What will Kyrie Irving's next contract look like?

While the speculation surrounding Kyrie Irving is already starting to bubble over despite the start of free agency lingering more than one month away, one of the biggest factors in any decision by the All-Star guard has been pushed to the side to this point: money.

Irving is all but certain to get a max deal in his next contract, whether that comes in Boston or a new destination, but a crucial factor that could very well play into where he lands is how much security he wants in his next destination. League sources insist to BostonSportsJournal.com that bringing Irving back remains a Plan A for the Celtics this summer but the level of commitment Irving is willing to give Boston (or another team) could be a major storyline in the weeks to come, especially when it comes to money.

The Basics: The NBA collective bargaining agreement is set up to give a player’s current team the inside track to keep him in free agency when it comes to dollars and cents. The Celtics will not only be able to offer Irving one more year (five) in his next contract than any other suitor (four) but a higher annual raise (eight percent) in each year of his deal compared to other teams (five percent).

Here’s a look at the max offer that the Celtics can offer Irving this summer

2019-20: $32.7 million
2020-21: $35.3 million
2021-22: $37.9 million
2022-23: $40.5 million
2023-24: $43.2 million

Total: $189.7 million over five years

Here’s a look at the max offer that another team can offer Irving

2019-20: $32.7 million
2020-21: $34.3 million
2021-22: $36 million
2022-23: $37.9 million

Total: $140.6 million over four years

When you cut out the fifth year, it’s not a huge financial gap (just over $6 million more from the Celtics) but that has been enough to tip the scale for some free agents in the past. Some free agents (Gordon Hayward) have ignored that difference while picking a new team though so I wouldn't expect it to factor into the decision for a star like Irving. The bigger problem here for Boston though is the fact that it may not be in Irving’s financial interest to sign a long-term contract this offseason with the Celtics or another franchise.

How max free agent contracts work in the NBA

Not all max contracts in the NBA are created equal. Like most things in life, earnings grow based on how much experience is accrued. When a player hits NBA free agency for the first time (6 years or less of experience), they are eligible for just 25 percent of the salary cap on a max deal. That number jumps up to 30 percent for players with 7-9 years experience and then finally the true max comes when a player hits 10-plus years of experience. At that point, a player’s starting salary can begin at 35 percent of the salary cap.

When Irving hits free agency this summer, he will have completed eight NBA seasons, which makes him eligible for just a 30 percent max (see: contract above). However, if Irving really wanted to maximize his earnings, he could demand a two-year contract this summer with a player option for a third year. That type of deal would allow him to opt out after two seasons (giving him 10 years of experience) and potentially command a 35 percent max deal for 2021. A five-year max contract in 2021 from Boston would look like this based on the latest salary cap projection for 2020-21 ($116 million).

Two-year contract at max

2019-20: $32.7 million
2020-21: $35.3 million 

Five-year max contract starting in 2021 at 35 percent

2021-22: $40.6 million
2022-23: $43.85 million
2023-24: $47.1 million
2024-25: $50.45 million
2025-26: $53.7 million

Total: $233.7 million

Is Irving good enough to take this type of gamble on a short-term deal?

LeBron James and Kevin Durant started the trend of taking short-term deals in the last decade that maximize their flexibility. However, Irving is on a different tier than those players. He’s got a far longer injury history than both of them (along with a weaker career resume after this past postseason). Locking up four or five guaranteed years at the max might be the best bet for Irving at age 27, rather than risk some sort of major injury that might cost him a massive deal in the future (a la DeMarcus Cousins). Paul George took an in-between path last summer by signing a three-year deal with a player option in Oklahoma City.

What would the Celtics do if Irving demands the one-plus-one or two-plus-one option?

It’s hard to see the Celtics failing to cater to Irving’s demands here although a one-year opt-out would open up the door for all the questions and speculation that swirled around the franchise for much of this past season to return again. It’s fair to wonder whether Irving himself would want to deal with those rumors but the Celtics would have to think long and hard about their long-term trajectory in this scenario as well. Bringing Irving back for one guaranteed year and dealing for Anthony Davis (just one year remaining on his current contract with no long-term promises) would be a huge roll of the dice for the franchise and place immense pressure on the coming season. Still, that could be a better option for the franchise than letting Irving walk away entirely with no compensation.

What kinds of concerns would there be to a five-year deal?

That’s not to say there is no risk for Boston to committing to Irving for five years as well, but there’s no question that it would be easier to get some long-term assurances from Davis after a potential trade if Irving was locked into place for the long-term. Other key core pieces (Al Horford) would likely remain eager to re-sign as well with contending talent under contract. The Celtics would have to build their roster more around Irving as well since it’s evident last year’s collection of talent did not mesh on a variety of levels on and off the floor but that’s a trade-off the front office will be happy to make if they knew Irving was committed for the long haul.

Potential problem: No clear financial advantage for Celtics if Irving wants to sign a short-term deal

It’s key to note here though that this is a path that Irving can pursue with any other suitor in free agency that gives him the one-plus-one contract this summer. Even without Bird Rights, Irving could re-sign with any team for 125 percent of his previous salary in 2021-22, which would equal the 35 percent max ($40.7 million).

The bottom line here is if Irving wants to maximize his earnings and follow the footsteps of James and Durant, he can do it just as well in New York as he can in Boston, eliminating one of the few potential edges the Celtics had in this free agency derby. If Irving wants long-term security right now, the Celtics are best positioned to give that to him. If Irving likes the appeal of flexibility and more money, it’s going to be a level playing field in July. Danny Ainge and Brad Stevens will have to sell Irving on the merits of winning