Scout's Take: Breaking down Patriots as final quarter of regular season looms

With four games left in the regular season, we wanted to ask an opposing scout what he thought of the Patriots at this point on the calendar, and what they still need to improve on down the stretch before the start of the playoffs. Here’s what he told us:

When it comes to the New England offense, one of the things that stands out is the lack of speed in the passing game. Against a good defense in the postseason, that could be an issue.

“If you’re game-planning against the Patriots’ offense right now, I’d continue to try and force (Tom) Brady into long throws, try and get him under duress, and cut the legs out from that running game,” he said. “Even though (Josh) Gordon has become a nice part of their offense, I still don’t respect the speed they have on the offensive side of the ball. Force him into throwing in the middle of the field between the numbers, stack the line and take the middle of the field away.

“Right now, if I’m game-planning to beat Brady, my safeties are at 10 yards, and backpedaling from there. There’s not enough speed, and they don’t have guys who can consistently get separation underneath, maybe other than (James) White or (Julian) Edelman. You set your secondary with quarter-quarter halves, which should limit his ability to make those easy throws. You don’t have a single-high safety. A single-high safety set in the secondary helps Brady way too much.”

To his point, here's the breakdown of the New England passing offense through the first 12 games of the regular season, via the NFL's Game Statistics & Information System.



He said people don’t spend enough time focused on the importance of the running game. It not only offers the ability to move the ball, it also allows Brady the option of play-action, one of the most important offensive options in his tool belt. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer called the Patriots the best play-action team in the league, and the scout said Brady’s completion rate of 82 percent out of play-action over the last six games could go even higher before the start of the playoffs.

“The Patriots without a running game are vulnerable. If you stop the guys they have back there, they won’t win,” he said. “Zimmer was right. There are good teams out there when it comes to play action, but if Brady is able to get play action with this group, it is (expletive) over. By the time the playoffs hit, that completion percentage might be up to 90 percent. That’s when that offense is really unstoppable.”

Ultimately, there are still question marks — an ability to run the ball consistently, the need to stay healthy, and an occasionally inconsistent pass rush are three things that stood out to him. But in the end, with four games to go and the playoffs on the horizon, they still stack up favorably when compared to the rest of the AFC.

“They’re still vulnerable in spots,” he said. “Their pass rush has to start getting home and getting more sacks — they can’t just (settle) for the pressures. That’s good, but this time of year, they need more. But they’re in a pretty good spot right now. I want to say that it’s them, the Chiefs and maybe the Steelers and Chargers for the AFC title. A lot of the teams the Patriots have matched up with this year have sort of fallen apart. But you look at the personnel and teams around them right now, they are right where they should be.”