How does Kristaps Porzingis trade impact Anthony Davis chase, Kyrie's future and the Celtics?

Amid all the Anthony Davis speculation over the past 72 hours, another shockwave was sent through the NBA landscape on Thursday afternoon as multiple reports confirmed the Mavericks will be acquiring Kristaps Porzingis from the Knicks on the heels of the seven-footer voicing his dismay to the New York front office.

Here are the particulars of the deal.

Knicks receive: Dennis Smith Jr., Wesley Matthews, DeAndre Jordan and two future first-round picks.

Mavs receive: Porzingis, Courtney Lee, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke.

Why did the Knicks do it? It appears they were wary of investing big in a disgruntled Porzingis who is currently rehabbing from a torn ACL. He could have forced their hand and played on a qualifying offer next year and it doesn’t look like the Knicks wanted to spend big on a seven-footer coming back from a serious knee injury that had issues with the organization. They used him first and foremost in this deal to get off bad contracts. Lee ($12 million through next season) and Hardaway Jr. ($18 million through 2020-21) are overpaid for their production and moving them both now clears the books for the Knicks next year. Once this deal is done, they will have roughly $72-76 million in projected salary cap space for 2019-20, which should give them easily enough room to sign two max free agents in the summer. Giving up Porzingis is a steep cost to do that, but they also get the upside of Smith Jr. a future first round pick and whatever assets they can squeeze from Matthews/Jordan ahead of deadline (probably none).

Why did the Mavs do it? This is their chance to take a flier on a star to pair with fellow international phenom Luka Doncic and potentially take the torch from Dirk Nowitzki. They also were positioned to have max cap space this summer but this young rebuilding core wasn’t likely to appeal to top-flight free agents. Instead, of overspending on a couple of second tier guys, the Mavs elected to rent out that cap room in order to bring Porzingis aboard. They move on from Smith Jr as well and have to give up a pick. It’s not a risk-free investment for them either, but they at least get a chance to evaluate Porzingis internally before making a big financial investment to him as reports indicate he is planning to play on a qualifying offer for next season. From a marketing standpoint, this is a big win for them as well with a pair of Euro phenoms.

Should the Celtics have been in on Porzingis? Given the injury concerns and defensive limitations, I lean towards no. The Knicks clearly wanted any team taking him on to clear their books of bad contracts and the Celtics weren’t in the position to do that, contend this year and stay in the running for Davis. Gordon Hayward could have been offered but the Knicks wanted expiring contracts clearly to clear their books. No one else on the Celtics roster with an expiring contract makes close to enough to match the money on those contracts from Hardaway Jr. and Lee. Boston could have offered some young pieces and picks, but that's all ammo they need to keep for any Davis deal.

How does this all impact the Celtics, Kyrie's future and the Anthony Davis chase? There’s no question that the Knicks have positioned themselves to be a serious player here this summer, one way or another. They also gave up one of their best young assets for that ability, a gamble that seems foolish on the surface.

Perhaps they knew Porzingis was not going to stay long-term anyway, but it speaks volumes that he would be willing to risk millions for the opportunity to walk away in unrestricted free agency in 2020 by playing on a qualifying offer next season.

Dealing Porzingis now gives them one less piece to offer up for the time being in the Anthony Davis chase and any hope of them getting involved on that front in the summer now strictly lies with their ability to land a top pick in the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery. The good news for the Celtics is that the Knicks will have no better odds than a 13.5 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick thanks to the revamped lottery odds. The Celtics can rest easier after lottery night but those are not big enough odds to worry about, limiting them a chance to dangle Zion Williamson for Davis.

No matter how the draft lottery shakes out, the bigger bet here made by the Knicks is on landing some big names in a 2019 free agency class that includes Kyrie Irving. We’ve seen the rumors come out over the last few days regarding ‘uncertainty’ that Irving stays in Boston that have been floated in Anthony Davis reports, even though sources indicated to BSJ earlier this week that the Celtics still felt good about retaining him, something that Danny Ainge reiterated this morning in an appearance with Toucher and Rich.

Here’s a look at the other top tier free agents that are expected to be on the market in July:

Kevin Durant
Kawhi Leonard
Irving
Jimmy Butler
Khris Middleton
Klay Thompson
Tobias Harris
Kemba Walker

It would not be a surprise to see two of those names land in New York, but it’s hard to think any of the top tier names would choose New York as constituted if their primary motivation was to contend for a title in the future. Here’s a look at what’s left on the Knicks books for next season.

Dennis Smith Jr.
Kevin Knox
Frank Ntilikina
Allonzo Trier
Lance Thomas
Damyean Dotson
Mitchell Robinson
Top 5 pick

That’s not exactly a core that will quickly morph into a contender, even if Irving and Durant join up. For any player that wants to win, it’s going to be hard to do that with this roster as constituted. If the Knicks land Williamson in the draft and can trade him for AD? That changes things. However, the odds of that happening is low. A lower lottery pick could be dealt for more veteran help but would still leave the Knicks with minimal depth.

With that said, the whispers will be out there connecting Irving, Durant and the Knicks for the remainder of the season in the wake of this transaction. While Durant seems to be a true wildcard (he’s been rumored to leave the Warriors after this year for months), Irving’s comments on the matter in the coming days will be telling. He hasn’t spoken with the media since suffering a hip injury (NBA rules don’t require him to). He made a commitment to Boston and despite a rocky season, the C’s seem to have found their footing in the past month after some internal turmoil.

No matter how you slice it, Boston still has the assets to put together a better contender for the foreseeable future than New York or any other potential free agent suitor, assuming that Davis remains on the trade market for them in the summer. That could be the trump card over a potential pairing with Durant in New York for Irving. If Davis goes to LA before the deadline though, things could get dicey if the season ends in a disappointing fashion here.

Either way, the soap opera in the NBA just took another twist and the Celtics are going to be waiting anxiously over the next seven days in hopes their top trade target remains on the market. The good news for Boston? The Knicks have had a terrible front office for years now so it's all quite possible this is yet another gamble that blows up in their face.