McAdam: What impact will Manny Machado's deal have on Mookie Betts?

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Baseball's free agent freezeout began to thaw some Tuesday with the news that Manny Machado had agreed to terms with the San Diego Padres on a 10-year, $300-million deal.

Machado was considered, along with the still-unsigned Bryce Harper, to represent the top of the free agent class that had, until Tuesday morning, not gotten a lot of traction.

Harper may well sign for more in the coming days or weeks, but for now, the bar has been somewhat set for other elite free agents.

"I think we're different players,'' said Mookie Betts, "and obviously, (my potential free agency) will be a different time. I don't want to speak about anybody else's free agency.''

Betts won't do the comparisons, but we can. What does Machado's deal mean for the Sox and Betts? Here are five thoughts:

BSJ ANALYSIS

1. If the Red Sox want to extend (or retain) Betts, they'll need to start with an average annual value of $30 million or more.

This was fairly evident from the beginning, but Machado's deal cinches it. It would be impossible to know how long a deal the Red Sox would be willing to commit to, but they now know that any deal with Betts is going to include him making, at minimum, $30 million annually.

Heck, after a pre-arbitration settlement last month, Betts will make $20 million this year and if his 2019 approaches his 2018 production, Betts could come close to $30 million in 2020, the Red Sox' final year of control.

2. Since Betts has had higher highs in his career than Machado, the case could be made that $30 million is on the low side.

It's difficult to compare the two evenly. Machado is an infielder while Betts plays the outfield. Machado is 26 now; Betts will be 28 as a free agent.

But this much is certain: Betts was the AL MVP in 2018 and finished a close second to Mike Trout in the MVP voting in 2016. In between, Betts finished sixth in 2017 in something of an "off'' year for him. By contrast, Machado, over six full seasons with the Orioles, never finished higher than fourth in AL MVP balloting (2015). He was fifth in 2016 and received no votes in either 2017 (when the Orioles weren't -competitive) or 2017 (when he was traded during the All-Star break to the National League).

Need more? Despite the fact that Machado has played nearly 300 more games than Betts, Betts already owns a higher career WAR (35.2 to Machado's 33.8).

3. While some teams may have shied away from Machado for some off-field issues, Betts has no such baggage.

Machado was tagged as a dirty player -- stemming from his takeout slide of Dustin Pedroia, and his intentional spiking of multiple first basemen in the postseason. He then further attracted attention with an October interview in which he claimed that he was never going to be "Johnny Hustle.''

For teams seeking to reward a player with hundreds of millions of dollars while also making him as the face of the franchise, Machado surely scared off some clubs which would have otherwise been interested.

Betts, meanwhile, has been controversy-free in his career.

4. Thanks to local TV deals, more teams could be interested bidders for free agents in the coming years.

The Padres are no one's idea of a big-spending, big market team. But thanks to a rights deal signed in 2012, the Padres reap an average of $50 million from their local deal and also have a 20-percent stake in FoxSports San Diego.

In this environment, live programming trumps nearly everything else as a valued commodity for broadcasters and other franchises will continue to get landmark TV deals.

If you thought the Red Sox' chief future competition will come only from the likes of the Yankees, Dodgers and Cubs...think again.

5. While the Machado signing could provide a springboard for contract extension talks, Betts didn't seem quite as certain.

"It's still tough to do (to get an extension done),'' cautioned Betts. "It took this long for (Machado's deal) to get done. It shows that it's tough to do. There are still a lot of guys out there and obviously, it's not easy and I'm kind of focused on what's going on right now.''

Still, in this case, the Red Sox are highly motivated to lock up Betts. They've been unwavering in pointing out that they wish to make him a member of the Red Sox for the rest of his career while stepping back as this free agent market unfolds.

Now that Betts has something of a guidepost to his own value and asking price, it will be fascinating to see where this goes next.