McAdam: How the Red Sox have boxed themselves into a corner as trade deadline looms

Forget -- for a moment at least -- the possibility that it may not make any sense at all for the Red Sox to attempt to improve themselves at the July 31 deadline.

Let's assume, for the purpose of this exercise, that the Sox finish their current road trip well and play well coming out of the All-Star break, putting themselves in good position to nab one of the two wild-card spots -- if not the AL East title.

The team's needs are obvious: pitching, pitching and then more pitching.

They could use a depth starter, now that Brian Johnson is sidelined with a non-baseball medical issue for the foreseeable future. They do, unquestionably, need at least one experienced late-inning reliever, and likely two.

As is typical for teams looking to make upgrades at the deadline, there are typically two ways to improve: payroll flexibility and a deep farm system. Non-contending teams looking to move established players want one or both. In a perfect world, they'd like to fleece you of your best young (cheap) talent and unload salary.

In a perfect world, they'd like to accomplish both at the same time. But they need at least one of the two.

And here's where things get dicey for the Red Sox.



We already know that the Red Sox are thin when it comes to their inventory of prospects. MLB.com ranked their minor league system dead last among the 30 MLB teams this past spring, and while some might consider that an overly harsh assessment, most evaluators certainly have the Sox in the bottom third in the game.

A number of deals in the last few years have served to deplete the system. Gone are, among others: Michael Kopech, Yoan Moncada, Jalen Beeks, Manuel Margot, Luke Allen, Ty Buttrey and others.

(It's worth remembering that the loss of those prospects produced the likes of Chris Sale, Craig Kimbrel, Ian Kinsler, and Nathan Eovaldi who, in turn, helped the Sox win a World Series last year. So while the losses may be painful in the present, they produced a title in the recent past).

There remain prospects who have significant value in the organization, including Bobby Dalbec, Tristan Casas, Darwinzon Hernandez, Jarren Duran and Tanner Houck. But to include them in deals would erase any progress the organization has made over the last two or three years in replenishing the prospect base and leave the organization ill-equipped to replace a number of big-name free agents over the next two seasons, including Rick Porcello, Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland, and potentially, J.D. Martinez.

The prospect depth was known to be limited. But over the weekend, another hurdle appeared.

Principal owner John Henry, speaking to WEEI.com, said he didn't anticipate the club spending a lot of money to improve, noting that the Sox already, for the second straight year, have the game's highest payroll.

The Sox reportedly sit just about $240 million in payroll presently, just under the third and final luxury tax threshold of $246 million. The team went over that threshold a year ago, costing itself 10 spots in last month's amateur draft, a smaller assigned pool of money for signing draft picks and a financial penalty of nearly $12 million.

Were the Sox to go over the third and final luxury tax again this year, the penalties would increase across the board.

But as Henry told WEEI.com, that's not the main impediment.

"It's not a luxury tax issue,'' he said. "It's a question of how much money do we want to lose. We're already over budget and we were substantially over our budget last year and this year. We're not going to be looking to add a lot of payroll."

This is a theme that Henry sounded last October, after the Sox beat the Dodgers in the World Series, when he publicly thanked the team's partners and minority owners for foregoing a profit in exchange for the record-setting payroll.

It sounds as if either the partner and minority owners have made clear that they don't want to that a second time. Or maybe Henry, in his position as majority owner, doesn't feel comfortable doing so.

Either way, it limits what Dave Dombrowski can do later this month.

He didn't have a lot to offer -- or least, not a lot which he would be willing to offer. But based on Henry's recent remarks, he won't be in position to take on a lot of salary, either.

That closes some doors. It prohibits a big deal, or acquiring someone who has a contract that runs beyond 2019. And it also wipes out the chance that the Sox could take on an outsized salary of an underperforming veteran in a deal in order to facilitate a trade for the team's real intended target.

(As an example, look at the blockbuster the Mets made last winter: wanting to land reliever Edwin Diaz, they agreed to also take on the final four years of Robinson Cano's contract).

Together, these two roadblocks would seem to give Dombrowski very little wiggle room this month.

And that's, of course, is he determines the Red Sox are worthy of an upgrade in the first place.