A few early thoughts on next Sunday’s Patriots-Chargers divisional playoff contest at Gillette Stadium:
1. On the surface, this looks like it has the potential to be a really fun game with a lot of above-the-marquee type of talent: Tom Brady vs. Philip Rivers, Stephon Gilmore vs. Keenan Allen, Joey Bosa vs. Trent Brown and Bill Belichick vs. Anthony Lynn. But one of the wild cards in this one is going to be Melvin Gordon’s health. The Chargers back has been dealing with a knee issue for much of the season, and he was dinged up in the win over the Ravens. If he’s at something close to 100 percent, he brings an added dynamic option to that Los Angeles offense. If he can’t go, I’m not sure there’s a more dramatic drop-off (at least when you’re talking about skill position guys) from one spot to the next. This story from The Ringer is a good one when it comes to explaining Gordon’s importance.
2. Texted a scout to get his thoughts on Patriots-Chargers: “Key for Pats is stopping the running game of the Chargers. If they hold them to 100 rushing yards or less, they will force Rivers and his receivers to win the game in what could be frigid temperatures, and that’s not a great situation for LA. For the Pats’ offense, they have to protect Brady, allowing him time to take advantage of what looks like will be some real mismatches they will have in the passing game.”
3. I mean this in the best way possible — Rivers is bananas, a competitor with that crazy-old-man streak in his game. (More than any of the other plus-35 quarterbacks left in the postseason, anyway.) That approach has played a role in LA's remarkable road record — the Chargers have now won road games in Seattle, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. His gonzo energy is going to make next week’s game even more fun.
4. A few in-depth statistical notes worth passing along, via the NFL Game Statistics & Information System: Rivers is most secure with the short throws over the middle. Over the regular season, the Chargers were second in the league when it came to most short pass attempts over the middle (177). They averaged 7.76 yards per play, 16th in the NFL. Meanwhile, Patriots are 12th the league (7.28 yards per play allowed) in defending short passes over the middle, which means that will be a matchup worth watching. (Rivers’ least favorite target area? Short left. He’s is last in the league in pass attempts short left — 105 — and their average of 4.99 yards per play is worst in the league.) When it comes to the running game, L.A. is most comfortable on the edges — the Chargers’ average yards per carry of 7.49 on running plays around right end is the best total in the league. Around left end, they average 6.53 yards per carry, the ninth-best rate in the NFL. The Patriots are middle of the road when it comes to defending rushes around right end (4.79 yards per carry allowed, 13th), but struggle on the other side — New England allowed 7.28 yards per carry around left end, 28th in the NFL.
5. One of the things that should be talked about more than it will be this week is the New England special teams advantage. Setting aside the fact Michael Badgley connected on five field goals against the Ravens, the Chargers have always been a bit of an adventure on special teams. They’ve had seven kickers the past two seasons, and had issues in punt coverage. Baltimore blocked a punt against them on Sunday, and overall, L.A. was 25th in Football Outsiders' special teams DVOA. (By way of comparison, New England was 16th in the same category.) It’s been a struggle for them as of late, but while the Patriots have had issues at times this year, it sets up to be an advantage for New England heading into the game.
6. Forecast for next Sunday in Foxborough. Not what you would call Chargers' weather:
