Celtics 2019 offseason primer: What are the free agent possibilities, with and without Kyrie?

The biggest offseason for the Celtics in decades has arrived, far earlier than most people would have anticipated. After the Celtics arguably went through the worst case scenario for the 2018-19 season, huge questions now wait for the front office this summer as they attempt to define the direction of the franchise. After years of building patiently towards contention, the team’s only All-Star is at risk of walking away without compensation for the franchise, setting the stage for a July where eight players on the team will be free agents.

What do the team’s cap and draft situation look like? We will be going through the nitty gritty of countless scenarios in the coming weeks here at BSJ but to get you ready of the circumstances that Danny Ainge has to work with, let’s breakdown everything you need to know about the Celtics offseason.

Players under contract for 2019-20

Gordon Hayward: $32.7 million
Marcus Smart: $12.6 million
Jayson Tatum: $7.8 million
Jaylen Brown: $6.5 million
Guerschon Yabusele: $3.1 million
Robert Williams: $1.9 million
Semi Ojeleye: $1.3 million

Guaranteed money committed: $65.9 million to seven players
NBA Salary Cap Projection: $109 million
Luxury Tax Projection: $132 million

BSJ Analysis: Outside of Hayward, the Celtics have as good of a cap sheet as one could hope for. Tatum and Brown continue to be some of the best bargains in the NBA on their current deals, although the fact that Brown just has one year left on his rookie contract will limit his trade value to a degree. He’s eligible to sign an extension up until October 31st, something the Celtics have not done with a restricted free agent-to-be since 2009. Tatum has two years left on his deal before becoming a restricted free agent.   

Smart’s contract has turned from a potential overpay to a bargain based on his progression on the offensive end of the floor this year. The fact that the C’s locked him up for three more years makes him a significant trade chip or a good building block for this team in the backcourt for years to come. Yabusele is overpaid as a fringe NBA player but that option was picked last October more for salary matching trade purposes than anything else. I’d be very surprised to see him on the roster next year. Williams and Ojeleye remain on bargain basement deals, with Ojeleye potentially in line for a big opportunity off the bench next year if Marcus Morris isn’t retained.

Player options (Decision must be made by June 29th)

Al Horford: $30.1 million
Kyrie Irving: $21.3 million
Aron Baynes: $5.45 million

BSJ Analysis: We’ve done a full analysis of Irving’s situation here but it’s important to point out again the lack of appealing alternatives for the Celtics on the market. While there’s no doubt his dismal series against the Bucks left a mark and the odds of him returning have diminished understandably, I still expect the Celtics to try to convince him to sign with the team long-term amid some revamping to the rest of the roster. Whether or not Irving buys into that vision will be the question that looms over the offseason.

The frontcourt anchors of the Celtics defense both declared their love for Boston in the last 24 hours but there is still plenty of uncertainty over where they will land in July.

The crucial piece to the C’s puzzle is Horford. He’s talked at length exclusively with BSJ about his future in March and it is evident he wants to contend for a title. The Celtics looked like a perfect place for him to do that over the rest of his career but the uncertainty surrounding the future of Irving now throws a wrench in that plan.

He will have to make a decision about his $30 million before the start of free agency and if Irving’s future looks murky at that point, he may opt to test free agent waters. There aren’t a lot of teams that are contenders and could also offer him big money ($20-plus million per year) but if the possibility always exists that he takes a big paycut to play for a contender. The Celtics will be wise to not let him get to that possibility by offering him a big extension before free agency even begins, as well as a map back towards contention for them, whether or not Irving is back.

“It’s something that I haven’t even stopped to think about,” Horford said on Wednesday. “I’ve enjoyed being here in Boston. Just have to wait and see what we’re going to do as a team. And it’s steps that the management is going to do moving forward, and continue to get better.”

Baynes will have an easier choice with a $5.4 million dollar option. After an injury-prone season, it’s hard to envision him getting much more than that on the open market, so he may simply opt-in to guarantee that kind of payday. Otherwise, the Celtics could bump up his annual salary closer to $7.5 million with his early Bird Rights. Either way, it’s hard to see him walking away unless the Celtics do a massive overhaul at center that leaves him with no role. Even if Davis is brought in, it’s not a stretch to see Baynes being used for 15 minutes per night as a backup.

Restricted free agents

Terry Rozier (Bird Rights): The Celtics declined to trade him last summer in part due to Irving insurance and that bet looks somewhat smart right now given the uncertainty about Irving’s future. However, after a trying year in Boston, it’s unclear just how enthusiastic Rozier would be to re-sign in Boston.

“Definitely didn’t go the way we all want,” Rozier said Wednesday. “I thank God for my family and my boys back at the crib. They kept me level-headed all year, because I’ve been dealing with some bulls---. I felt like we still had that one goal, Coach (Brad Stevens) dealing with a lot of guys that want to be great, trying to get there. It’s been tough, it’s been a tough year, especially for me, but it’s not about me and that’s why I don’t complain.”

While the point guard would surely jump at the opportunity to stay if Irving skipped town, it’s tough to envision the team bringing him back into this situation otherwise, unless Smart was dealt in a separate trade. Rozier was a subpar guard for nearly the entire season and the team could opt to move in a different direction in the backcourt to a more pass-first guard.

Either way, Rozier certainly cost himself money after turning down a multi-year extension from the team that was worth well over $10 million per year back in the fall. Now, he’ll be lucky to get more than mid-level money on the restricted free agent market.

Daniel Theis (early Bird Rights): The Celtics don’t have full Bird Rights on him since they signed him to just a two-year deal, but they will be able to offer him up to the average NBA salary (roughly $9 million per year) per CBA rules. His market won’t be nearly as expensive as that, making him a welcome addition to come back due a lack of alternatives. Something a little more than the league minimum could do the trick after an injury-plagued year.

Unrestricted free agents

Marcus Morris (Bird Rights)
Brad Wanamaker (Non-Bird Rights)
Jonathan Gibson (Non-Bird Rights)

BSJ Analysis: Before the season, Morris appeared to be one of the few guys who seemed destined to have their time in green come to an end, but he battled as well as anyone on the roster this postseason after an awful second half of the year. At age 29, he will be looking at one more big deal to cash in with as he exits his prime but his 3-point range and versatility will be tough to replace for Boston. While they may be outbid for his services, I’d expect the Celtics to stay in the mix of teams trying to sign him in July, especially if Irving stays and a new star is brought in to team up with him. The importance of having the right supporting pieces around those guys will be crucial and Morris showed this year that he’s willing to play whatever role this team needs.

Wanamaker and Gibson will be playing elsewhere next year.

Future Draft picks for 2019

Clippers pick: (20): $2.1-million estimate for draft pick salary in 2019-20

Celtics own pick (22): $1.9-million estimate for draft pick salary in 2019-20

Memphis pick (1-8 protected in 2019, 1-6 protected in 2020, unprotected in 2021): N/A for 2019 salary (Pending result of lottery)

Sacramento pick (14-pending result of lottery): $2.8-million estimate for draft pick salary in 2019-20

Celtics own second-round pick (No. 51)

Will the Celtics have cap room if Irving leaves?

No. Even if the Celtics let their current free agents walk (Rozier, Morris, etc.) the still will not have significant room under the cap for a max deal. The only way they could open up some sizable salary cap space would be by letting Horford walk or dealing away Gordon Hayward without taking back salary (an unlikely scenario). Opening up cap room for a team without Horford or Hayward seems counterproductive unless the front office wants to really go young next year and target players that match the age timeline of Tatum and Brown. Even then, serious cap room would only be present if the team’s other free agents are allowed to walk as well.

What resources will the Celtics have to improve the roster?

The team will have the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.7 million) to add free agents if they go over the tax line ($132 million). If they are under the tax line, they will have the full mid-level exception ($9.2 million) Beyond that, the only other route to bring aboard new talent will be veteran’s minimum free agents and trades, unless the team does a complete overhaul (let all their free agents walk) in order to open up some cap room (highly unlikely).

What's next?

In the weeks to come, we will be getting in far more depth on each individual’s situation as well as the plausible scenarios that the front office will be cycling through this offseason. The fun begins on Tuesday night with the NBA Draft Lottery helping establish more clarity with the type of assets the Celtics will have as what will surely be an active trade season begins leading into the NBA Draft.