Why the Celtics may be able to land a solid center and still sign Kemba Walker

The rumblings around the Celtics targeting Kemba Walker are growing louder and louder in recent days, with one Dallas beat reporter putting Boston No. 1 as the team most likely to land the All-Star, according to his sources.

Bringing aboard Walker would be a huge boost to the Celtics’ backcourt, giving them a superb replacement for Kyrie Irving compared to other potential options. However, there is no question that committing max money to Walker leaves some serious holes in the frontcourt. Al Horford and Aron Baynes were the defensive anchors for this team and the only pieces remaining are inexperienced youth.

Despite this reality, league sources indicate to BostonSportsJournal.com that the Celtics are confident that they will be able to land a steady big (or two) after free agency opens up on July 1 if they do end up securing a commitment from Walker. A closer look at the free agent market indicates why prioritizing a scorer like Walker over a traditional big like Nikola Vucevic with the team’s significant cap room may end up being a wise bet.

Crowded rosters

It’s best to look at this from a big picture perspective when judging the center market and that begins by looking at teams across the association. Here’s a sampling of the center/power forward depth charts from across the league, many of which are very crowded. Others? They are going to need some help, much like Boston.

Atlanta: Len, Plumlee, Spellman, Fernando (No. 34 pick)
Brooklyn: Jarrett Allen 
Charlotte: Zeller, Biyombo, Hernangomez
Chicago: Carter Jr, Felicio, Gafford
Cleveland: Thompson, Zizic, Love, Henson, Nance Jr.
Dallas: Powell, Porzingis (RFA), Kleber (RFA)
Denver: Jokic, Millsap (TO), Plumlee, Hernangomez, Bol
Detroit: Drummond, Griffin, Maker
Golden State: Damian Jones, Alen Smailagic (No. 39 pick)
Houston: Capela, Tucker, Nene
Indiana: Turner, Sabonis, Bitadze
LA Clippers: Harrell, Kabengele (No. 27 pick)
LA Lakers: Davis, Wagner
Memphis: Jaren Jackson Jr.
Miami: Whiteside, Olynyk, Adebayo
Milwaukee: DJ Wilson, Ilyasova
Minnesota: Towns, Dieng
New Orleans: Hayes, Okafor, Wood
New York: Mitchell Robinson
Oklahoma City: Adams, Noel (PO)
Orlando: Mozgov, Bamba, Birch (RFA)
Philadelphia: Embiid, Bolden
Phoenix: Ayton, Baynes
Portland: Nurkic, Leonard, Collins
Sacramento: Giles, Bagley, Bjelica
San Antonio: Poeltl, Aldridge, Samanic
Toronto: Gasol, Siakam, Ibaka, Anunoby
Utah: Gobert, Favors
Washington: Mahinmi, Howard

Based on these setups, it’s fair to put together a list of teams that need bigs on the free agent market to help round out their rotation.

BKN, DAL, GSW, HOU (backup), LAC, LAL, MEM, MIL (tax MLE), NOP, NYK, PHI, SAC

If we look closer, we can hone in on a few teams that will be in search of a starter as free agency begins at the center position. An opportunity will be ripe in Boston at that spot and there will be few teams that can offer a chance at winning along with big minutes in the middle. Here are a few other candidates on that front.

Starting job available at center: DAL, GSW, LAC, LAL, NOP, SAC

Who has money to spend?

So now we have found that about 40 percent of the league will be looking to upgrade their bigs and roughly half of those will be looking for starters. Within that pool though, there is going to be limited money to spend. Let’s take a closer look at the candidates that need starters to find out what they will be looking for in terms of a fit.

Potential big spenders

Brooklyn: They can create up to $68 million in cap room and have no true bigs beyond Allen. However, if they land Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, all that cap space disappears. The guess here is they will be prioritizing two max guys, leaving just the room-level exception ($4.7 million) leftover along with the vet’s minimum. Should be an attractive destination though for veteran's minimum guys if they do land two big names.

Dallas: They will need a true big man next to Kristaps Porzingis but restricted free agent Maxi Kleber is expected to be retained. Between him and Dwight Powell, the Mavericks may simply play without a true big. They’ve been rumored to be in the mix for Al Horford but only have enough cap room to target one big name.

LA Clippers: They have a great energy guy in Montrezl Harrell but nothing next to him from a depth standpoint. Like Brooklyn, they may just be prioritizing max free agents instead of using a chunk of their rooms on a big. Like Dallas, a rumored suitor for Horford and they could sign him and a max guy if they wanted.

LA Lakers: A ton of holes to fill after James/Davis/Kuzma with just a little less than max cap room to do it with. It’s hard to see them investing a lot in a big to play next to Anthony Davis.

New Orleans: They drafted a young center (Jaxson Hayes) at No. 8 and have Jahlil Okafor coming back. They certainly could use an upgrade here and have up to $29 million in cap room to spend. I’d expect them to be actively targeting a young big that can grow with Williamson or a veteran mentor for cheap money at the position.

New York: They may have a ton of cap room and no one to spend it on if spurned by big-name free agents like Durant and Irving. Mitchell Robinson is in line to get some serious reps at center but they could overpay for a one year deal on a veteran if they want to roll over their cap room towards the future.

Sacramento: A pretty big hole at the center spot, even though they are deep at the power forward (Giles, Bagley, Bjelica). This feels like a potential sleeper landing spot for Horford if they overpay him, but I’d expect them to use a large chunk of their $30 million in cap room for a center.

Out of that grouping, the Kings and Mavericks seem like the only surefire candidates to spend big money on a big. And while there are just a few options worthy of close to max money, the number of mid-level targets is quite extensive at the five spot.

Best free-agent centers

$25-30 million per year
Nikola Vucevic
Al Horford

Second tier bigs (Mid-level money is probably the floor for these guys. Most will get more)
Brook Lopez
DeAndre Jordan
Jonas Valanciunas
DeWayne Dedmon
Kevon Looney
JaMychal Green

Restricted free agent targets (Going to take an overpay to land them since their teams have matching rights)
Thomas Bryant
Ivica Zubac
Maxi Kleber
Jordan Bell
Khem Birch

Available for room-level exception?

Enes Kanter
Robin Lopez
Trey Lyles
Willie Cauley-Stein
Nerlens Noel

Veteran’s minimum?

JaVale McGee
Joakim Noah
Noah Vonleh
Kosta Koufos
Tyson Chandler
Taj Gibson

The Celtics’ pitch

Opportunity is going to be key here for Boston in their pitch. They can offer the opportunity to play big minutes at center in an uptempo offensive system, which may help a player land a big money contract in their next deal. There won’t be a lot of appealing long-term deals available for the likes of Kanter or Robin Lopez, but both guys would give the C’s a starting caliber center at a bargain basement price, similar to what Baynes was two years ago.

By dumping Baynes last week, the Celtics enabled themselves to open up the cap room necessary to sign a max guy like Walker outright. In the grand scheme of things, they would have loved to keep Baynes but they knew alternative options were awaiting. The prospect of opportunity and a crowded market should give the Celtics some appealing options to round out the roster, giving Brad Stevens a roster that may have a puncher’s chance in the East.