Ever since the conclusion of the Big Three era, the Celtics have made a point of stockpiling draft picks. They added three first-round picks initially when dealing away Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce in the summer of 2013 to Brooklyn. From there, they have slowly added to that collection periodically by dealing away other rotation pieces (Jeff Green, Rajon Rondo) or leveraging some of their draft selections into additional first-round choices (Jayson Tatum trade).
As the start of the 2019-20 regular season approaches, the Celtics’ surplus of first-round choices is on the verge of coming to an end. Let’s take a closer look at what is left in the asset cupboard following a summer in which the Celtics elected to use four draft picks to fill out the bottom half of their roster.
The crown jewel
The Memphis first-round pick
Protections: 1-6 in 2020, unprotected in 2021.
Acquired via: Jeff Green trade in 2015
Analysis: This remains the most valuable first-round pick in the league not owned by its respective team. Memphis itself didn’t have a bad offseason from a long-term perspective but they should be among the bottom-six teams in 2020. They are primarily in asset accumulation mode, picking up first-round picks from Utah (Mike Conley trade), Golden State (Andre Iguodala). They added a couple of young players on solid value contracts in Tyus Jones and Jonas Valanciunas, while adding Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke in the draft.
There is some potential for growth under new head coach Taylor Jenkins (former assistant with Milwaukee) but it’s still safe to project that this team will be in the basement of the standings against a loaded Western Conference.
Like the Sacramento pick last year, the Celtics will have to make a calculated gamble on the risk/reward of keeping this selection over the next two seasons. The addition of a win-now player in Kemba Walker this summer who is approaching the tail end of his prime at age 29 makes holding onto it a risky proposition. The Grizzlies have enough talent where they could be on the upswing in 2021 as the Kings were last year, turning a potential top-5 selection into the No. 14 pick by draft night. The Kings pick losing so much value over nine months of surprise success by Sacramento could be a warning sign to Boston to sell on this selection while the value still projects to be high.
On the flip side of the coin, the problem remains finding a player that’s worth moving it for. Outside of Bradley Beal, there are no All-Stars expected to hit the trade market in the next 12 months. Moving this choice for any other type of player would potentially be selling low given the possible upside of the pick. Monitoring the trade market and Memphis’ progression this season will be essentially for Boston’s brass to ensure they maximize this asset. Some of it will come down to luck but Danny Ainge can certainly mitigate some of that risk by being proactive with it.
The extra first-rounder
Bucks first-round pick
Protections: Top 7 for 2020, Unprotected in 2021
Acquired via: 2019 draft night trade (No. 24/Baynes)
Analysis: The Celtics were wisely able to kick the can on one of their first-round picks in the 2019 NBA Draft by accomplishing two goals in the transaction. Boston traded the No. 24 overall pick in 2019 (acquired from Philadelphia) to Phoenix (they selected Ty Jerome) along with Aron Baynes in exchange for the 2020 pick from the Bucks.
The move first served as a way for Boston to dump the $5.4 million salary of Baynes on draft night without taking back any current salary. This ended up being an important way for the Celtics to open up the necessary cap room (along with some other draft night maneuvering) to open up enough cap space to sign Kemba Walker (he was eventually traded into that open space).
In addition to opening the door for Walker without giving up assets to dump Baynes, the Celtics kicked the can one more year on a future first-round pick. There is no real question on when the C’s will be receiving this selection (the Bucks won’t be a lottery team in 2020) but it gives the Celtics one additional first-round pick to use as a probable trade asset in the next 12 months. Boston didn’t need to bring yet another rookie to an already younger roster this year so they managed to replenish the draft assets pool for one more year with this selection that’s likely to fall in the late 20s. Whether Boston uses it as a sweetener in a blockbuster deal or another route, it’s an important tool for the C’s to have in the years to come.
Second-round picks
Hawks 2020 second-round pick
Top 55 protected
Acquired via: Jabari Bird trade at 2019 trade deadline
Analysis: This is highly unlikely to convey since it was a highly protected selection for the Hawks taking on the contract of Jabari Bird along with cash at the trade deadline last year to open up a roster spot for Boston. Atlanta will need to be a top-5 team in the NBA next year for the C’s to get this pick and that’s not going to happen.
Worst of Nets/Knicks 2020 second-round picks
Acquired via: Terry Rozier sign-and-trade
Analysis: The final return for the former C’s point guard was a modest one after years of trade rumors. The C’s helped the Hornets and Rozier out by offering to use their Bird Rights to sign-and-trade reserve guard in July to a Hornets team that could only offer the mid-level exception otherwise to the 24-year-old guard. In exchange for sending Rozier the Hornets way, they elected to send back a 2020 second-round pick, albeit a weak one. The Nets are projected to be a better team than the Knicks this year and this pick will probably fall in the late 40s or high 50s, giving it a pretty low chance of ever helping out the C’s.
Final thoughts
For years, the Celtics have avoided digging into their own draft selections to make trades but the time for that will return after 2020 unless the C’s are able to leverage these first-round picks once again. The pressure is on the front office now to make the most of these choices after using so many picks in 2019. That rookie class looks promising so far but the road back to contention for Boston will likely be contingent upon the team maximizing these upcoming selections on the trade front. Otherwise, the C’s will only be able to work within their own selections (in the 20s) first-round picks for the foreseeable future.
Other NBA News and Notes
- Just brutal to see DeMarcus Cousins suffer his third serious injury in the past 19 months with a torn ACL this week. The veteran center had signed a $3.5 million deal with the Lakers this offseason, his second attempt to rehab his value on the open market with a one-year pact. The string of serious injuries should serve as a warning tale for big men from turning down extensions when they have the chance. Cousins bet on himself recovering during the past two offseasons and it’s hard to see him getting a big deal again in his career now.
- With Cousins out, rumors are swirling around the Lakers reaching out to Dwight Howard as a possible option at center this year. Howard is expected to be bought out by the Grizzlies at some point this summer. Joakim Noah would be a better fit in my mind for the Lakers given his willingness to do the dirty work down low.
- Very bizarre to see a member of the Kings (De’Aaron Fox) turn down a chance to be on Team USA so late in the process when he probably won’t be playing on a playoff team this year.
- Ty Lue appears to be ready to reunite with Doc Rivers in LA as an associate head coach. The Clippers continue to look more and more like the favorite this year out West.
- Old friend Kelly Olynyk had to pull out of the FIBA World Cup with a bruised knee. He’s expected to be ready for the start of training camp in Miami.