Robb: The troubling numbers within Terry Rozier's shot selection

There was always going to be risk for Terry Rozier when he turned down a contract extension from the Celtics this fall. He knew his role was going to be diminished on this team but he bet on himself and the fact that his skillset would still shine in limited minutes against bench opponents. That and the prospect of a big payday in free agency next summer were too enticing to turn down, a very understandable position.

Yet, a closer look at his numbers 34 games into the season reveals some troubling trends. The Celtics are a lot worse defensively when Rozier is on the court and that’s a problematic sign for a fourth-year guard that is usually matched up against second units. He’s had his good nights and bad nights on that end, and Thursday night was one of the bad ones

However, the more pressing concern for me right now is on the offensive end. His shooting has regressed from an efficiency standpoint as well, with Rozier knocking down just 37 percent of his shots on the year, right in line with his career average.

While he’s still hitting 3s (35 percent) at a respectable clip, his game inside the arc has taken a bigger step back. The best shot in the league from 2-point range is at the rim and that’s simply an area Rozier is not getting to much this season.

The good news is Rozier is actually shooting a career-high 70 percent from the field inside of 3 feet, which is easily the best mark of his career and a huge jump from his 50.9 percent career conversion rate at the rim. The problem? Rozier is only taking 10 percent of his shots at the rim. That’s a 66 percent decrease from his rookie year mark (30 percent) in that range and easily stands out as the fewest attempts on the roster.

So where all of his shots coming from instead? Rozier is settling more than ever, particularly from 16-22 feet, where he is taking 13 percent of his shots, the most on the team outside of Jayson Tatum. He’s also knocking down just 22 percent of those attempts, which is easily the lowest mark of his career and is dead last on Boston’s roster among regular shooters.

He also ranks second on the team in shots attempted in the lane (3-10 feet) behind Al Horford. You don’t mind bigs taking shots from there, but a 6-foot-3 guard is usually taking questionable floaters from that area of the floor.

The end result? Rozier is shooting 40 percent from 2-point range, which is one of the worst six marks in the NBA among players who have played 600 minutes this season. Only inefficient pieces such as Patrick Beverley, Kevin Knox, Alec Burks, Frank Ntilikina and Tyreke Evans have been worse than Rozier.

Over 50 percent of his shots are coming from inside the arc, so this is clearly an area in which Rozier is not coming to terms with his ability. He should keep letting them fly from downtown whenever he’s open, but if he’s not getting to the rim, he needs to cut out the midrange garbage. He’s not making nearly enough of them to justify his volume, especially as long as shots like this keep happening.



Kyrie Irving made some pointed remarks after the game last night to reporters in Houston and Rozier wasn't singled out individually, but he may as well have been with what the All-Star was describing.

“I think the next step for us is just knowing that there are just other opportunities for you to be a basketball player other than having the ball in your hands. You don’t need the ball to just dribble, dribble and shoot a fadeaway every single time. You can cut backdoor. You can screen for a teammate. There are other things to help an offense flourish rather than just standing out on the perimeter.

“I think sometimes we get stagnant, even when I’m out there sometimes. So I’ll crash the offensive glass, or I’ll screen in, screen here, or fade, or I’ll play the dunker spot just so we have balance.”

The Celtics need Rozier for his rebounding, low turnover rate and energy, but they also need him to be doing some of the things Irving is describing instead of trying to knock down tough shots. If not, it’s going to be tough for Brad Stevens to keep justifying his minutes if he doesn’t recognize his limitations more, since it's hurting the C's offense when he's out there.