Examining the Celtics' options with the Terry Rozier sign-and-trade for Kemba Walker

The Celtics had a fairly quiet start to free agency after coming to terms with Kemba Walker on Sunday night. One additional agreement they did make was helping out former guard Terry Rozier and committing to move him via sign-and-trade to the Charlotte Hornets at some point later this month once the free agent moratorium lifts. There has been a large amount of confusion over the structure of the deal (two-team or three-team?) as currently constituted so let's look at where things stand as of Monday morning and how things could shift in the coming days.

1. It's a straight-up deal for right now (Walker for Rozier): There were rumors about the Celtics extending the deal to a three-team transaction on Sunday night but that did not occur after Al Horford agreed to sign with the 76ers. A three-team trade with Kyrie Irving [and pick(s) being sent to Brooklyn] would have allowed for Boston to stay over the cap and potentially sign Horford with Bird Rights. Since he's leaving, the team isn't necessarily going to pursue that route.

The current deal as composed would involve the Celtics signing Rozier to a three-year, $58 million deal and sending him to the Hornets straight up for Walker. The Hornets need the Celtics to do sign-and-trade because the Hornets only have the mid-level exception ($9.7 million) to spend on free agents, far less than what Rozier wants. The Celtics have Bird Rights on Rozier for now so they can sign him to the bigger deal and send him out for Kemba Walker (who will also be sign-and-traded). The money does not match (Rozier makes half of what Walker will in his next deal), but the Celtics can absorb Walker into cap after they renounce their other free agents (Horford, Irving, Marcus Morris).

2. Does this two-team deal as constituted help the Celtics retain their other free agents or spend more money in free agency? Not really. They are doing it likely as a favor to Rozier and to keep the door open for a bigger transaction (i.e. including Horford or Irving as part of the deal) that would help the team with cap flexibility more. For now, the Celtics hold a little leverage over the Hornets so they are likely to net an asset but it will be nothing major. A second-round pick is the best bet according to one league source. The Celtics know they are in a good position (the Hornets need them to get Rozier) but the Hornets also know that the C's can't keep Rozier if they want to have enough cap space free for Kemba Walker's deal. A middle ground will be found to keep the C's happy and that is probably some minor draft compensation unless the deal is expanded.

3. Could the Celtics get a player from the Hornets as part of the deal? Technically, yes, but it's very unlikely without a subsequent move. Three Hornets (Wily Hernangomez, Devonte Graham, Dwayne Bacon) have small enough salaries (under $2 million) for the Celtics to absorb one and still have enough cap room for Walker. The Hornets would love to dump one of their bigger veteran salaries but the C's don't have enough open cap room to take that money and Walker's $32 million as part of the deal. The three players listed above are cheap rotation talent for Charlotte so I would imagine that the Hornets balk at including them unless the deal is expanded from Boston's side.

4. How could the deal be expanded in the coming days? With sign-and-trades occurring across the league at a high rate, the Celtics still have some incentive to try to get involved in a bigger deal by sign-and-trading Al Horford or Kyrie Irving to their new homes in Philadelphia and Brooklyn respectively. Doing so as part of a three-team deal that involves Boston acquiring Walker from Charlotte would allow the Celtics to stay above the salary cap for the entire transaction (Swapping Walker for Irving or Horford would provide the salary matching needed to make it work). We went over the advantages of this last week  (access to full mid-level exception, bi-annual exception, ability to maintain Bird Rights on Marcus Morris, trade exception for Aron Baynes after he's dealt) that will be helpful to round out the current roster.

The Celtics would likely need to give up (at least) a first-round pick to Brooklyn or Philadelphia in order to get them to agree to facilitate the sign-and-trade, per a league source, and it remains to be seen how willing the Celtics are to pay that price. If Danny Ainge can get the big(s) he wants for the room-level exception ($4.7 million) and veteran's minimum instead, he might decide to hold onto a future first-round pick and keep the sign-and-trade limited to two teams. Horford and Irving can be signed outright to cap room by Philadelphia and Brooklyn, so they have no reason to do the deal without incentive.