Bedard: Should the Patriots make a trade for Cardinals QB Josh Rosen?

It's very likely sometime in the next two weeks, one of the rarest occurrences could be in play: a quarterback drafted in the top 10 of one draft would be traded after just one season.

As far as we can tell, it has never happened in the Super Bowl era. It last occurred in 1961 when George Izo, the second overall pick by the then-Chicago Cardinals in 1960, was dealt to the Redskins at the end of training camp in 1961.

Unless you've been hiding under a rock, you know Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray is very much in play for the Arizona Cardinals (hey ... what a coincidence) this year with the top overall pick. Of course, they just took Josh Rosen with the 10th overall pick a year ago — and they traded up to do so (15th overall, plus third- and fifth-round picks).

So unless the Cardinals pass on Murray or they entertain the thought of keeping both quarterbacks on the roster at least for a year and sort of do a modified Patrick Mahomes stash, Rosen will be on the trading block either on draft day or as soon as the pick is made.

Should the Patriots be interested? Obviously, with a starting quarterback in Tom Brady who will be 42 before the start of the regular season, there will be a transition at some point. Could Rosen be the heir apparent?

There's a lot to like about that possibility — from Rosen's talent to his contract — but there are still a lot of lingering questions about the UCLA product, even with one NFL season and 13 starts under his belt. After polling five NFL executives about Rosen's draft evaluations, his first NFL season, and where he would fit into this year's draft, there was a consensus: It would be just like the Patriots to make this deal. And it would not go over well across the league.

"A lot of people would say, '(Expletive), I can't believe they got a guy that good,'" said one AFC executive. "Yeah, there would be a lot of swear words. It  would be just like Belichick to make that deal."

Should the Patriots do it? Will they? Let's go through the various factors involved.

FINANCIAL

This part of a potential deal is so good that, if you were the Patriots, you'd basically just do it and not even care if it works out.

Rosen's contract with the Cardinals was $17,597,760, and fully guaranteed. At this point, between his signing bonus and base salary having already been paid by Arizona, there is $6,239,388 in cash left on the contract for the final three seasons. His cap numbers, as Miguel pointed out, would be $1,279,898 in 2019; $2,079,796 in '20 and $2,879,694 in '21. And the Patriots would still have the fifth-year option at their disposal in '22, and the franchise tag in '23.

For comparison's sake, Brian Hoyer has a cap number of $3 million this season, and he will have a total cash value of $4,815,000 if he finishes out his three-year deal this season.

Just the financials of it, if you only need to trade the 32nd overall pick or a second-rounder, it makes the deal almost a no-brainer — if you think the player has a chance.

TALENT

There is little doubt, just in terms of his mechanics and throwing ability, Rosen has the stuff to be a franchise quarterback. He has very good size (6-foot-4, 226 pounds, 10-inch hands) but he's not exactly well built, and there are durability concerns. His velocity at the combine was third behind Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield.

"The kid can throw it, there's no doubt about that," said an NFC executive. "Great mechanics, quick motion, tight spiral, good touch deep and long."

"Best passer I've evaluated since Drew Brees," said another.

The consensus among the five executives was if Rosen was in this draft, he would be right there with Murray as the top quarterback.

"It would be 1A or 1B, depending on what you're looking for with your scheme," said one. "A dropback team like the Patriots? Rosen would be better than any of the guys in this draft."

Another plus for the Patriots? Rosen was asked to do more than his fair share of play-action passing, especially for a rookie, and looked good doing it.



OK, now for the negatives. Rosen fumbled 10 times last season. There were a few games I watched and was like, "Has he fumbled every snap?" Some of that has to do with his, at times, lack of pocket feel. But I wouldn't say it's terrible or something he can't overcome (like I did with Ryan Tannehill several moons ago ... Tommy Point!)

There were also the issue of his 14 interceptions. Sort of a pretty good mix of tipped passes, late throws, balls that can't be thrown and bad routes by receivers. One common theme, however, was that a lot of defenders seemed to jump the Cardinals' routes. To me, that means — and some of the executives confirmed this — Arizona ran a very simplistic scheme that was easily read by defenses. Combine that with the lack of talent, and you have some issues for a dropback passer who can't create plays like Murray can.



INTANGIBLES

When it comes to the quarterback position, this is the whole kit and caboodle and nobody knows for sure. Often times, it just comes down to a feel that a scout, position coach, or head coach has after gathering all their research.

There are a lot of people who don't like Rosen, or at least the type of leader he may be on a football team.

"He looks the part when he throws the ball but lacks the rest of the assets you need to be a winning quarterback up here,” one scout told BobMcGinnFootball.com. “Off the field, he doesn’t have the profile you want for someone leading your team."

There were a lot of concerns from scouts in the pre-draft process about some of his leadership issues, including tales of him going out with teammates to dinner but not sticking around. In the end, most scouts chalked it up to youth, and Rosen improved in that area with age.

Rosen is extremely bright, and has shown a lack of patience with coaches that he doesn't deem to be as smart as him. He's one of those who will question everything. There's a lot of Aaron Rodgers in Rosen in this regard — three of the executives made this observation. It wasn't a problem early in Rodgers' career, but it got progressively worse, if you believe the Bleacher Report story.

"Rosen is socially awkward," said one executive. "He's not really a guy's guy, or the type that enjoys just hanging out in the locker room. He has other interests and passions. That's a concern. But Rodgers was the same way, and that worked out fine, for the most part."

The similarities between Rodgers and Rosen in approach and personality are almost uncanny. Watch the interactions between them in this video. In fact, the entire scouting department of one team watched this video during the pre-draft process — and the reviews weren't great.



WILL THE PATRIOTS MAKE A DEAL?

The last part, Rosen's personality and demeanor, could very well be the one thing that would hold Belichick back from trading for Rosen. Belichick, according to those who know him, likes having an alpha male as the leader of his football team, a Pied Piper in the locker room who sets the tone. Rosen is not that type. But so is Rodgers, and I'm sure Belichick would have loved to coach him.

Plus, the money involved almost makes it a no-brainer, depending on what the Cardinals want back in return.

Too much talent. The Patriots are never in a position to take a quarterback who is viewed as a top-10 talent in successive drafts. The cost is almost nothing. And if you don't like him in a year, you can still trade him.

If the price is right from the Cardinals, don't be surprised if the Patriots make this deal.

And set off a bunch of curse words around the league.