Could Celtics have done more to retain Al Horford?

LAS VEGAS -- The complexion of the NBA changed in a blink of an eye this past weekend when Kawhi Leonard elected to head to the West Coast.

The void he leaves behind in the Eastern Conference is a massive one. The Raptors will fall back in the pack with his departure, adding to a long list of teams that losing some firepower. The Bucks are still the heavy favorites with Leonard gone, but they lost a key weapon in Malcolm Brogdon in the backcourt. The Pacers added Brogdon and Jeremy Lamb but lost their starting frontcourt of Bojan Bogdanovic and Thaddeus Young. The absence of Victor Oladipo for most of the year should keep them in the middle of the pack. The Raptors will be replacing Leonard with the likes of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Stanley Johnson. The Nets will have Kyrie Irving aboard to replace D’Angelo Russell but will bring back essentially the same roster otherwise with DeAndre Jordan added to the mix and an injured Kevin Durant. 

Even with Kyrie Irving, Al Horford, Marcus Morris and Terry Rozier leaving with no compensation for them beyond a second-round pick (for Rozier), the Celtics still stand as the third co-favorite in the East along with the Pacers, Raptors and Nets, according to Vegas odds.

That’s not a bad outcome for Boston after seeing their two best players walk in free agency, but it’s still fair to wonder what could have been for this Celtics team if they had managed to retain their second-best player in Horford this offseason.

Part of losing Horford was probably beyond Boston’s control initially due to timing and likely tampering. Once Horford declined his $30 million player option on June 18 with Boston, it appeared his agent found a landing spot quickly, as he reportedly informed the Celtics he would be moving on from negotiations later the same day. We don’t know if he committed specifically to the Sixers back then (they had a lot of moving parts in free agency with Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris), but Horford's camp clearly knew on June 18 that he was going to get more than what the Celtics were (at the time) willing to offer in negotiations. At that point, the appeal of playing for Boston (with Kyrie Irving likely out the door) probably lacked much for Horford as well.

Horford's projected contract with the Sixers

2019-20: $25.3 million
2020-21: $26.8 million
2021-22: $27.9 million
2022-23: $29.1 million ($12 million guaranteed)

A relatively quiet draft night did little to change things. The Celtics' future looked uncertain even as Danny Ainge remained defiant about players wanting to come to Boston. Perhaps, Ainge knew his team would be going after Kemba Walker, but whispers of the C’s interest in Walker did not emerge until the following week. The team essentially gained a commitment from the All-Star before free agency even began on June 30. At that point, the Celtics started to look like an appealing contender again in the East and may have held more appeal to Horford.

So let’s revisit the scenario that emerged on the night of June 30. The Celtics could have easily topped the Sixers’ offer for Horford from a money standpoint if they managed to pull off a three-team sign-and-trade with the Nets and Hornets. In order to do that, they would have needed to compensate the Nets with a first-round pick (at least) to get them to facilitate a deal. From there, Boston could have stayed over the cap to pay Horford his asking price and still acquired Walker (in exchange for Rozier and Irving), while maintaining Bird Rights on their remaining free agents and keeping a full mid-level exception.

Would a team with Horford, Walker and the rest of the current Celtics roster (minus Enes Kanter) been a favorite in the East? Probably not, but they would have been a clear No. 2 over a Sixers squad with the ability to take down a weakened Bucks core.

In a year where the East is a free-for-all, overpaying on a deal for a good player would have made a trip to the NBA Finals more than a pipe dream before another potential roadblock (Kevin Durant) emerges in Brooklyn in 2020. Instead, the Celtics will now be dependent on a frontcourt featuring a defensive liability (Kanter), a productive backup (Daniel Theis), and some promise/inexperience (Grant Williams, Robert Williams, Vincent Poirier).

The layers of the situation make it tough to cast a lot blame here until we hear from the parties involved. Did Horford want out of Boston no matter what? When did he sour on negotiations with Boston? Were the costs of a sign-and-trade with Brooklyn prohibitive for the Celtics (draft picks)when they factored in the Horford overpay? How close was Boston's offer to Philadelphia’s?

We should find out some of these answers in the coming days, but for now, all we are left to go on is Ainge stating that bringing back Horford was a priority for the C’s this offseason back in early June.

The case for picking Kemba Walker instead of paying Horford and the C’s other retainable free agents (Morris, Rozier) is a choice that makes sense. Walker is younger, was an All-Star last year and is a better bet for Horford to be more productive over the next four seasons.

Still, the fact remains that there is a world in which the Celtics could have had Walker and Horford. It would have cost Boston some assets and long-term flexibility with their cap, but in a league with so much dramatic change on a yearly basis, the Celtics declined to pay the high price to maximize their window now (assuming Horford was open to a return).

One year after letting their division rival (Toronto) land an All-Star that led them to an NBA title (the Celtics could have topped the offer for Kawhi), the Celtics let their best big man walk to their direct rival without compensation. That choice should be under the microscope in a wide-open Eastern Conference.

Betting against Horford holding up into his 30s may end up being the right call four years from now, but there is no question that keeping the 33-year-old would have been the more direct path toward contention this season.

The only thing this team can count on right now to get back toward contention is the development of Tatum and Brown, along with the improvement of Hayward after a full year of recovery. Horford’s next contract would not have been a roadblock to that happening.

The Celtics certainly have more flexibility now for the future with their cap situation, but the pressure is on them to make the most of it without Horford in the fold. We will find out in the coming days how much of a chance they had to retain him, but the next steps are pivotal.