What would Celtics look like if they hit the reset button this offseason?

In the wake of what one of the most disappointing seasons in Celtics history, there has been a loud refrain from certain parts of the fanbase: Let Kyrie Irving walk. We’ve discussed the ramifications of such a move at length in recent months here at BSJ, but the questions keep surfacing about whether the C’s would have the ammo to do something splashy in the face of a complete reboot this offseason. In such a scenario, the Celtics would let Irving walk, pass on giving up the bulk of their assets for Anthony Davis and conceivably let Al Horford walk out the door as well (to open up cap room and since it would be tough to sell Horford on this group being a contender without Irving or Davis in the fold).

In such a scenario, could the Celtics have enough room to offer a contract to a max free agent this summer? In theory, yes. However, the steps they would have to go through to make that a reality would risk a serious step backward for the franchise in the face of years of building towards contending. Let’s walk through this scenario in greater depth to get a better idea of why the front office and ownership are still holding out hope that Irving wants to return and why a reset path presents more questions than answers. 

Guaranteed Salaries for 2019-20 season

Gordon Hayward: $32.7 million
Marcus Smart: $12.6 million
Jayson Tatum: $7.8 million
Jaylen Brown: $6.5 million
Aron Baynes: 5.45 million
Guerschon Yabusele: $3.1 million
Robert Williams: $1.9 million
Semi Ojeleye: $1.3 million
No. 14 pick: $3.45 million
No. 20 pick: $2.6 million
No. 22 pick: $2.38 million
No. 51 pick: (no cap hold)
Cap Hold 1: $897,000

Guaranteed money committed: $80.7 million to eight players, three draft slots and one mandatory cap hold (NBA requires a team have 12 cap holds on a roster even during an offseason. $897,000 is the minimum salary cap hold)

NBA Salary Cap Projection: $109 million

Luxury Tax Projection: $132 million

Even though it may appear that the Celtics have $28.3 million in cap room with this salary cap sheet, the front office would have to give up their ability to retain all of their current free agents with Bird Rights in order to gain access to that cap room. What exactly would that mean?

2. Renouncing the Bird Rights of Marcus Morris, which would prevent the team from re-signing him (unless they use their cap room).

3. Renouncing the Bird Rights of Al Horford, which would prevent the team from re-signing him (unless they use the cap room).

4. Renouncing the qualifying offer for Terry Rozier, which would make him an unrestricted free agent and prevent the Celtics from having any matching rights on him.

5. Renouncing the Bird Rights on Kyrie Irving after he declines his player option.

Only with all of those cap holds off the books would the Celtics have the ability to work with $34.2 million in cap room this offseason. However, the biggest problem with this scenario? This would be the roster that the Celtics have to work with as they try to sell free agents on signing in Boston.  

PG: Smart
SG: Brown
SF: Hayward
PF: Tatum
C: Baynes

Bench: Williams, Ojeleye, Yabusele, No. 14, No. 20, No. 22

Is that a playoff team in the Eastern Conference if the Celtics hit on a couple of their draft picks? Highly likely. However, there is no question that it is nowhere near being a title contender. For a player that prioritizes winning banners over anything else, it’s hard to envision any All-Star level free agent (Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker, Khris Middleton) coming here and believing that this group would be considered a favorite over the likes of the Bucks and Sixers in the Eastern Conference. If any max player signed, there would be minimal room left over to sign additional free agents (beyond for the veteran's minimum)

It’s one thing to create cap room and it’s another to look like an appealing team while also having the cap room to sign prospective free agents. While Tatum and Brown have promise, this young group has a huge hole in the frontcourt behind Baynes and Williams, understandable question marks about Hayward’s ability in the wake of his injury and together look like (at-best) a middle of the road playoff team with anything less than a superstar addition.

Realizing this, perhaps you want the Celtics to hit the reset button for one year anyway. Instead of overpaying a borderline max guy (Tobias Harris, Butler, Walker), the front office spreads the money around on short-term deals in hopes of the Celtics looking like a more appealing destination in 2020 to free agents (following better years for Brown/Tatum/Hayward). It's a path the Clippers and Lakers took this year with mixed success. 

That’s a reasonable stance to take but the math doesn’t work well on it from a team building perspective. Brown will be a restricted free agent next summer so even if the C’s keep some potential max free agent cap room free for 2020, they are going to have to make Brown a big offer ($20 million per year seems like a fair starting point) or let him walk away to maintain that cap space. In a similar vein to letting Horford and Irving walk this year, the only way the Celtics have significant cap space in 2020 is by letting Brown walk (or trading away Hayward and his $32.7 million per year salary with some assets to a team with cap room when his value is extremely low).



There’s also the matter of the 2020 free agent class. Outside of Davis, the next best players that are likely to be available in that class feature no true superstars. Instead, there are flawed pieces like DeMar DeRozan, Andre Drummond and Draymond Green that top the list of talent, none of which could be expected to take this core to the next level.

With just one other likely lottery pick (protected 2020 Memphis pick) to work with, hitting a full reset button and passing on this team’s free agents looks like the start of a long winding road towards mediocrity for this franchise. If Tatum and Brown both develop into All-Stars and reliable scoring options for this team, the C’s can stay at a 50 win team but there will be too many holes in other parts of the roster (i.e. the frontcourt) to be a true contender against the likes of the Bucks, Raptors (if Kawhi stays) and Sixers. The East is far better now than it was in 2018 when Brown and Tatum led the run towards the Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics are going to need more firepower to give themselves a chance to get back there. 

There are no perfect options for the Celtics front office this offseason but this path may top the list among the least realistic options. While the Celtics have no control over whether Irving walks, they are better off keeping some valuable contributors in place (Horford, Morris) than trying to chase a max free agent this summer while building around their youth.