Hot Stove Lunch: Craig Kimbrel's return to Red Sox still unlikely

A number of people -- scouts, executives, reporters -- who believe a Craig Kimbrel-Red Sox reunion is all-but-inevitable.

They point to the lack of options elsewhere for Kimbrel and the Red Sox' gaping hole at the back end of their bullpen.

Kimbrel needs a team. The Red Sox need a closer. Simple, right?

That's the thinking anyway. But as one established reliever after another comes off the board, the Sox aren't spending at all. They weren't willing to match the $23 million over two years for David Robertson or the $18 million for Kelvin Herrera.

Why, then, would they be willing to commit, say, $50 million over three years for Kimbrel?

Answer: they're not.

Or at least that's what Dave Dombrowski hinted here, in an interview with USA Today's Bob Nightengale.

Dombrowski didn't come right out and say the door had been closed on Kimbrel. But as he broadly hinted at last month's winter meetings, the Sox "have not anticipated having a large expenditure for a closer.’’

Does that sound like someone sitting back and waiting to offer tens of millions to Kimbrel? Not hardly.

Elsewhere...

AL EAST

CC Sabathia has been cleared to resume baseball activities, which may make it easier to deal Sonny Gray.

What to expect from the Rays as spring training approaches.

What's left for the Blue Jays to do this winter?

AL CENTRAL 

The White Sox' strategy with Manny Machado seems simple enough.

The Indians are getting ready to hold their annual FanFest.

The Tigers are trying to find a way to fit a prospect into their lineup.

The Royals will have plenty of roster flexibility.

AL WEST 

Scouting and development are helping the Astros remain strong.

Texas found some bullpen depth in Japan.

The Angels are in discussions with the Giants about some bullpen help.

Can Ichiro still help the Mariners?

NATIONAL LEAGUE

A.J. Pollock and the Mets may not be a good fit after all.

HOT TAKE I MAY SOON REGRET

At a time when baseball's revenues are soaring comes word that MLB payrolls actually decreased last season -- the first time since the 2010 season that spending went backward.

There are a number of reasons for this, not the least of which is that free agents have had a harder time signing the projected big deals many expected both last winter and this one.

A trend throughout the game has resulted in teams prioritizing younger (and thus, cheaper) players at the expense of veterans, who, by definition, are going to cost more.

It's fine for teams to spend their money wisely and in ways in which they expected more return. But if teams are taking in more money than ever before, shouldn't they be re-investing in the product?