Football in December. You have to love it. This is really the month that separates the men from the boys. Weather conditions across the country deteriorate and things get real! Historically, at least during the Tom Brady era, this is the time of year that the Patriots have ramped up and kicked their real season off. The bad weather has been a welcomed condition.
Warm weather teams, and teams that play in domes, have struggled. I have personally experienced the dramatic shift in temperature. In 2013, I was fortunate to be part of a team at Coastal Carolina that played in the second round of the National Playoffs against Montana ... yes, at Montana! When we left Myrtle Beach Airport to travel to Missoula it was 78 degrees. When we touched down in Montana it was 3 degrees. The amount of preparation that goes into a game like this when you're the warm weather team is significant. No matter what you do, you can't truly get ready for this condition shift. Everything is slightly different. The ball feels different, its a little different breathing, and your body feels different as you have to wear more gear. When you add precipitation or wind to the cold weather, this effect is only amplified. Oh, by the way, we won that game! We knocked off the No. 4 team in the country. It was an experience that I will never forget and probably the coldest I have ever been in my life.
I am excited to welcome the dome-playing Minnesota Vikings to town. It appears as though we may have some rain on Sunday. Temperatures will probably be in the 40s. My only wish is that it would be colder ... let it snow!
On this Vikings team, I have one real connection. I recruited their starting right tackle, Brian O'Neill. He is from Delaware and attended Salesianum High School. In college football, a lot of what you do in recruiting has to do with projecting high school players to what position they will play in college. More often than not, kids playing defensive back become linebackers, linebackers become defensive linemen, and so on. Brian was a tight end and defensive end in high school, and he also happened to be a good lacrosse player. As a senior in high school, Brian was just over 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds. He thought he was a tight end, and that's what college coaches told him, of course with a wink. He was destined for the trenches. I offered him a scholarship in the spring of his junior year. At that time, he was relatively unknown and I thought we had a real shot. He visited Coastal Carolina that summer leading into his junior year and we were squarely in the mix. Somehow, his senior film got out and he blew up. He ended up with close to 20 offers and we lost him... Anyway, he went to Pittsburgh and proceeded to gain 80 pounds and grow another inch and ended up getting drafted by the Vikings. He's a great kid, from and really good family. I'm happy to see him do so well. I just wish we could've made him a Chanticleer!
After spending a lot of time watching this Minnesota Viking team, I have developed a real appreciation for Mike Zimmer and his coaching staff. This is a very well coached team. They are creative with their scheme (particularly on defense), their players play hard, and they play to their team's strengths. I'm really looking forward to the chess match between Zimmer and Bill Belichick.
VIKINGS OFFENSE
The Vikings have a talented group. They have also done a nice job adjusting their scheme to meet their roster talent. They like to get in and out of 11 and 12 personnel mostly. Much like the Patriots, they will run all of their formations out of those two personnel groupings. In the passing game, they really like to try and get the ball out quickly. They are a West Coast-based pass game and will work compressed formations in order to uncover coverages. When they want to take downfield shots, they will try and do so out of max protection or play action in order to freeze the pass rush. They will utilize their running backs in the pass game in an attempt to get matchups on linebackers. In the run game, the Vikings are primarily a zone team. They will run some power/gap concepts but that is not what they do best. Off of the run game, this is not a true run/pass option offense. They will, however, move the launch point and utilize boots/nakeds off of run action.
Quarterback: At quarterback, Kirk Cousins is their guy. To me, he is sneaky good. I want to say he is truly just a game manager. However, when you look at his statistics, that is clearly not the case. He has very good arm strength and makes good decisions. He is definitely a rhythm quarterback and needs consistency from his route runners in order to be successful. He is not a gunslinger and has shown that he will struggle when things break down. He shows some athleticism but will not beat you with his feet.
Running backs: The running back group on this team is talented. Dalvin Cook is the big-name guy that they have. He has been banged up so far in his career having torn his ACL last season and pulled his hamstring this season. It appears as though he is starting to get healthy. He is good. He's a speed back with really good change of direction. He's dangerous in the pass game as well. The Vikings also have Latavius Murray. He is almost the exact opposite of Cook. He is a big running back who gets downhill and behind his pads. In Cook's absence, he has had a nice season, but he is not the home run hitter that Cook is.
Tight ends: The Vikings carry three tight ends and Kyle Rudolph is their starter. He is a good NFL tight end. He is better as a receiver than a run blocker. He does create matchup problems in the pass game and must be accounted for. He is also a big red zone target. David Morgan is their second tight end and he is more of an inline player. He's a solid blocker but not much of a threat in the pass game.
Receivers: The most talented group on this offense is their receiver group. They have some game changers at this position. With Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, they have two legitimate Pro Bowl candidates. Laquon Treadwell is their third receiver and he has ability as well. Out of this group, Diggs is the guy that really scares me. It sounds as though he is dealing with an injury. He is the real difference maker. He has the ability to go up and get the ball and has top-end speed that allows him to chase balls down. Thielen is more of a possession receiver, he is an excellent route runner and has very good hands (he would look great in a Patriots uniform). Treadwell has shown playmaking ability, he just seems very inconsistent in his play.
Offensive line: The weakness of this offense, much like the rest of the teams in the NFL, is their offensive line. The Vikings have done a good job with their scheme in trying to protect this group. They are built around finesse — they are athletic but not overpowering. In the run game, they do a nice job with their zone scheme. They can reach gaps and are able to get to the second level and sustain blocks. Against more physical defensive lines that get off the ball and reestablish the line of scrimmage, this group gets in trouble. In pass protection, they are able to get to spots in their pass sets but once again, they get pushed back often and end up in Cousins' lap. This game will not be as much about getting sacks but more about getting pressure on Cousins and disrupting his timing in the pass game. The weakest offensive linemen in this group are center Pat Elflein and right guard Mike Remmers. Their left tackle, Riley Reiff, is the most consistent of the group and probably their best offensive lineman.
VIKINGS DEFENSE
I really like what the Vikings do on defense. They are creative, multiple, and do a great job with pre-snap disguises. I almost feel like NFL defensive coordinators have given up on the hope of being good on defense. They succumb to the idea that they are going to give up points and try to figure out how to limit the amount of points they allow. Thus, their creativity is limited and they react to offenses as opposed to attack offenses. As I've watched all of this NFL film this year, it's almost been boring watching teams scheme on defense. They've been very vanilla and don't take many chances. The Vikings are somewhat of a breath of fresh air. They are a group that is diverse in scheme and play hard with a lot of energy.
You will see a variety of coverages and looks. They are one of the few NFL teams that are still playing versions of Cover 4. They will also run some Cover 2 and 2-man. They are not a big Man Free or Cover 3 team but will do some of it. Up front, they are a four down, even 4-3 type team. The one area that I've been most impressed with is their blitz package. They clearly game plan their opponent's protections and attack those protections accordingly. They will play man and zone coverage behind their blitzes and will often drop defensive linemen into coverage. They match personnel and will get in and out of nickel and dime personnel.
Defensive line: Their line is the group that makes this thing go. Against the run, they are more of a read and cover up group. They are athletic and do a nice job covering up gaps and properly reacting to blocks. Against the pass, they do a nice job transitioning their pass rush and get push on the pocket. As a result of their technique, their weakness is against the downhill power run game. They will get pushed back on double teams. Danielle Hunter is their best pass rusher at defensive end. He is very good technically and works his hands really well. He is someone that the Patriots need to account for. Everson Griffen is the other defensive end. He has a ton of ability but has missed some time this season and hasn't yet played up to his ability. I have a feeling that he could step up this week. Linval Joseph and Sheldon Richardson do a really nice job inside and are very active in pass rush situations.
Linebackers: This is the Vikings' weakest group. They are a non-descript group that doesn't really show up a whole lot on film. They tend to be where they are supposed to be when they are supposed to be there but they don't really flash. Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr are the starters inside. The one linebacker who I have noticed some is Ben Gedeon. He is out of the group when the Vikings go to nickel personnel.
Secondary: I like the secondary group for the Vikings. I particularly like their safeties. Harrison Smith is the roll down safety in odd coverage and is very physical against the run. Anthony Harris is the other safety. He appears to have quite a bit of range and is also not afraid to mix it up against the run. Both safeties appear to play with a lot of confidence and generally seem to be in position. ... The corners also appear to play with confidence. Mackensie Alexander is the one guy that shows up on film to me he tends to be the nickel corner. Trae Waynes and Xavier Rhodes will be the regulars.
Parting thoughts on this matchup (BSJ members)
This is a really intriguing game to me. I think Zimmer is one of the better coaches in the NFL. This is a huge game for the Vikings. They don't want to drop down to five losses on the season. They have a lot to overcome.
Some key questions I have for the Vikings will be:
- Will they be able to win on the road?
- How will they handle the elements?
- What priority will they place on Rob Gronkowski and how will they adjust their coverages?
- On offense, what will they really go after? The Patriots will do everything they can to take Diggs and Theilen away. Rudolph and Cook will be key.
- Will they try and establish the physical downhill run game early and play action shots off of that?
- How will they attack the Vikings linebackers in Cover 4 with James White? They should be able to do so.
- Will the Patriots be able to handle the creative blitz package of the Vikings?
- How will the Patriots match up on defense in the pass game? Thielen, Diggs, Rudolph and Cook all need to be accounted for and are capable of game-changing plays.
Will we see more aggressive defense again this week? I loved some of the blitz package the Patriots utilized against the Jets.