McAdam: Examining Chris Sale's record-low fastball velocity and what it means

When Chris Sale was belted around in Seattle on Opening Day, it was a bit of a shock to the system.

Sale seldom is hit that hard and the three homers smacked by the Mariners served to create plenty of angst for Red Sox fans who wondered if Sale was healthy after last year's shoulder scare.

On Tuesday night, Sale had far better results, but his outing produced additional worry. Of the 87 pitches Sale threw, just 29 were fastballs, a strange pitch mix for the guy who arguably has been the best power pitcher in the game for the last five or so seasons.

Equally alarming were the radar gun readings. Sale was mostly 88-90 mph with his fastball and didn't hit 91-92 until his final inning of work. For the first time in his 10-year career, his average fastball velocity was below 90 mph for a start, and for the first time in an outing that lasted more than four innings, Sale registered exactly one (1) strikeout.

What, exactly, was this? Was this further evidence that something was ailing him?



Not at all, as it turned out. Sale insisted after the Red Sox' 1-0 loss to the A's that the decision to lean on his secondary pitches was all part of the plan.

"It kind of seemed like I had to revert over to my off-speed pitches more,'' Sale explained to reporters. "It just seemed like they were kind of waiting for the fastball, so we were kind of heavy on the changeup and slider tonight. It's kind of what we had to do. That was the game plan going through.

"It seemed like even if I threw two or three fastballs in an inning, they were ready for(them). You kind of see how the game goes, see how the swings go in the at-bats and adjust accordingly.''

So the decision to not throw his fastball as much was being dictated by the A's and their approach. Fine.

But it has to be at least a little worrisome that when Sale did go to his heater, they were often way below major league average velocity. Last year, average fastball velocity in the big leagues was 92 mph, and Sale himself frequently lives at 96-97 with his fastball.

Which is it? He didn't want to throw his fastball much? Or he didn't throw his fastball because his velocity was subpar?

If the answer is the former, that's fine. Sale is a smart enough competitor that he knows how to keep hitters off-balance. With a mixture of his secondary stuff, he produced plenty of weak swings, and other than Matt Chapman's first-inning solo homer, very few hard-hit balls.

This was comparable to Pedro Martinez's 1999 ALDS relief outing in Cleveland, when he tossed one scoreless inning after another despite not topping 90 mph with his fastball, relying instead on guile and guts.

"He pitched,'' said Alex Cora, emphasizing the word. "He kept throwing the changeup and they didn't make adjustments. We're trying to get outs and innings and we got six from him.''

It's good to know Sale can be so effective without his most obvious weapon. Every ace, no matter how good, will have occasional starts where he must determine a way to win without having his premium stuff.

And as Sale continues to build arm strength following the  Red Sox slow ramp-up for their starters in spring training, it's comforting to know that he can figure out alternate ways to be effective.

But Sale's recent history also raises some red flags here.

Even after Sale rested following the mild shoulder inflammation in his left shoulder last July, his fastball lacked its customary zip in the postseason. Opponents fouled off fastballs they normally wouldn't have touched and succeeded in driving up his pitch count.

In Seattle last Thursday, Sale's velocity was better, even if the outcome wasn't.

All of which begs the question: is Sale incapable of pitching even in the low-to-mid 90s with his fastball? Or is he merely choosing not to?

More than a little is riding on the answer. Sale remains the team's top starter and if he can't pitch to the level he has in recent seasons, it will be that much more difficult for the Red Sox to repeat as division champions, much less world champions.

Then, there's the matter of the $145 million contract extension the Sox signed him to less than two weeks ago. The organization had him undergo a complete physical before finalizing the deal, and has since sent him to the mound three times -- once in a Grapefruit League setting and twice now in the regular season. Presumably, they wouldn't be sending him out to the mound at all if he was experiencing physical issues with the shoulder -- or anything else, for that matter.

If this is all part of some Grand Plan to attack hitters differently until the Sox are ready to take off Sale's training wheels in May, then fine. The Sox are invested in maintaining his strength and having him as the peak of his powers in September, and, they hope, October, too.

But for now, it's more than little unsettling.

Like a four-game losing streak in the first week, Sale throwing his fastball at 89 mph is just one more thing that no one saw coming in 2019.