Road to 53, v.19.03: Guaranteed money, scheme fit could be big factors in final decisions

With the first preseason game in the books, you'd figure there would be more changes to our new 53-man roster but, alas, there were not.

There was just a 1-for-1 swap out from our last version and it's not all that shocking: I'm pulling cornerback Jonathan Jones off the trade block. I gained his roster spot from another defensive position and it pains me to do it.

READ: NFL Notebook — Patriots’ youth impressive, but finding roster spots for them will be tough

But there are a couple of factors involved with this version of the 53-man roster that we haven't touched on before: guaranteed money and scheme fit. They both could loom large over the final cuts. In the former's case, it will likely restrict the team's ability to make a few possibly blatant cut. The latter means some players aren't quite the fit they once were.

With that, here's my latest 53-man roster:





CHANGES IN THIS VERSION

I'm no longer trading Jonathan Jones: Have had that penciled in all offseason with Jones in a walk year and likely to cash in big after this season, but that was because I thought a) Duke Dawson would be ready to step up into that role, and b) someone would emerge at that spot.

Well, as you could see in the Lions game, Dawson is nowhere near ready to assume that role in a game. Not saying he can get there at some point, even before the season, but if the Steelers opener was tomorrow, Dawson would get eaten alive.

Also, I don't see anyone else on the roster capable of playing inside. Guys like Jason McCourty, J.C. Jackson, Joejuan Williams and Keion Crossen are better on the outside. They need more inside players, which why I think Dawson sticks for one more season. Terrence Brooks as an outside chance at playing the slot. I wouldn't rule that out.

Deatrich Wise is released because of fit: Yup, this one hurts. No one was on the Wise train earlier and more often than me, and for the most part he played to that high praise (he was second and fifth on the team in pressures his first two seasons), and you were looking for a breakout Year 3. But a funny thing happened on the way to that: he apparently had offseason ankle surgery to correct something that bothered him at the end of last year, and the Patriots have modified their scheme.

It's obvious that the Patriots will be more of a base 3-4 on the first two downs, and will use versatile rushers in the amoeba on passing downs. Where does that leave Wise? Not in a good place, in my opinion. Setting aside the fact that he hasn't looked great since coming back from injury, Wise isn't athletic enough to play on the edge in a 3-4, and he's not stout enough against the run inside to play on the line. If the Patriots are going with an amoeba, they're surely going to go with Michael Bennett, Dont'a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins and likely Chase Winovich as their rush package. If the Patriots need a little more stoutness to protect against the run, they would be more likely to sub Adam Butler (who also might be on the outside due to scheme when all is said and done), Byron Cowart or Mike Pennel before Wise. So, My Guy is out (tear).

LAST GUYS OUT

ED Shilique Calhoun: Great camp continued into the preseason game. He's a ready swap for Simon but, alas, the guaranteed money.

S Duron Harmon: Playing time got cut in the postseason, he doesn't play much on special teams (Obi Melifonwu does) and an extra CB stays instead of a safety.

WR Dontrelle Inman: After a total dud of a camp, Inman has come on in the last week and opened up some eyes in the game.

DT Nick Thurman: There's something there this kid, but might be redundant with Byron Cowart.

LAST GUYS IN

WR Braxton Berrios: Sure, had a decent game against scrubs the other night. There are no scrubs on Sundays.

GC James Ferentz: Only here because the Patriots won't go down to seven offensive linemen.

DT Adam Butler: For now, he's in. But like Wise, this might not be the right scheme for him anymore.

DE Derek Rivers: Essentially kept Rivers over Wise because Rivers fits the new scheme better in base and sub.

CB Duke Dawson: He was a second-round pick for a reason, and Belichick doesn't usually admit mistakes in that round this early.

S Obi Melifonwu: Still don't know if this guy is a football player, but his athletic ability wants to make me find out. Plus, he could easily take Harmon's place as a leader. Obi is good people.

A WORD ON GUARANTEED MONEY

Just about anybody who has a criticism about a 53-man roster will inevitably target a few players for exile to keep one of their binkies, like Braxton Berrios. Among those players often talked about in a release: Brian Hoyer (especially after Stidham's showing the other night), Rex Burkhead, John Simon and Jason McCourty.

One big problem with each: they all have some of their salaries guaranteed for this season, and not a little either.

Brian Hoyer: $1.5 million
Rex Burkhead: $1.5 million (this could go down as one of the worst extensions ever given by Belichick)
John Simon: $900,000
Jason McCourty: $2 million
TOTAL: $5.9 million

I actually had thoughts of releasing all four when it really comes down to it, but that is way too much money for the team to eat. Soley for those financial reasons, I think all four are on this roster and could cost them some possibly talented youngsters. Simon is the only one in any possible danger (and I think that's a longshot).

All of these players were smart to demand guaranteed money because it does give them a little more security. I know that was a factor for Hoyer when he re-signed with the Patriots.

Of course, unless injuries hit and give the Patriots an out to keep some other players, a lot of people will be asking why Belichick agreed to these guarantees. They were given out before the Patriots drafted their replacements — Stidham, Damien Harris, Winovich, Joejuan Williams — and the team needed to make sure they were covered during free agency, but it's definitely strange to see the Patriots give away leverage to four part-time contributors (McCourty could get there with J.C. Jackson's level of play) and tighten their available cap dollars even more.