Detailing the Patriots use of the franchise tag during the Bill Belichick era

The franchise tag window for players opens Tuesday. How have the Patriots used the tag in the Bill Belichick era? And what are some possibilities this time around?



2002 -- Adam Vinatieri. He reached a long-term deal with the Patriots right before the March 15 deadline. His deal was fully guaranteed -- I don't recall any other veteran receiving a fully guaranteed deal from the Patriots during the Belichick era

2003 -- Tebucky Jones. They later traded him to New Orleans for a third-round pick in 2003, a seventh-round pick in 2003, and a fourth-round pick in 2004.

2005 -- Vinatieri. He played the 2005 season under the tag and then in free agency in 2006. The Patriots received a sixth-round compensatory pick in 2007 for losing Vinatieri.

2007 -- Asante Samuel. Samuel played the 2007 season under the tag and then left the Patriots in free agency in 2008. The Patriots received a third-round compensatory pick in 2009.

2009 -- Matt Cassel. Cassel and Mike Vrabel were traded to the Chiefs for a second-round pick the day after free agency began.

2010 -- Vince Wilfork. He and the Patriots reached a long-term deal a couple of weeks later.

2011 -- Logan Mankins. He and the Patriots reached a long-term deal in August.

2012 -- Wes Welker. He played that season under the tag and left in free agency in 2013. The Patriots received a third-round compensatory pick in 2014.

2015 -- Stephen Gostkowski. He was tagged in February and immediately signed. He and the Patriots then agreed to a long-term deal right before the July 15 deadline.

In all, since 2000, the Patriots have used the franchise or transition tag nine times. That's tied for the second-most in that span.

[table id=247 /]

If we exclude punters and kickers, the Patriots will have used the tag six times, which is tied for fourth-most.

[table id=255 /]

The Patriots have used the tag on a
Kicker - 3
Quarterback - 1
Safety - 1
Guard - 1
Wide Receiver - 1
Defensive Tackle - 1
Cornerback - 1

while the entire NFL has tagged these amounts

[table id=254 /]

All of the above numbers include transition tags and tags that were later withdrawn.

In my mind, the Patriots have 3 possible candidates for a franchise tag: Trey Flowers, Trent Brown, and Stephen Gostkowski.

--If the league cap is $190 million, then it will take $14.201 million to tag Brown. New England has three possible starters at the tackle position (Brown, Isaiah Wynn, and Marcus Cannon). Wynn is signed through the 2021 season with an option for 2022, while Cannon is signed through 2021. To my mind, tagging Brown means one of two things: having Wynn become the highest paid swing-tackle in the NFL or removing Cannon -- who is due less than $18 million the next three years -- from the roster. Ultimately, I expect Patriots not to tag Brown and for him to sign with another team. Brown's new deal will be large enough to earn New England a third-round compensatory pick in the 2020 draft.

--If the league cap is $190 million, then it will take $17.291 million to tag Flowers, but I don't see the Patriots tagging him. I expect a replay of what happened with Devin McCourty in 2015 where he talked to teams but eventually returned, leaving some money on the table but still becoming one of the highest paid safeties at that time. As long as the bidding does not go over $18 million a year and Flowers is willing to give the Patriots a discount -- however small -- I expect him to remain in New England.

--If the Patriots are confident that Gostkowski is not looking to break the bank, he'll be tagged at a cost of $5.98 million ($5.88 million salary and $100,000 offseason workout bonus). Why? Past history tells us he'll sign the tag immediately guaranteeing his $5.88 million salary. Once he signs the tag, he has the leverage in the long-term deal negotiations with the Patriots -- any long-term deal will be on his terms or closer to his terms. (He also knows he will not be tagged again, as a third tag would pay him the QB franchise tag number.)

If he does not like the Patriots' best offer, he will earn $5.98 million this year and get a chance to earn more in 2020 via a signing bonus. The last time Gostkowski was tagged, his tag number was $4.59 million and he signed a $4.3 million APY (Average Per Year) deal. The $4.3 million APY was 93.7 percent of his tag number. The equivalent number today with a $5.98 million tag number is $5.6 million. When his 2015 deal -- $4.3 million -- remains the highest for a kicker, I can't see Patriots giving an older Gostkowski a 30 percent raise. So if the Patriots tag Gostkowski, they're demonstrating confidence that a long-term deal will be closer to his 2015 deal than a contract that accounts for the increase in the cap since then.

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