Unlike a lot of other teams — and this is part of the reason why they're the Patriots and everyone else isn't — the Patriots do not hand their draft picks starting positions or main roles before they even set foot on a field or prove themselves. Often, that's a path to failure for many rookies. The Patriots, instead, put their rookies on the road to success by giving them smaller, defined roles to start and then, perhaps, that can be expanded once they master the basics.
Michael Lombardi, who has longtime ties to Bill Belichick and was recently a personnel executive with the team, touched on this in his podcast, The GM Shuffle, a few months ago as he related the story about how 49ers draft pick (and future Hall of Famer) Charles Haley was taught only the defense for passing situations as a designated pass rusher as a rookie.
"Once you draft these guys, you have to have a plan for these guys because if you give them the Manhattan phone directory and say, 'Learn this,' he ain't learning it — you might as well put him off for next year. So you have to define the role for the player as soon as you draft a player. What New England will do is say (Chase) Winovich, he'll come in and here's his role. He's going to play, this, this, X, Y and Z. That's all. Once he gets that, then maybe we'll teach him a little bit more. We'll start to grow him, allow him to grow more. ... You have to develop the player. That allows him to have an impact on your team moving forward."
The Patriots' approach has been confirmed by multiple team sources and, frankly, it's fairly obvious if you've been paying attention. Patriots draft picks, even if they're taken in the first round, are not relied upon to start a season unless it's complete desperation at their position. This is very much by design. "Good teams can take players in Round 1 and develop them. The bad teams have to rely on them," said a team source.
With that in mind, we'll be projecting the initial role for the Patriots rookies (and second-year players who didn't or barely played as rookies last year), discuss best-case and worst-case scenarios for their role by the end of the season and offer a comparison to past draft picks. But first we'll start with the depth chart at their respective position, and how they fit to start.
First up: N'Keal Harry, the team's first-round pick out of Arizona State at wide receiver.
____________________
Player: N'Keal Harry
Position: WR
Patriots scheme position: Boundary WR
Ht/wgt: 6-2, 228
Speed: 4.53
Positional depth chart
[table id=289 /]
Position thoughts: Obviously there are two huge x-factors at this position with Josh Gordon and Demaryius Thomas. Namely, if/when Gordon is reinstated and Thomas is cleared to play (and if the latter is even effective). For this exercise, let's go with Gordon getting reinstated by Week 1, and Thomas staying on the PUP list into the season. ... Gordon, if he's back on the ball, earned a starting role with his production last season. Obviously Julian Edelman will be on the field almost every snap. So that leaves the third and fourth receiver role, and that's where we pick up with Harry. Patriots know the receiver position is fluid because they have three players — Phillip Dorsett, Maurice Harris and Dontrelle Inman — who have NFL experience and should be a little more game-ready than Harry.
Draft pick comparison: Malcolm Mitchell, 2016 fourth-rounder.
At the time, the Patriots didn't have anything on the outside. Edelman, Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan were the main players at the position. It was so bad on the boundary that Matthew Slater played as the lone WR on a play during the season-opening drive in Arizona. The Patriots also jettisoned 2013 second-round pick Aaron Dobson and largely went with four receivers (and Slater) for the balance of the '16 season.
Mitchell was given the role as X boundary receiver and third receiver to start the season. It wasn't until Week 11 that he began to get meaningful snaps in the slot as well.
Mitchell ended up with 48 targets in the regular season, 32 catches, 401 yards (12.5 avg.) and four touchdowns. Of course, he was outstanding in the Super Bowl with six catches for 70 yards.
Harry's development plan: Initially, he'll be on the Mitchell plan, which is the starter set in the complex Patriots offense. That will largely include learning the outside receiver role in the Patriots' various 2- and 3-man route combinations. He won't be asked to go in motion very much at all, unless it's for a designed run or playfake off a jet sweep.
From there, they will allow him to learn a few alignments or routes on the inside of the formation, which is the #2 or #3 receiver in the Patriots' playbook.
As always, the Patriots are not counting on Harry, but he has by far the biggest upside of anyone in this group. Are they hoping he acclimates quickly to the playbook and quickly grows from his initial role? Sure, but the Patriots would be just fine starting with an initial 3WR grouping of Gordon, Edelman and some combination of Dorsett/Harris/Inman/Berrios with Harry as the fourth WR.
The timeline could be accelerated a little bit depending on Gordon's situation or if some of the other receivers are underwhelming, but only if Harry is solid on the first couple steps into this offense.
Best-case scenario: Harry comes in, gobbles up the playbook to the point that he's playing fast on the field and not thinking through every route — this is the entire key for a young player in this offense — and instead of Week 11 representing his jump in the offense like Mitchell, it happens in Week 4 or 5. That would give him a chance to be targeted around 70 times with nearly 600 yards and half dozen touchdowns. That would be an excellent rookie season, and near a record for a Patriots rookie. Dobson has the Brady-era rookie record with 70 targets in 2013. Deion Branch has the rookie record with 43 receptions.
Worst-case scenario: If healthy, Harry is going to get on the field at least as the 4th receiver. So that's not an issue. But if Brady can't trust him, it's not going to go well. That being said, even Dobson got 72 targets (only 37 catches) and he was cut after his third season. Patriots were even desperate then. For Harry, 35 catches would be a disappointing season but a solid starting point for a productive career.