At this point a year ago, the Patriots were 8-2 and were in the midst of their usual late-season roll. After dusting the Falcons and then having a pre-bye dud (but win) against the Chargers, New England charged out of their Week 9 bye week by throttling the Broncos, Raiders and Bills on the road, and dominating the Dolphins at home.
These Patriots are 7-3 and coming road struggles at Chicago and Buffalo, a good home win over the Packers, and a road debacle against the Titans.
So, no, the Patriots — to this point — have not been better than their '17 version, as I predicted they would be before the season.
Now, to be fair, that prediction was based only on one criteria: Can the Patriots better their finish last season of a Super Bowl loss to the Eagles? Can they be a 60-minute team on the biggest stage, instead of the 50-minute version (they led 33-32 with 9:22 to play) that fell to Philly?
So this wasn't about the regular season or through Week 11. We all knew Julian Edelman wouldn't be there the first four weeks, so a 2-2 start was not entirely unexpected.
For the Patriots to look like they have to this point? That has been unexpected, at least to me. And it's largely historic in the Bill Belichick Era.
New England fell from sixth to 11th. This is the first time the Patriots have ranked outside the DVOA top ten during the second half of the season since the 2008 Matt Cassel team. It's the first time that a Tom Brady Patriots team has ranked outside the top ten in the second half of the season since the 2005 Patriots finished the year 12th overall.
The Patriots have 44 net points (the difference between points scored and points allowed) through 10 games. That’s ninth in the league (behind the Colts). New England, which has finished first in point differential three of the previous four seasons, has finished eighth or worse just four times under Belichick — 2013 (8th), ’05 (13th), ’02 (14th), ’00 (23rd). They didn’t advance to a Super Bowl in any of those seasons. The Patriots are on pace for 70.4 net points. They haven’t finished a season under 100 since ’05 (41).
OFFENSE
DEFENSE
IN CONCLUSION
So to bring everything home and kind of quantify the exercise we went through, we put together one of our trusty tables and assigned values to the verdicts (plus-2: big plus; 1.5: plus-plus; 1: plus; 0.5: slight plus and vice versa). Here's what we had for each side of the ball:
[table id=190 /]
[table id=192 /]
When I go through this quantitative exercises, I do it to largely to keep myself honest. Go through with the analysis, and where it comes out in the end, that's where the story resides.
The first time around, I was surprised where my analysis came out the way that it did. Was I a little naive and influenced by the health and optimism of camp, and didn't factor in things like health? Yes, absolutely. But while we all know injuries will be a factor in every season, it's very difficult to predict them (which player? what injury?). It's part of the reason why I don't understand the criticism of preseason predictions ... are we supposed to project when star players suffer season-changing injuries in the first weeks of the season?
In any event, this reassessment feels right. I would say the offense is largely off from where we figured them to be. And I would say the defense has been largely the same as last season.
But I still think there's a lot of room for growth down the stretch. I don't think the Patriots have come close to playing their best on either side of the ball, especially on offense. So there's some hope in these revamped numbers.
If the Patriots are going to be the team I projected them to be before the season, a lot of players are going to have to up their games down the stretch.
For the Patriots to end this season with a Super Bowl title, these are the players that are on the spot and need to deliver:
Offense
Tom Brady
Sony Michel/Rex Burkhead
Josh Gordon
Chris Hogan
Rob Gronkowski
Marcus Cannon
Defense
Malcolm Brown
Adrian Clayborn
Dont'a Hightower
Out of that group, I would say it's likely the Patriots will get more from Brady, the running backs, Cannon and Clayborn.
So, to me, this season hinges on the receivers, Gronkowski, Brown and Hightower.
Can that group muster enough for the final six games plus the postseason? It doesn't feel like it, but it can't be ruled out.