If you ask Bruce Cassidy, the challenge that comes when an 82-game slate is narrowed down to a single opponent is not identifying weaknesses in your playoff opponent. In fact, it’s the exact opposite.
“I think it’s about as much, for me personally, how to take away strengths,” Cassidy said. “How do you get them to have to adjust and try to win a game how they generally don’t, maybe, win it.
“With Toronto, we know it’s offense. They like to stretch the zone so, for us, that was what we really tried to work on last year, make them try to beat you different ways than that. But we’ll look at them again, so that’s the way I look at it. You’re really dialed into 23 players, then you’re probably going to see, 'How do we best fit?' So, that part of the game I like, the game-planning part, but it’s also about getting your guys in a good place and managing your people and keeping them in a good place through the highs and the lows because there will be lows.”
Newcomers like John Tavares, Jake Muzzin, Charlie Coyle and Marcus Johansson will add a different wrinkle to both the Bruins and Maple Leafs (after all, these clubs haven’t faced off since all the way back on Jan. 12), but there are plenty of returning players on both sides from last year’s seven-game slugfest. And with that familiar cast of characters back, so too return the various strengths and weakness on both sides that Cassidy and Mike Babcock will look to exploit and diminish over the next two weeks.
Here are eight key matchups that could tip the scales in favor of either club during this first-round rematch.
1. Bergeron Line vs. Tavares Line
Even before Toronto opened up the checkbook this past summer, the Leafs already boasted a potent top-six corps during the 2017-18 season, with Auston Matthews anchoring Toronto’s top line.
But the 21-year-old center was largely non-existent during Toronto’s first-round exit to Boston last spring, with the then-34 goal scorer limited to just one goal and two total points during the seven-game series. Why? A big portion of the credit has to go to Patrice Bergeron.
In total, Bergeron and Matthews were directly matched up for 26:24 of 5v5 time on ice (TOI) during the series. And during that stretch, Boston controlled possession at 56.1 percent, held a plus-6 edge in scoring chances generated while finishing with a plus-1 goal differential. As 98.5 The Sports Hub’s Ty Anderson noted on Friday — since Matthews made his debut with Toronto in 2016, the Leafs have not been able to score in 90:32 of even-strength TOI during the stretches in which both Bergeron and Zdeno Chara are patrolling the ice at the same time.
If a patented sniper like Matthews can’t get on the board against the Bruins during crunch time — what can the Leafs really do to put themselves over the top? Well, adding another franchise pivot in Tavares helps out quite a bit, as the former Islanders captain lit the lamp 47 times in his first season in Toronto. The addition of another superstar in Tavares — especially when paired with a Bruins killer (and franchise player in his own right) like Mitch Marner — has to complicate things quite a bit when it comes to matchups for the Bruins, right?
Well, not exactly.
With the Bruins and Maple Leafs closing out their entire four-game set of regular-season matchups over the span of just nine weeks, Bergeron was only able to play in two bouts against Toronto, with a rib/sternoclavicular injury putting him on the shelf for the other two meetings. But when he was cleared for game action — Bergeron and his usual linemates in Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak usually found their numbers called during the same time in which the Leafs’ trio of Marner, Zach Hyman and Tavares were out on the ice.
Tavares pretty much found himself in the same boat as Matthews during his face-to-face meetings with No. 37 — with Boston holding the edge in shot attempts (27-20), shots on goal (13-7) and goals (1-0) during 22:33 of 5v5 TOI.
“They’re obviously very creative, very smart hockey players, opportunistic,” Tavares said of Boston’s top line back on Nov. 10. “Patrice Bergeron is one of the most complete players in the game and doesn’t give you much room the other way.
“They don’t give you a whole lot, offensively as well. Really it’s a chess match and just making sure you’re doing the best you can on limiting their time and space and making them have to defend, we did that for good stretches tonight but not enough obviously they capitalized on their opportunities. “
(Tavares didn’t have much to write home about in his second head-to-head meeting with the Bergeron-Chara combination, landing just a single shot on goal in a losing effort at Scotiabank Arena.)
While Cassidy could opt to spread some of his defensive stalwarts around and place a player like Chara on a matchup against the Matthews’ line, one thing is for certain — if Toronto is going to punch its ticket to the second round for the first time since 2004, it’s going to need its fourth-ranked offense to hum at an effective rate. If Bergeron and Co. keep Tavares’ line in a black hole on offense, the Leafs are going to stall.
2. Matt Grzelcyk and Boston’s D corps. vs. Toronto’s forecheck
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. As a whole, Toronto’s stretch-pass happy system has allowed speedy players like Marner and Kasperi Kapanen, along with proven scorers like Tavares and Matthews, to fuel a Leafs’ offense averaging close to 3.5 goals per game with numerous quick-strike chances. But speaking with BostonSportsJournal, one Atlantic Division scout believes that Toronto’s breakout struggles against Boston’s forecheck over the last year-plus (more on that later) might open the window for the Leafs to switch things up with how they operate upon getting free in the neutral zone.
Boston’s roster might seem more conducive when it comes to establishing possession and winning puck battles on the forecheck, but it’s Toronto that actually holds the edge when it comes to opting for the dump and chase as a zone-entry method — with the Leafs tossing the biscuit in first 47.4 percent of the time (Boston dumps the puck in 46.0 percent).
The Leafs may not have personnel like Noel Acciari, Chris Wagner and David Backes to help take away time and space on the forecheck, but Boston will make things much easier on itself by getting the puck out of its own zone as soon as possible, especially before players like Matthews and Tavares can get set up in their usual offices and await a one-time look.
(Leave John Tavares alone in the slot at your own risk).
Thankfully for the Bruins, they have a couple of cheat codes on their defense that can help get pucks past their own blue line in a hurry. He may primarily skate on Boston’s third D pairing, but Matt Grzelcyk has emerged as a one-man breakout machine this season — using some quick acceleration and plus-level awareness to evade forecheckers and launch the first pass needed to start a breakout.
When it comes to possession exits — which stands as when a defender either carries the puck out of the zone or completes a successful pass out of the zone — Grzelcyk has been responsible for carrying or feeding the puck out of the Bruins’ defensive zone on 49.4 percent of his total exit attempts.
The only players in the entire NHL with higher possession exit percentages than Grzelcyk are Nick Leddy of the Islanders (49.41 percent) and Samuel Girard of the Avalanche (49.5 percent) — with the Charlestown native ahead of dynamic defensemen such as San Jose’s Erik Karlsson (48.5 percent) and Tampa Bay’s Ryan McDonagh (42.8 percent).
(Grzelcyk's absurd numbers when it comes to possession exits.)
When you toss Grzelcyk’s former collegiate teammate in Charlie McAvoy (33.96 possession exit percentage/16.1 break-up percentage) into the mix, Boston has a pair of options on the blue line that it will have to rely on in order to carry the puck out of the danger areas and feed it up to a forward down the other end of the ice.
So long as guys like Grzelcyk and McAvoy can get the puck away from Toronto’s forecheckers in a hurry, Toronto may not have any other option but to continue their go-to, but very risky, stretch passing.
“I think he can be a one-man breakout,” Cassidy said back in December of McAvoy’s efforts in both the defensive and neutral zone. “Very effective of getting to the net, getting out of the middle of the ice. Give us a few cleaner entries, rushes. Neutral zone, he’s pretty good at hitting that seam when it’s there, getting the forwards going with some easier attacks. … It’s the breakouts and the first-pass execution that I think is his bread and butter.”
(The Bruins are going to need Grzelcyk to be at his best when it comes to evading forecheckers and getting Boston's transition game going.)
3. Boston’s Forecheck vs. Toronto’s Breakout
For all of the shiny toys that both Boston and Toronto employ on the offensive side of things, it might just be good old-fashioned puck battles that will stand as the final determinant when it comes to success for either club. Sure, the Bruins may not exactly dump the puck in at quite the same rate as Toronto during its zone entries, but Boston actually has managed to land a higher number of shots per dump-in (0.40), despite a smaller sample size than the Leafs (0.37 shots per dump-in). Of course, you can hold a commanding edge in dump-ins over another team, but if you can’t retrieve said puck once you fire it ahead into the opposing team’s zone, then the shots aren’t going to be there for you, and you’ve squandered another entry attempt.
While Toronto’s go-to moves on offense usually feature a heavy dosage of stretch passes — to get the puck off the sticks of its so-so D corps and ahead to its talented forwards — an effective forecheck that takes away time and space can often force the Leafs into some costly miscues — as our Atlantic Division scout was quick to note.
Even without a ton of pressure placed on Toronto’s blueliners, mistakes are inevitable when a team opts for so many home-run feeds down the ice — as evidenced by Jake Gardiner’s deep pass into the neutral zone during Game 7 of last year’s series with Boston. With no Bruins skater pestering him in Toronto’s zone, Gardiner zipped the puck ahead all the way to Boston’s blue line, where it was subsequently picked off and sent back toward Frederik Andersen. Seconds later, Pastrnak gave Boston a two-goal cushion with under 10 minutes remaining in regulation.
Even with Sean Kuraly still sidelined for at least a week while recovering from a fractured hand, Boston’s bottom-six skaters such as Wagner, Acciari and Backes should all expect to be very busy in the Leafs’ zone when given the opportunity, as winning battles along the boards and taking away space will put more and more pressure on Toronto’s already porous defense. Get those defensemen to make some plays under duress during breakouts, and you could have some Grade-A chances handed to you on a silver platter.
“I think if you can recover pucks, they’ll get a little bit out of sorts,” Cassidy said of Boston’s strategy against Toronto back on Dec. 8. “They kill a little bit differently with forwards being closer to the net at times and playing way out away from the net if you have movements, so we try to move around as much as possible to make them make decisions."
(Pursue the puck carrier, get bodies in front, and the chances will be there against a Leafs defense that has relinquished four or more goals in 10 of their last 20 games.)
“I think my game is built for playoffs and my line is built for playoffs,” Acciari said on March 30. “We just get pucks in deep, be strong and find them to the net and just get guys there, and that’s how playoffs are going to be.”
Sometimes, all it takes is a win or two in the dirty areas or a body in front to make something out of nothing.
(Dec. 6 vs. Tampa Bay - Pastrnak pressures, McDonagh coughs one up and Boston capitalizes).
(Dec. 17 vs. Montreal - Winning puck battles lead to a great look in the slot — and a goal for Joakim Nordstorm).
4. Bruins Power Play vs. Themselves
Who else remembers this potential backbreaker of a shorthanded goal by Kapanen last April during Game 7? Yikes.
Luckily for the Bruins, the Maple Leafs’ penalty kill this season isn’t usually one to go for the throat during 4v5 play, with Toronto only scoring five shorthanded goals all year long. But on multiple occasions this season, Boston’s third-ranked power play (25.9 percent success rate) has invited disaster by its own doing — surrendering a league-worst 15 shorthanded goals in 2018-19.
"It’s an area of concern,” Cassidy said after Boston gave up its 15th shorty on Saturday against Tampa Bay. “My argument against it was we had some misplays of the puck back there that ended up in our net. ... Yeah it is an area of concern because Toronto’s going to have players that can bury it on the shorty, so we’re going to have to tighten up in that area, but it’s not as simple as saying, Hey guys let’s…you just have to be harder on the pucks. Understand which teams push hard to score goals when you’re on the power play. Who do they use?”
While Boston’s issues when it comes to relinquishing shorthanded goals have been a recurring problem throughout the year, quite a few can be chalked up to simple misplays in net, or poor puck luck near the blue line.
(Nov. 8 vs. Vancouver - Oh, oh no.)
(Dec. 23 vs. Carolina - OH NO.)
Other times, it’s the risk that comes with having power-play QBs like Torey Krug and Pastrnak hover near the blue line, with their tendencies to rotate down and dish the puck along the half wall often leading to trouble down the other end of the ice if the opposition is able to pick off a pass and counter right away.
(Krug rotates down — leaving Pastrnak alone at the blue line. When Buffalo gets numbers back the other way, the Bruins are done for).
Fifteen shorthanded goals allowed isn't pretty, but that’s the risk involved when you have aggressive, but effective players like Krug (30 power-play points) and Pastrnak (33 power-play points) operating in perilous areas of the ice. Still, the B’s will need to shore things up a bit, especially with a speedster like Kapanen out on PK duties.
Likewise, Boston’s PK unit is in need of a restart after hovering around the 60 percent mark for most of the final two weeks of the regular season. That can’t continue against a potent Toronto crew on the man advantage.
5. David Pastrnak vs. well … whoever Toronto thinks is going to stop him
This might be a bit of a carryover from the previous footnote on the Bergeron line’s sustained stretch of dominance against the Leafs — but let’s be candid: Whether it be the first line, David Krejci’s line or a checking line, Pastrnak is going to get his points against Toronto.
Over his last 13 games (postseason included) against the Leafs, Pastrnak has been on a warpath — tallying 12 goals and an absurd 25 total points. While Pastrnak was one of the main benefactors, scoring wise, of the Bergeron line’s hot streak during the 2018 postseason (13 points over 7 games against Toronto), the 22-year-old winger didn’t let up in 2018-19, scoring six goals and nine total points during four regular-season matchups. Of those four meetings this season, Pastrnak only had Bergeron serve as his pivot for two games.
No matter who Pastrnak has lined up next to (and there’s always a chance we could see Cassidy roll out a DeBrusk-Krejci-Pastrnak line at some point this series), he always seems to have Toronto’s number as of late — and the Leafs have been searching in vain for a solution to No. 88 over the last two seasons.
