I had this season prediction column all laid out in my mind ... and then the Patriots and Antonio Brown turned the NFL world on its head.
And everything changed. Or maybe it didn't. We don't know. The Patriots don't know.
(I also wouldn't be shocked if the NFL investigated this entire transaction, mostly the actions of Brown and agent Drew Rosenhaus, and the league would be justified in doing so. Something feels off about this, but that doesn't mean it was against the rules. If the NFL chooses to look into this, that would be fair and not part of some grand anti-Patriots conspiracy.)
That's the issue with bringing Brown into the fold. The most flatline and consistent organization in the history of professional sports, just invited one of the biggest unknown variables into its locker room.
This could either be spectacular, or it could be terrible. Or somewhere in between. Your guess is literally as good as mine, or Bill Belichick's. No one, not even the Great Hoodie. knows how this is going to go.
I have been on record for being in favor of this move. Don't mistake that for saying that it's going to work. I think it will, but I'm not sure. Brown is simply so talented that he's worth the risk if the Patriots covered their exposure in the contract. And I also believe the core of this Patriots team, rebuilt after the 2009-12 neglect, is strong enough to withstand a possible Brown implosion, which is always on the table.
But to say there is absolutely no risk in this move is patently false — not only if Brown did indeed get $9 million guaranteed, but also for on-field reasons. And, yes, that means signing Brown could possibly put another Super Bowl title at risk.
Here's how, and then we'll get into our season prediction and some thoughts on the Steelers game:
Say Brown comes in and is the good soldier we expect him to be. The Patriots put all of Brown's immense talents to use to the point that he's averaging anywhere from 10-20 touches a game. That may seem absurd, but you really haven't seen Brown used the way the Patriots will use him, which is basically to do a little bit of everything.
The Patriots get to the point by about Week 12 where things are really cooking and everyone knows their roles and understands Brown's place at the top of the totem pole. By that point, the Patriots and Tom Brady understand where to go with the ball in big spots and different situations. Players are very comfortable with what they're doing, and there's a rhythm to it. The Patriots, who were mostly a running team last year, are now decidedly a passing attack with a good balance.
Suddenly, Brown, after neutering himself at the start of his Patriots career, is now feeling himself and says something dumb about an upcoming opponent in an interview or on Instagram. That draws the ire of Belichick, who benches Brown for an entire game and costs Brown money. Brown further starts to act out, gets in the face of Josh McDaniels at halftime of the Chiefs game (straight out of the Randy Moss playbook), and then, like that, it's over. Belichick tells Brown not to bother showing up anymore while the team waits to recoup a third-round comp pick next offseason.
At that point, the Patriots adjust like they always do. They still have Josh Gordon (maybe), Demaryius Thomas (maybe), N'Keal Harry (maybe), Julian Edelman and James White. The backfield is full and talented. The offensive line is strong again. They'll be fine.
Right? Maybe not.
Yes, in theory — and perhaps in application — the Patriots have more than enough to win a Super Bowl, especially with a very good defense. They have more offensive talent than they did when New England beat the Rams.
But now you're asking the Patriots, Brady and McDaniels to suddenly, this late in the season, to figure out their new identity and how they're going to make big plays in pressure spots. Everyone's role will have to change on the fly. Guys who weren't being counted on, suddenly will.
The team that basically invented the Next Man Up mantra should have no issues with that, many will say. And I can understand why. But offensive performance is so much about rhythm and feel ... it's tough to recreate that in a short period of time, even with players with a lot of experience in the system. And that literally could be the difference between the Patriots losing the AFC Championship Game to the Chiefs, and winning the Super Bowl.
So, yes, Brown is worth the risk and I think this will go at least reasonably well for the Patriots. And I haven't really adjusted my expectations for this team. But don't say there's no risk to this move. There most certainly is. And it could wind being an immense amount. That's the unknown variable.
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I have the Patriots going 13-3 and winning the Super Bowl over the Saints. I don't think any of the AFC teams are true contenders against New England, including Kansas City, which has some issues on defense the Patriots can exploit.
I think the Patriots' defense will be very good, but I wouldn't go nuts on that. They will still have games where talented offenses with mobile quarterbacks will give their regimented scheme fits. And the Patriots might just have to outscore the Chiefs, Texans and Saints of the world, which is why Brown is here.
The offense will be a work in progress, but at least the Patriots have a weapon that will have to be respected by defensive coordinators. Josh Gordon is talented, but he's not that.
I'm worried about the health of this group. The Patriots were very lucky last season. That usually evens out at some point.
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As for tonight's game. Things I'm looking for:
- Patriots offensive line vs. Steelers defensive line: Cameron Heyward, Javon Hargrave and Stephon Tuitt are probably the best trio in the league. Tuitt, especially, is outstanding. He's long and strong and just a general pain in the ass. This is a huge challenge for center Ted Karras right out of the gate, and Shaq Mason will need to be on point against Tuitt. If Brady gets spooked early, all bets are off.
- Marcus Cannon vs. T.J. Watt: Watt completely owned Cannon last year in this contest to the point he was in Brady's head. I expect Cannon to be better, but Watt is coming in very confident about this matchup. Let's get it on.
- Brady against pressure: This could tell the tale of the regular season. Brady didn't love getting hit last year, and it was a factor until he suddenly didn't care about it in the postseason. If Brady plays like an old man who doesn't want to get hit again, the Patriots' regular-season record could take a hit.
- Patriots pass backs: I would expect the Patriots to use multiple running backs in the passing game at the same time and you know the Steelers won't be prepared for that.
- Not JuJu: You know the Patriots will clamp down on JuJu Smith-Schuster and make Ben Roethlisberger beat them with someone else. I don't think the Steelers have enough.