SB LIII Gameplan Questions: Can the Rams hold Patriots running game in check?

ATLANTA — During the Patriots' postseason run to Super Bowl LIII, we've seen them use a physical running game to allow the passing game to be efficient.

In wins over the Chargers and Chiefs, the Patriots ran the ball (82 attempts) almost as many times as they threw it (90). Sony Michel has been the workhorse, with 53 carries and a 4.6-yard average.

The key to the running game? The Patriots have taken advantage of lighter fronts to manhandle opponents. They don't do anything offensively unless they know it stands a good chance of success. That they've run it so often and well doesn't come from a mentality of, "We need to run to set up the pass." Other teams that don't make four Super Bowls in five years do that. New England does things because they know it can — or, at least, they believe they can — due to matchups.

The Patriots had them against the Chargers and Chiefs.

Will the Patriots have a matchup advantage on Super Bowl Sunday against the Rams? Let's break it down, because this will go a long way to determining the winner.

You'll hear a lot of talk about how Los Angeles' rushing defense was poor over the course of the season. That is indeed true — the Rams finished 23rd with 122.3 yards allowed per game and were 28th in efficiency — but it's not really germane to this discussion. First, it doesn't really matter how you did in the first half of the season. And personnel matters.

Basically, the Rams were a much different defense all around when Aqib Talib missed nine weeks with an injury. They've been much different in recent weeks, especially in playoff wins over Dallas (50 yards rushing) and New Orleans (48). It makes sense: If you feel better about your coverage, you'll be freed up to put more players in the box against the run.

The Rams' two-game uptick also coincided with nose tackle Ndamukong Suh deciding to finally be the dominant player he can be when he feels like it.

That being said, don't be quick to read too much into the past two games, especially the win over the Cowboys. The Rams shut down Ezekiel Elliott largely because the Cowboys had suffered injuries at left guard and center (Travis Frederick is arguably the best center in the league) and were simply outgunned.

The victory over the Saints, however, that was impressive. New Orleans is very close to the Patriots in terms of offensive line talent, scheme, structure and efficiency. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara were just about stopped in their tracks (46 yards on 17 carries) and that set the stage for the Rams' upset.

Could the same thing happen in the Super Bowl?

Quite possibly. Let's first look at some of the film from that game.



The thing that stands out here is the Rams weren't even all that disciplined in how they got lined up, and they still stopped the Saints.

The other thing: Suh came to play, and that makes running a tough deal when you combine his strength with Aaron Donald's quickness.

In general, the Rams provide some of the same opportunities the Chargers and Chiefs did to enable the Patriots to run the ball well. L.A. may be a base 3-4, but with former safety Mark Barron as one of the inside linebackers, it's really a nickel defense. With Barron, all of the Rams' linebackers weight 255 pounds or less and they emphasize speed over strength. None of them are known as good run defenders. So, if the Patriots can get to the second level, they can impose their will on another opponent on the way to victory.

That's the whole thing with this Rams defense ... how exactly are you going to do that with Suh, Donald and Michael Brockers on the inside?

Like the Saints, most teams will double Donald at all times. While the Patriots will spin the dial in terms of how they block up front, Donald is either going to get doubled or run away from a lot. Brockers is just a space eater and doesn't make many plays. Suh is the real key. He may see a lot of single blocks and he could have the chance to dictate the interior game.

That's why I don't think we'll see the Patriots do a lot of that. If New England is successful running the ball in this game, I think it's going to be on the edges, at least initially.

If the opponent is strong on the inside, why even test it? I expect the Patriots to use a lot of power runs with pulling players (guards, center and tight ends) and jet sweeps to the outside. Fold down against Donald and Suh, and make players like Samson Ekubam and Dante Fowler have to hold up against the likes of Shaq Mason, Rob Gronkowski and James Develin.

A) I don't think they can do it over the course of the game, and B) it will get Suh running sidelines to sidelines and frustrated. Wham him on a few inside runs and watch him start to lose his pop off the line.

And the Rams may very well load the box against 21 (two backs, one tight end) or even 22 personnel, leaving the Patriots' receivers one-on-one on the outside. Quick slants, hitches and speed outs could be available for Tom Brady to throw the ball quickly — another way to take the steam out of the Rams' stout interior defense.

These are all good, sounds and effective plans for the Patriots against Los Angeles if they execute at a high rate. Of course, Donald and Suh are so talented that sometimes that doesn't even matter. New England could have a great plan, but if Donald and Suh are just better than they are, it's not going to matter.

It would be helpful if the Patriots ran the ball efficiently on Sunday, but I don't think it's vital. I think Brady can still make plays through the air if the running game is grounded.

But that's a tough row to hoe on the way to a Super Bowl title.