NOTE: If you want a calm and rational discussion of the Patriots' offense against the Packers, please read on. If you don't care to read someone else's opinion, you can quit reading and fire off your nasty Tweet to me right now.
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The Patriots used everything but the kitchen sink to put up their 31 points against the Packers in New England's eventual 31-17 victory.
There was:
- The 59-yard opening touchdown drive that relied on a no-huddle offense to surprise the Packers and had their defenders gasping for air.
- Receiver — sorry ... playmaker — Cordarrelle Patterson ran 61 yards on 11 carries, including five-straight runs of 43 yards that notched their second touchdown.
- A 37-yard pass from Julian Edelman to James White set up their third touchdown.
- Josh Gordon was left wide-open by the Packers thanks to another deceptive play on the final touchdown.
- Edelman had two rushes for 28 yards that set up Gordon's score, and then gained the game-sealing first down.
There's a lot of original, entertaining, well-timed, well-called and well-executed plays/tactics right there. Good job by the Patriots. All that helped them to get the win. No one is disputing that.
You can stop there, enjoy the win and be done with it. That's fine.
You could also, if you wanted to, stop and ask the essential question that we always ask ... Why? If we hyper-analyze when, say, the Patriots choose to run 45 times between the tackles because they loved the matchup there, or the Patriots drop Brady back 52 times and he threw for 500 yards and four touchdowns because, evidently, they liked their match up there ... then why wouldn't we do the same with a game that sure seemed out of character for these Patriots?
So the question I have is: Why did the Patriots feel compelled to pull out all the stops against a defense that was ranked 20th by FootballOutsiders.com (21st against the pass) and had allowed 29 points at home to Minnesota, 31 at Washington, 31 at Detroit, 30 at home against C.J. Beathard and San Francisco and 29 to a Rams team that played Green Bay straight up?
Why didn't the Patriots, with Tom Brady at the helm and plenty of experienced talent around him, feel they could do the same? Or did they ... and this was just happenstance?
There are plenty of possible explanations — both positive and somewhat negative — for the Patriots' decision, and we'll touch on all of them. But the discussion starts — and, I'm sorry, it is relevant — because of two things:
- Football coaches — especially offensive coordinators — don't do anything accidentally. Yes, they have a section of the playsheet devoted to deceptive plays every week (NOTE: I'm using the term 'deceptive' because that's the football term -- not that they're trying to deceive/cheat. I.E., coaches will refer to a deceptive period in practice where they work on screens, reverses, trick plays — it's a catch-all term). Those plays, or versions of them, are part of the gameplan every week.
- The Patriots coaches — especially Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels — don't do anything without a very specific reason. I've never sat in on one of their game planning sessions, but I have with the next best thing: the Houston Texans with two former Patriots assistants (Bill O'Brien and George Godsey).
This is how the gameplanning goes down:
The head coach sets the tone at the beginning of the week/each morning. From advance scouting and Ernie Adams' work, plus Belichick's own film watching, Belchick tells the coordinators the type of approach he wants to see that week based on what he sees from the opponent and how his team is performing.
Belichick will say something like, "We all know Mike Pettine and he knows us. We know he'll have some designer pressures early in to try to hit Brady so we might want to think about going hurry-up on the first drive and during stretches during the game to prevent that."
Or ... "It looks like we won't have Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michel for this game. We're pretty hard-pressed right now to get chunk plays without them and the way we're going, we should have a pretty strong deceptive package ready to go." Or ... "Without Shaq Mason, I don't think we can block Mike Daniels/Kenny Clark effectively so we'll need to account for that..."
With that, McDaniels starts to work at putting together a gameplan — with the assistance of the other offensive coaches who have specific responsibilities (and there are check-ins with Brady) — that follows Belichick's broad strokes. McDaniels and at least Dante Scarnecchia will meet with Belichick late on Monday and Tuesday to present the different pieces of the gameplan and he can approve, veto or adjust certain things. Then the gameplan is presented to the team on Wednesday morning.
So the Patriots almost certainly put all that in the gameplan and practiced it for this specific game for a reason. And it worked. I mean, look at the drive chart — it was basically the opening drive and two four-quarter drives.
[table id=181 /]
Now let's get into the possible reasons, which go from the crazy to the mundane and the mildly concerning:
They're practicing for later in the season: Um, no.
The Patriots just wanted the deceptive plays on film: I'm sure they like them on film, but I don't think it was any kind of driving force.
Patriots respect Pettine: He's been a pain in the rear to the Patriots and Brady specifically going back to his time as Rex Ryan's defensive coordinator with the Jets. Probably a little much to ask for the Packers to play like the Jets in Pettine's first year, but better to be safe than sorry. I do believe this is why the hurry-up was used in this game. They did not want the Packers to get set and spring designer blitzes and coverages at them. The Patriots do that with these types of schemes.
Injuries:
If you ranked the Patriots' offensive players, Gronkowski, Mason and, to an extent, Michel would be near the top of the list. So to be without them in this game certainly wasn't optimal, and I think it was a part of the reason the Patriots did what they did. I also don't think it's an excuse — the Patriots still have plenty of capable players ready to go, and if they're not that good behind the starters (Dwayne Allen, Kenjon Barner, Ted Karras) then what the heck are they doing here? This is more of a personnel issue than an actual issue.
The Rodgers Effect: There was likely some concern that Aaron Rodgers could just have one of his unconscious games where he's in the zone and there's nothing the defense can do about it, so Belichick wanted to have some quick-strike chunk plays ready in case the scoreboard started to light up. The Patriots could deal with that with full personnel against the Chiefs, but there wasn't a lot of optimism within the group that they could keep up with these players. Even though the Patriots didn't really need the plays in the fourth quarter, they decided to use them to put the afterburners on and finish off the Packers. I think this was a very real factor, but secondary to...
The Patriots just aren't really clicking in the passing game right now: To me, this is the main issue. Even with Gronk, we've been talking about these issues for a few weeks now and they continued against the Packers. Basically, since the Chiefs game when they abused an even worse defense with Gordon, White, Edelman, a little bit of Gronk and a functioning running game, they've been scuffling. That the Patriots don't have a running back they feel comfortable handing the ball off to is not an affirmation of Michel — I mean, it could be, I'm not going to discount it but there's no direct evidence that it is — it's a personnel choice they made to not bring in anyone else at the position.
Be that as it may, the Patriots are largely scuffling in the passing game. In the past two games, Brady's passer rating has been below 100, his completion percentage has decreased and he's thrown one touchdown. Just look at the plays inside in the 10-yard line against the Packers (not all Brady, but an example of their lack of precision):
[table id=182 /]
That is not the chart of a highly functioning offense.
And here's one other thing to keep in mind. Between the end of the first drive and the start of the fourth quarter (41 minutes, 35 seconds of game time), these were Brady's stats:
11 of 23
166 yards
48.8 completion percentage
68.0 passer rating
If you toss out the Edelman pass and Gordon touchdown, the Patriots gained an average of 5.4 yards on the other 63 plays (I took out the kneel-downs). That's well below their average (5.79) and the league average (5.68).
Also, heading into the Packers games, the Patriots' defensive/special teams had as many touchdowns (three) as Brady did throwing (three, all to White). They also had one rushing touchdown and five field goals.
You put all that together, and I think the Patriots' brain trust was not feeling great about where the offense was and felt they needed to augment it with a heavy dose of deceptive plays/tactics to catch the Packers napping and spring some big plays. Yes, I think that also includes Brady, but I'm not sure how much of that is actually him, or caused by his surroundings.
But I do think Pettine, the injuries and Rodgers were also factors — it's rarely ever one thing — that led to the Patriots trying a different approach this week. And it certainly worked, so a job well-done by everyone, including the players, who executed well.
Of course, all of this leads to another question — is getting healthy going to cure all their ills, or is something else going on with Brady and this offense? But that's a topic for a different time (and after the Titans).
Here are the positional ratings against the Titans:
Quarterback (2.5 out of 5)
This was a decidedly average game for Brady where he had two long stretches without completions. Again, it's hard for me to tell how much of that is on him, or whether he's just a victim of what's around him. This wasn't a game with a high degree of difficulty, and he made as many throws as he missed. The pass where he sailed Chris Hogan was especially egregious — you don't see Brady miss that badly all that often. Brady's still not seeing the field with his usual flawlessness. That I think is caused by the lack of cohesion around him.
Running backs (4 out of 5)
Patterson did an excellent job with his opportunities because McDaniels put Patterson in a position to succeed with the fullback leading the way and short tosses, which made Patterson's runs a lot like kick returns. It's not a coincidence that Patterson had carries for no gain and 1 yard without a fullback, but was 9 for 60 on the others. Some really good blocking as well by the whole unit. That being said, sometimes it's better to be lucky and have Brady than being good. Watch this "route"
I still don't get why Kenjon Barner doesn't get more opportunities. Had a great blitz pickup against Clay Matthews, and had a solid 4-yard run that would have been for more had Trent Brown not missed his block and allowed the linebacker to make a terrific tackle (similar to Tramon Williams on White on the goal line). ... White had the two touchdowns, but not much else. In fact, he was fairly poor blocking with a sack and knockdown allowed.
Receivers (3.5 out of 5)
A solid outing for this group as a whole but everyone had some issue, whether it was Julian Edelman's drop, Dwayne Allen's poor run blocking — in fact, the blocking for this group was a bit average. ... Josh Gordon's best game as a Patriot. Love how he snatches the ball with his hands and his body control continues to improve. Mistakes are being cut down every week. ... I don't know why the Patriots don't use Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett more. The passing game would be much more effective. I think they're playing the long game with Gordon and others. But at some point, the circle of trust will be closed. ... Edelman's Mr. Reliable, but it's starting to scare me that we see something like this every week.
Offensive line (5 out of 5)
[table id=183 /]
Largely an excellent game by this group. Brady had minimal pressure and the run blocking was solid. I split the Mike Daniels sack between Ted Karras and David Andrews (little spotty) because it looked like Karras was expecting help. The other one was on White. ... In order of effectiveness: Joe Thuney, Karras, Marcus Cannon, David Andrews, Trent Brown. ... Some run game discussion, both the bad and the good, here:
DEFENSE
[table id=184 /]
Defensive line (4 out of 5)
Largely nice work by the line and it would have been even better without three missed tackles. Work on the edge was flawless but there were a few gap issues that seemed to get cleaned up. ... Trey Flowers was a beast again, and it was nice to see Adrian Clayborn play a bit better. ... Keionta Davis was actually not a detriment in this game so he's making progress after getting benched earlier this year.
Linebackers (3 out of 5)
Sure looked like Elandon Roberts, after a string of really good games, was benched for the first quarter (no snaps, but on field for first snap of the second). Might have been late for a meeting. I'm just guessing. ... Dont'a Hightower was average outside of a few late hurries (Rodgers holds onto the ball so long he invites more pressure than he should. ... Kyle Van Noy had some issues in pass coverage, including one zone cover where Brian Flores was ripped Van Noy didn't get better depth on a third-down conversion.
Secondary (4 out of 5)
Stephon Gilmore did a nice job against Devante Adams (though he got help), and Patrick Chung predictably kept the soft Jimmy Graham quiet (I put his touchdown on Duron Harmon for getting sniffed out by Rodgers). The coverage overall was excellent. ... Devin McCourty continues to play better since getting more time at free safety, which we've advocated for a while.
THREE UP
Trey Flowers: Same thing every week when he's healthy — he's the unstoppable force up front.
Cordarrelle Patterson: Executed very well and even when he screwed up, he was able to make plays.
Joe Thuney: Flawless in pass protection and with Daniels and Clark on the other side, that's saying something.
THREE DOWN
Dwayne Allen: Brady finally found him wide open and he had a few good blocks, but he and Brown were the reason why the running game didn't pop more.
It gets tougher from here on out. Really reaching.
Trent Brown: Had some really good blocks, but his lack of refinement in the run game left a lot of yards on the field.
Derek Rivers: Only played four snaps but this is largely a season-long award — he has zero pressures in 53 pass-rush snaps this season.