Scouting report: Everything you need to know about the Pacers on offense

Ever since Victor Oladipo went down with a season-ending leg injury on January 23rd, no playoff team in the NBA has a worse record (17-19) than the Pacers. It’s with this backdrop that the Celtics walked into the ideal matchup for themselves in the first round of the postseason — despite the injury to Marcus Smart. The Pacers are a group of scrappy overachievers with grit, but they lack the talent to score at the level needed in the NBA Playoffs, particularly without their All-Star guard.

With that said, plenty of teams with lesser talent have given the Celtics all kinds of problems this season and Boston will certainly be more vulnerable on the defensive end of the floor without Smart in the mix for at least Round 1. With that mind, let’s take a closer look at what exactly the Pacers do well, where they will try to attack Boston and what the x-factors will be in the first round matchup when Indiana has the ball.

The Basics (Post Oladipo Injury — 39 games)
Pace: 99.89 (27th in NBA)
OffRtg: 107.0 (21st)
DefRtg: 106.8 (10th)
NetRtg: +0.2 (15th)

STRENGTHS

Turning turnovers into points: The Pacers rank third in the NBA (17.8 points per game off turnovers) in taking advantage of opponent miscues, a trait that is reflective of their ability to maximize opportunities. They don’t run much (third slowest pace in the NBA) but they are very good at forcing turnovers (third in NBA) and that translates into quick points thanks to their speed in the backcourt (Darren Collison, Cory Joseph, Tyreke Evans). They have guys who know how to finish on the break and they play selfless basketball that ultimately turns into a lot of good shots in transition opportunities. Losing Oladipo hurts in a lot of areas but this is one part of their game they have continued to thrive in despite his absence. The Celtics have done a good job all season taking care of the ball (top-5 in NBA) and that will need to continue here to prevent Indiana from getting easy points that they desperately need for an overall subpar offense.

3-point shooting: Incredibly, the Pacers have been the fifth-best 3-point shooting team in the league for the past three months despite having the 21st overall offense in the NBA. They have shot a superb 37.4 percent as a team with four key rotation players (Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Myles Turner, Doug McDermott) all shooting 38 percent or better from downtown. Bogdanovic is the head of the snake for this offense with his ability to come off double screens and pin-downs, while McDermott is featured with the bench unit. Turner and Collison are less frequent shooters but both are potent when they aren’t too tentative about firing. One of the bigger problems with the Pacers offense has been the fact that they don’t take the 3 enough despite having so many shooters. They rank 29th in the league in attempts per game (27.7) and that’s something that will probably need to change if they are going to have a chance in this series. Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier will need to be locked in to ensure these shooters don’t get going.

Scoring balance: Bogdanovic leads the Pacers averaging 18.0 ppg but there are seven different players on this Indiana roster who average double-digit points per game. Most of these guys aren’t capable of taking a game over, but the Celtics will not be able to slack off on the defensive end for most of this lineup. Outside of Sabonis, everyone can shoot the 3, which will test just how well connected Boston’s defense is. They will have to only help selectively since everyone on this team can make them pay from the perimeter. Outside of Bogdanovic and Sabonis, there isn’t a whole lot of guys here that need to be game planned for, but this group can get comfortable if they find ways to keep the Celtics defense off balance, especially at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

WEAKNESSES

Shot creation: Turner is probably the closest thing to an All-Star on this roster right now but his offense has remained underwhelming (14.1 ppg) in his fourth NBA season. He can shoot but he’s not a guy you can throw a ball to in order to get a bucket. Bogdanovic is really the only crafty scorer in this group and even he has plenty of limitations as he approaches age 30. Wesley Matthews is far past his prime. Tyreke Evans is shooting 38 percent. Darren Collison is a hesitant shooter. There’s no one here outside of Bogdanovic that Nate McMillan can feel comfortable with getting a good look at the end of the shot clock on a regular basis. If the Celtics stay solid and contest looks, they should be able to keep the scoring to a reasonable level.

Getting to free throw line: The Celtics found another team that just as hesitant to go to the free throw line as them. Unlike Boston, which prefers to fire from beyond the arc, the Pacers are low volume 3-point shooters and fail to create much contact in the paint either. Sabonis leads the team with 3.9 free throw attempts per game, Bogdanovic comes in behind him at 3.8 and no one else clears three per game. They rank 21st in the league in free throw rate with a bunch of point guards that don’t seek out contact. Evans is one guy here who is capable of performing better than his regular season numbers but he has not played well enough all year long to get more than 20 minutes per game due to his defensive issues. With Baynes and Horford manning the middle for big minutes every game together, the C’s should do well in this area as long as they aren’t piling up fouls at the beginning of quarters and getting themselves into the penalty.

A lack of strengths: They don’t shoot a lot of 3s, they don’t get to the line, they don’t offensive rebound well (although Sabonis is a force in that area) and they turn over the ball a little more than the usual team. The NBA playoffs are all about playing to your strengths and this roster simply have many on the offensive area of the floor. They lost their best weapon at midseason in Oladipo and the guy they brought in to fill his minutes (Matthews) is on the back nine of his career. The Celtics will need to remain committed to the glass and play smart, but they don’t have to worry about too many things with this team on the offensive end, which should allow them to hone on even more on the few things they do well.

Coming tomorrow...the Pacers on defense.