The Red Sox fired their first shot in the trade market Saturday.
Will it be their last?
Could Saturday's trade be it? Or was it just the start?
I asked Dave Dombrowski if, following the acquisition of Andrew Cashner, the Red Sox might now stand pat between now and the July 31 deadline?
"We might,'' noted Dombrowski.
That could be the truth, or it could be a ploy. If Dombrowski and the rest of the Red Sox front office believe that Cashner will help stabilize the rotation and put less of a burden on the bullpen and the shift of Nathan Eovaldi to a relief role further enhances the bullpen, it's possible that this is it.
Then again, if Dombrowski is truly intent on getting more bullpen help, saying so publicly would only heighten his sense of desperation. Advertising his need does him no good.
It may well be that Dombrowski believes that Eovaldi, Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree and Ryan Brasier -- with some Steven Wright and Josh Taylor mixed in -- is good enough.
But given the unpredictable nature of bullpen performance, it might behoove him to acquire at least one other arm.
Clearly, the Red Sox are being careful in how much salary they take on -- they got the Orioles to assume more than half of Cashner's salary as well as a commitment to assume most of his performance bonuses. They're also wary about further thinning their player development system, which is only now being re-stocked.
There's good news for the Sox here, however. One major league talent evaluator noted recently that the return for rentals -- that is, players on expiring contracts -- continues to plummet.
That was born out by the fact that the Red Sox were able to get a pretty decent veteran starter in Cashner while only giving up two 17-year-old prospects while also off-loading more than half his salary on the Orioles.
Does that sound like much leverage for teams auctioning off players on expiring deals?
"I think teams are finding out that you're not going to get a whole lot for a rental,'' said the source. "And I think the closer we get to the deadline, the price is going to drop some more.''
There are some interesting veteran relievers on expiring deals, led by Detroit's Shane Greene and San Francisco's Will Smith.
Prior to the start of the season, at least one annual ranking had their system pegged dead last among the 30 MLB teams. That may be overly harsh, but the larger point is unavoidable: the Sox don't have a lot with which to maneuver.
So, a balance must be struck. What do the Red Sox have to offer to land the help they need without decimating their future?
"Their system isn't very deep, I'll tell you that,'' warns one scout who has seen the Boston system extensively. "And from what I can tell, other than a handful of guys, their best talent now is probably at Fort Myers (of the Gulf Coast League) and Lowell (in the New York Penn League). Now, maybe they can get a deal done with some of those guys, because they're a long way away and Dave isn't worried about what's going to happen in three or four years.''
In truth, there's likely to be more demand for late-inning relief than there was for a back-end starter like Cashner. After all, nearly every contender believes it could benefit from one more late-inning weapon.
That demand could increase the price at least somewhat.
We know that the Sox aren't about to sacrifice from the top tier of their prospects. So, no Bobby Dalbec, no Jay Groome, no Tristan Casas, no Darwinzon Hernandez, no Bryan Mata.
So, who?
Perhaps someone like C.J. Chatham. With shortstop spoken for through (at least) 2025 thanks to the contract extension signed by Xander Bogaerts, Chatham could be an expendable piece. The Sox recently moved him to second base, which may have been done to showcase his versatility to interested teams. A bigger-than-average middle infielder, Chatham has solid defensive instincts, athleticism and a plus-arm. The question is, how much will he hit? That a history of injuries could limit his value, but most scouts agree that Chatham will play at the major league level.
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