 2022-23 season. So, by the time his new contract is up, he can either:
- Work out a new contract extension with the Blue Jackets (and potentially set himself up for an even bigger payday).
- Go to arbitration or take a one-year, qualifying offer, which can be no less than his salary in the previous year — setting the stage for at least another $7 million payout in his final year before unrestricted free agency.
Zach Werenski (3x5m extension with Columbus) is a very weak 5v5 defender whose defensive weaknesses have been obscured by generous zone and teammate deployment, and whose 5v5 point totals have been inflated in recent years by playing lots of minutes with Artemi Panarin. pic.twitter.com/eKBYvmMwoA
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) September 9, 2019
Werenski deal could be a catalyst for McAvoy and Provorov, but no guarantee either. Of the two big RFA D, McAvoy has proclaimed his love for BOS and it would appear he’s much more inclined to want to a longer-term deal (6, 7 or 8?) than a bridge (2 or 3).
— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) September 9, 2019
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, Corsica, Corey Sznajder, Sean Tierney and HockeyViz.