We'll get into the videos breaking down some of the issues in the 43-40 win over the Chiefs, and our usual positional breakdowns, gamecharts and 3 up/3 down, but first I wanted to discuss the answers to some of the most frequent questions I get about the Patriots defense because, for some reason (don't ask me why), the answers crystalized as Kansas City kept marching up and down the field on New England.
Probably the most common questions I get asked about the Patriots' defense are these:
- Why aren't they very good defensively between the 20s (total yards)?
- Why are they much better in the red zone (points allowed)?
- Why does New England struggle against mobile quarterbacks?
Don't ask me why it took me this long to come up with a good answer outside of Bill Belichick plays the percentages with everything they do (the odds of an opponent scoring a touchdown by going 12 plays every drive are low, making a quarterback complete passes deep and outside the numbers are a low percentage for the offense, getting more draft picks increases the odds of landing a good player, etc.). That's definitely in play in this whole discussion.
Think about it. If, over 16 games, you force an opponent by driving the field virtually every time to score seven points by not turning the ball over and not allowing big plays, the odds are the Patriots are going to be successful a lot more than they are not, especially against opponents that are inferior from a talent perspective. Against teams that are as talented or more talented, all bets are off. But how often does that happen in the postseason — maybe in the AFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl? That's about it.
So playing the percentages -- as Belichick does -- is very sound. The Patriots' ridiculously successful track record is all the evidence you need of that.
But when it comes to one-game situations against a good quarterback — especially of the mobile variety — and offensive talent as good or better than what the Patriots can counter with defensively, New England will be hard-pressed to have the kind of dominating, three-and-out defense that so many of its fans would like to see.
Why?
It all comes down to simple math, as well as Belichick's philosophy at one position:
Free safety.
On early downs and against quarterbacks/offenses that can threaten the deep parts of the field, the Patriots play their free safety — either Devin McCourty or Duron Harmon — so deep that they're basically not part of the defense. They are a fail-safe to prevent big plays, which Belichick detests like his post-game press conferences.
Take a look at these pictures and the position of the free safety on early downs against the Chiefs:
This is one of the first plays of the game. McCourty is 20 yards from the line of scrimmage. On most defenses, that free safety would dive on the crosser in front of him to make a play. The Patriots don't do that because the want to prevent a big play, like the one that could develop as a corner is beaten, like at the bottom of the shot.
This is typical of the Patriots' defense. The Chiefs have run a read option and are throwing the slant to Travis Kelce. Again, in most defenses, the free safety would be on the 45-yard line and anticipating the slant to Kelce. The Patriots are content to allow the catch — if the quarterbacks can complete it.
This was a bit of a busted coverage from the Patriots (both Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts are rushing the passer when one is supposed to be in coverage) and there are three receivers to the top against two defensive backs. In most defenses, the safety would creep up and take away the middle of the field.
Let's do the math. The Patriots, on early downs, take the free safety out of the defense. So that leaves 10 players against 10 offensive players since most quarterbacks don't count. You have five offensive linemen, and the Patriots usually counter with four rushers. So that still leaves the Patriots with a numbers advantage — six defenders against the five possible offensive targets.
There are two situations where the Patriots get the free safety involved in the structure of the defense: third downs and the red zone. Because the field is compressed inside the 20-yard line, which means there is less field to defend, New England is comfortable moving the free safety up, as you see in the following pictures:
If this was first down, the free safety would be on the 5-yard line. Here, McCourty is allowed to help against Tyreek Hill, but it doesn't work as Hill blows past McCourty and Jonathan Jones on the near-touchdown early.
This is typical of the Patriots in the red zone. Instead of the safety starting 20 yards from the line of scrimmage, he's now 12-15 yards. That makes a huge difference.
So, it's easy to see why the Patriots aren't exactly a dominating defense between the 20s. Their philosophy dictates most of it, and if the talent isn't really good — especially in terms of good man-to-man cover players at corner and linebacker — they're going to have some issues with good offenses that aren't prone to unforced errors (like Pat Mahomes had in the first half on Sunday night).
(Adam Richins for BSJ)Here are the positional ratings against the Chiefs:
Quarterback (4 out of 5)
Probably Tom Brady's best game of the season — which wasn't unexpected due to the limitations of the Chiefs' defense — but his sack/fumble (he fumbled twice in this game) was absolutely inexcusable and the type of play you see from an inexperienced player. Brady showed great touch in this game and most of his best plays came to Julian Edelman. Still, Brady has much room for growth. He's still not seeing the field like he normally does and isn't spotting the open receiver with his usual aplomb, but I'm going to continue to chalk that up to the flux with his targets, and Brady not exactly trusting newcomers like Sony Michel and Trent Brown with his protection. Brady's lack of timing with Josh Gordon is on the newcomer, not Brady. Tremendous run for a TD by Brady.
Running backs (4 out of 5)
Sony Michel had a solid game and he continues to make progress. He had his favorite run of mine to date on a 15-yard scamper that showed improved vision and playmaking ability, which is an indication the game is slowing down for him and bigger things could be expected.
Receivers (2.5 out of 5)
Edelman was flawless in this game, and we already documented Rob Gronkowski's immense value even when he's not being used in the passing game. But Gordon had a really rough game with three wrong routes, including one that caused Brady to be pressured when Gordon wasn't in the right spot. It's obvious the Patriots feel force-feeding Gordon is the best way to get him up to speed quickly, and we'll have to see how that plays out. ... Nice of Chris Hogan to make an appearance with a huge catch. ... Don't agree with Phillip Dorsett not being used — Brady has a real rapport with him — but I don't have any Super Bowl rings.
Offensive line (4 out of 5)
[table id=167 /]
Brady had very good protection most of the night and I think I noted more outstanding run blocks in this game — Andrews and Shaq Mason had two dandies on touchdowns — than any other. Good work against a front the Patriots should have and did own. In order of effectiveness: Joe Thuney, Andrews, Mason, Brown, Marcus Cannon/LaAdrian Waddle.
DEFENSE
[table id=168 /]
Defensive line (3.5 out of 5)
A good game out of this group, with the standouts being Lawrence Guy (tough to move against the run), Adam Butler and Trey Flowers showing great awareness to snuff out two screens, and Adrian Clayborn's only three pressures coming on third downs to help the team to get off the field. .... First tough game for Kyle Van Noy since Detroit as he had some tackling issues, missed the edge on one play and there were a few assignment mix-ups. He was still good, however.
Linebackers (4 out of 5)
Dont'a Hightower got the accolades due to his four standout plays — the interception, a knockdown to cause an interception, a hurry and a snuffed-out screen — but he continued to have a lot of problems in pass coverage and didn't fill the gap on Kareem Hunt's 31-yard run. ... Hightower's splash plays also hid the fact Elandon Roberts may have played his best game as a Patriot. He was absolutely outstanding in the run game and, other than falling for one read-option fake, had no mental or physical errors.
Secondary (1 out of 5)
Duron Harmon had an interception on an ill-advised throw by Mahomes, and there were a couple pass breakups. But this game was largely an abomination by the secondary and it wasn't just one player. Almost all the big plays by the Chiefs involved multiple errors by an experienced secondary and that shouldn't happen.
Let's go through them:
THREE UP
James White: If you were giving out an award for offensive MVP to this point, I don't think there should be much debate that it's the running back. Most consistent player and best player to date.
Elandon Roberts: Didn't notice him much in this game because he was doing his job, especially in the run game. His best game as a Patriot.
Joe Thuney: Most consistent blocker up front who helped pick up Brown after he got beat once, and helped spring Michel for a touchdown.
THREE DOWN
Devin McCourty: Had at least partial responsibility on five of the Chiefs' biggest plays, including three touchdowns. His speed is still there (did you see him almost run down Hill a few times?) but he's having trouble anticipating and getting out of his breaks. That can be cleaned up.
Duron Harmon: Had the interception, but the 75-yard touchdown – which was not all his fault but should have been limited to a big gain — just can't happen, along with a couple of other key plays.
Jason McCourty: This makes it a clean sweep for Rutgers and, yes, it pains me to do it. Looked to have responsibility on the Hunt and Hill (75-yard) touchdown by not covering the deep part of the field.