Why a Clint Capela trade is not realistic for the Celtics (for now)

The NBA world is hungry for new rumors at this time of year and the latest buzz in Celtics land during the past 24 hours surrounds Rockets center Clint Capela. Steve Kyler tweeted over the weekend that the Celtics are ‘seriously engaged’ in trade talks with the Rockets about the big man and have also had talks with Terry Rozier about a potential return.

It’s no surprise to see Capela’s name floated on the market after multiple reports last month indicated that everyone on the Rockets short of James Harden was available for the right price. However, a look at the situation from the Celtics’ perspective makes it close to impossible that any serious trade talks are going on right now involving Capela. Let’s take a closer look at why.

NBA Trade Rules

It’s easy to throw out names and connect them to teams, but it’s far harder to find a trade that actually makes sense for both sides. While there’s little doubt that the Celtics should have an interest in a player like Capela (strong rebounder and rim protector), his salary ($15.2 million for 2018-19) creates an issue. Salary matching is a requirement for any trade with two teams over the cap and it’s even stricter for when one team (the Celtics) are in the luxury tax, which is the case until July 1st.

Essentially, the Celtics have to send out over $12 million to make the deal work under CBA rules before July 1 or slightly less ($11.5 million) after July 1st. Given those restrictions, here’s what the Celtics have to work with at the moment from a salary matching standpoint:

Gordon Hayward: $32.7 million
Marcus Smart: $12.6 million
Jayson Tatum: $7.8 million
Jaylen Brown: $6.5 million
Guerschon Yabusele: $3.1 million
Robert Williams: $1.9 million
Semi Ojeleye: $1.3 million

Making any type of trade for Capela would involve moving Hayward (Rockets say no), Tatum (C’s say no), Brown (C’s say no) or Smart. While both Smart and Capela are valuable pieces, I’d argue that Smart is the more valuable all-around piece given his versatility on defense and his 3-point shooting gains over the past year. Some teams may prefer to have Capela over Smart but the Celtics are not one of them.

There are other hypothetical scenarios for a Capela deal, but all of them lots of uncertainty at this point of the offseason calendar. Al Horford is probably the most realistic choice among them. He’s got until June 30 to make a decision on his $30.1 million option. Danny Ainge already announced last week that the Celtics are prioritizing a long-term extension with the former All-Star. Even at age 33, retaining him is a priority for Boston no matter what happens with Kyrie Irving.

However, there is a possibility that Horford declares he wants out of Boston to go play with a team with a better chance of contending (if Irving walks). The Rockets may be one of those squads. In that scenario, Horford could be traded to Houston for Capela and another piece (Eric Gordon?) to make the money work but I’m not sure that deal makes a lot of sense from the Rockets' side of things given Horford’s hefty salary. They are cap strapped as is so committing that kind of dough to Horford would be limiting when giving up their best two trade pieces on affordable contracts.

A potential reworked contract (Horford gets more years for less money) is the more reasonable scenario from Houston’s perspective for Horford but those sides can’t legally talk details there (without the C’s permission) until July 1. At this point, the Celtics have far higher hopes for this offseason than moving on from Horford, who doesn’t sound like he’s made a decision yet on his future.

Any other Capela trade hypothetical would have to take place after July 1st as well. There are potential sign-and-trade options (Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier) that won’t work due to base year compensation limitations that would complicate salary matching. The Celtics could conceivably renounce all their free agents and have enough cap room to absorb Capela for a draft pick(s) but that’s a net negative for the franchise when it comes to competing.

The only other alternative in play here for salary matching would be if Aron Baynes opts in for $5.4 million and agrees to be dealt. Even then, the C’s would have to send several other players (Ojeleye, Yabusele, Williams) to make the money work for a trade and that's not enough value to convince the Rockets to give up a young elite center.

The bottom line here? No realistic trade involving Capela can happen until free agency hits unless it involves one of Boston’s young studs and the odds are strongly against Danny Ainge moving one of those guys for a center not named Anthony Davis.

The Celtics have undoubtedly discussed Capela in hypothetical scenarios but there are far too many other moving parts right now to consider for them before getting ‘serious’ about a Capela trade that couldn’t even happen for another month. There are things about the Rockets big man (age, reasonable salary, skillset) that make sense for him to be a target but there is no smoke here.

If and when Horford declares he wants out, this will be a situation to revisit. Otherwise, barring a trade exception opening up in conjunction with Kyrie Irving’s departure, this isn’t a possibility worth putting much stock into just yet.