NBA free agency in 2019 has essentially come to a close and there were seismic changes across the association when it comes to rosters. Amazingly, the Celtics still rank in the top half of the league when it comes to returning minutes to the roster (53 percent) despite losing five key pieces of their rotation in free agency.
While a big part of the C’s offseason was centered around landing an All-Star to replace Kyrie Irving in Kemba Walker, the team clearly maximized long-term flexibility moving forward with the majority of their other moves. To get a better sense of what the C’s long-term vision looks like, let’s breakdown how Danny Ainge has set up this group heading into next summer and look at what options will be available based on this upcoming season.
Under contract for 2020-21
Kemba Walker ($34.3 million)
Gordon Hayward ($34.1 million - player option)
Jaylen Brown ($26.75 million - estimate)
Marcus Smart ($13.4 million)
Jayson Tatum ($9.8 million once team option is picked up in October)
Daniel Theis ($5 million - team option)
Enes Kanter ($5 million - player option)
Romeo Langford ($3.6 million)
Vincent Poirier ($2.6 million)
Grant Williams ($2.5 million)
Robert Williams ($2.0 million once team option is picked up in October)
Semi Ojeleye ($1.8 million non-guaranteed)
Carsen Edwards ($1.5 million)
Guaranteed money committed if Hayward opts out: $99.55 million to ten players
Guaranteed money committed if Hayward opts in: $133.65 million to 11 players
Guaranteed money committed if Hayward and Kanter opts in: $138.65 million to 12 players
Projected salary cap for 2020-21: $116 million
Projected luxury tax for 2020-21: $141 million
OVERVIEW
With the Celtics electing to use three selections in the top-33 of the 2019 NBA Draft, they have set themselves up to have many team-friendly contracts. Jayson Tatum and Robert Williams both have team options that must be picked up by October 31st for 2020-21, and it’s a certainty that the team exercises both options. Elsewhere, Walker will be in the second year of a max deal, but everyone else will be on bargain pacts with the C’s, outside of Hayward (assuming he opts in). Seven players under guaranteed contracts will still be on their original rookie contracts. This won’t help a lot when it comes to salary matching in trades, but it will give the C’s plenty of flexibility to take on more salary without overwhelming the payroll into the luxury tax. The Celtics would obviously prefer to be balancing several star contracts, but their books are set up well now to avoid repeater tax issues for the foreseeable future. If a couple of these players on rookie deals have strong seasons, they will quickly turn into high-value deals as well.
Player options
Enes Kanter ($5 million)
Gordon Hayward ($34.1 million)
Analysis: Barring injury, Kanter is almost a lock to opt-out of this contract. Like Aron Baynes in 2016, he took a discount to come to Boston and will be looking for more security and a higher salary next summer, whether it’s here or elsewhere.
The Celtics will be better positioned to give him that security if they want to, with full access to the mid-level exception ($9.9 million), assuming they operate as an over-the-cap team next offseason. Kanter could be offered up to a four-year deal with that exception with eight percent annual raises. Otherwise, the C’s can offer him 125 percent of his previous salary ($5.95 million) if they do not want to use the mid-level exception to bring him back. Just how well Kanter fits into Brad Stevens’ system will tell the tale on what kind of market the 26-year-old center can command.
The more fascinating situation to watch will be with Hayward. For now, the odds are highly in favor of him picking up his hefty $34 million player option, but that could change if he bounces back with a strong season and wants to lock down some long-term security in Boston or elsewhere. The Celtics have no real motivation to reduce his $34 million cap hit for next season since they aren’t projected to be in the tax anyway and since they probably won’t have cap room if they want to bring back Jaylen Brown as well. Perhaps they will be open to bringing Hayward back on a long-term discounted deal if Hayward proves he’s closer to his Utah self in 2019-20. For now, the odds remain highly in favor of Hayward being back at a hefty price tag.
Team option
Daniel Theis ($5 million)
Analysis: This is a nice placeholder deal for the Celtics, who will have plenty of flexibility with the 6-foot-8 German. If Theis has a strong year and asserts himself as a main center in the rotation, the C’s will happily just pick this option up. However, the team now holds Bird Rights on Theis (since this will be his third straight season with the Celtics) so they have the ability to decline this option and still maintain his rights. This will come in handy if they want to sign him for less next summer since it’s possible that $5 million will be an overpay based on the crowded center market.
The other area to watch with Theis will be as a trade chip next offseason thanks to his non-guaranteed contract. When it comes to matching salaries, the Celtics may need the five million dollars from Theis to make a bigger deal work.
Either way, they will have a lot of flexibility with his situation. How he plays this year will dictate when his future is in Boston or elsewhere.
Free agents
Jaylen Brown ($19.6 million cap hold as restricted free agent)
Brad Wanamaker
Analysis: Brown’s future with the team will be the main storyline to watch all season long. The 22-year-old is going to be one of the top restricted free agents on the market next summer, and the Celtics will have until opening night to discuss an extension with him.
While the Celtics were willing to let a restricted free agent (Terry Rozier) walk away with a minimal return (second-round pick) this offseason, don’t expect the same to happen with Brown. The team isn’t forecasted to have serious cap room unless Hayward opts out, and that’s highly unlikely at this point without a longer extension in place.
Brown’s cap hold (nearly $20 million) will also limit the amount of C’s open cap room if they want to retain his restricted free agent rights, so the most likely path for Boston his offseason will be re-signing him on a long-term deal or using him as part of a sign-and-trade for a bigger name player. Building with Brown will be the preferred option if he continues to build on his potential, but just how big of a believer the franchise is in his future will become clear in the next 12 months.
Notable 2020 Free Agents around the league
Barring a major trade or Gordon Hayward asking out, the Celtics will not have significant salary cap room in the summer of 2020. They will have the mid-level exception ($9.9 million) and the bi-annual exception ($3.4 million) at their disposal to target mid-tier players, and this free agent class will be full of them with few unrestricted top free agents available. Here’s a breakdown of some of the more notable names available next summer:
2020 Unrestricted Free Agents
C/PFs
Anthony Davis
Draymond Green
Montreal Harrell
Andre Drummond (PO)
Paul Millsap
Derrick Favors
Hassan Whiteside
Marc Gasol
Tristan Thompson
Marcus Morris
Aron Baynes
Jerami Grant (PO)
JaMychal Green (PO)
Kanter (PO)
Robin Lopez (PO)
DeMarcus Cousins
Wings
DeMar DeRozan (PO)
Gordon Hayward (PO)
Eric Gordon
Otto Porter (PO)
Danilo Gallinari
Jae Crowder
Evan Fournier (PO)
Nicolas Batum
Kent Bazemore
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Joe Harris
Mo Harkless
PGs
Kyle Lowry
Goran Dragic
Fred VanVleet
Jeff Teague
Reggie Jackson
DJ Augustin
Jordan Clarkson
Notable Restricted Free Agents
Caris LaVert
Domantas Sabonis
Buddy Hield
Jaylen Brown
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Pascal Siakam
Brandon Ingram
Taurean Prince
Dario Saric
Cedi Osman
Malik Beasley
Other NBA News and Notes
- Nice to see Tim Duncan back in the league as an assistant coach with the Spurs. For a guy that has made hundreds of millions in his career, it’s fascinating to see him just take a year or two away before getting back into the NBA grind. It should be a nice boost for a Spurs offseason that didn’t have them adding anything of note while the rest of the West improved around them.
- Pau Gasol joined the Blazers on a minimum deal early this week. The 39-year-old is coming to the end of a Hall of Fame career, but this adds another piece of what looks to be a relatively underwhelming offseason for Portland compared to the rest of the West. They brought in veteran’s minimum signings in Anthony Tolliver and Mario Hezonja to replace Mo Harkless, Al-Farouq Aminu and Meyers Leonard. Gasol and Hassan Whiteside are defensive liabilities on the perimeter as well, so there is going to be a lot of pressure on Zach Collins to step up in the interior.
- Good signing of Trey Burke at the veteran’s minimum for the Sixers this week. Philadelphia definitely needed some scoring punch off the bench and the former lottery pick has the skillset to provide it. Wouldn’t surprise me if he plays the majority of the backup guard minutes over Raul Neto.
- A tough fall for former No. 4 overall pick Dragan Bender. He had to settle for a partially guaranteed deal with the Bucks just three years after being drafted. It’s going to be tough for him to earn any minutes there with their depth in the frontcourt as well.
- A list of pullouts from Team USA in the FIBA World Cup: Damian Lillard, DeMar DeRozan, Anthony Davis, James Harden, Bradley Beal, CJ McCollum, Eric Gordon, Paul Millsap, Kevin Love. Kemba Walker might be the best remaining player on the training camp roster.