McAdam: It's not even the end of April, and already, the Red Sox face must-win series

Far sooner than they could have imagined, the 2019 Red Sox find themselves at a crossroads this weekend.

Having bumbled their way to a 6-13 start, their worst in 23 seasons, the Sox are already a yawning 8.5 games out of first place in the American League East.

They trail not the New York Yankees -- who swept them in their just-completed two-game series, lead them in the standings by three games and have managed to remain near the .500 mark despite a litany of injuries -- but to the Tampa Bay Rays, conveniently or not, their opponents for the next three game beginning Friday night.

Thanks to databases and sites like BaseballReference.com, it's easy to match the Red Sox start with similarly disappointing Aprils from teams in the modern era. Thus, we learn that the 2002 Anaheim Angels were 6-14, one game worse than the current Red Sox, but managed to rebound and win the World Series that October. The previous year, the 2001 Oakland A's executed a radical turnaround after a 6-13 beginning, eventually winning 102 games.

So there's precedent. Two other teams in the wild-card era dug themselves early-season holes and willed themselves to the postseason.

But it's not exactly commonplace. Worse, watching the Red Sox through the first three weeks of this season, it's a stretch to imagine them pivoting so sharply and hauling themselves back into contention.



For the first, say, two weeks of the season, the team's chief failing could at least be isolated and easily identified: It's the starting pitching, stupid.

Through the first four series of the year, the team was without a win from a member of its starting rotation while getting just one quality start -- six or more innings, three earned runs or fewer allowed. And there was reason to believe the five veteran starters would, in time, right themselves and fix what most obviously ailed the team -- a confounding habit of continually falling behind early in games, while placing an inordinate burden on the bullpen.

And indeed, the starters have, predictably, shown considerable improvement. In the last five games started by regular members of the rotation (discounting the spot start turned in by Hector Velazquez Monday -- the team has gotten impressive turns from Eduardo Rodriguez, David Price and, most recently, Nathan Eovaldi.

But in the meantime, other leaks have developed.

In the last four games, the team is a woeful 1-for-18 with runners in scoring position. And with essentially the exact same lineup as it had last year, the Red Sox' OPS has gone from an MLB-best of .792 to a decidedly middle-of-the-pack (17th out of 30) .675.

The team's best overall player, reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts, is off to a forgettable start -- mysteriously passive at the plate and, even stranger, inconsistent in the outfield, where he's graded out as the game's best defender in recent seasons.

As a whole, the team's defensive play has been, to be charitable, sloppy. Their 11 unearned runs allowed is a total eclipsed by just three teams.

The last week has demonstrated that their problems run far deeper than a faulty rotation, even one which was perceived as a team strength.

Soon, the math will start working against them, even though they've played just over 10 percent of the schedule. Consider: the Red Sox have played six series to date and haven't won any (0-4-2).

If that pattern extends through this weekend three-game set at Tropicana Field, the Red Sox can essentially kiss the AL East title goodbye and see their run of three straight first-place finishes come to an inglorious end.

Needlessly harsh? Think again.

Should the Sox lose two games to the streaking Rays, they would find themselves 10.5 games out of first. A sweep at the hands of the Rays would drop them 11.5 games out. That doesn't take into account that two other teams -- Toronto and Baltimore -- currently sit ahead of the Red Sox in standings, and while neither the Blue Jays nor Orioles pose much of a long-term threat or suggest that they're capable of contending this season, they do represent another obstacle over which the Sox must hurdle if they are to make a move at all.

It seems inconceivable that the Red Sox could be facing a must-win series against the Rays, who, for all their improvement, were not identified as the team's principal competition in the division. Moreover, it's even harder to believe that the Sox find themselves in such a predicament on Easter Weekend, with more than five full months remaining in the regular season.

Then again, very little about how the season has played out could have been predicted.

And yet, here they are.