10 predictions for the Celtics season - Going over or under?

Instead of going through a usual roundup of predictions, let’s spice things up a little bit with some over/unders on key categories and players for the upcoming Celtics season.

Points per Game: Kyrie Irving
Over/Under: 22.5

Prediction: Over. He averaged 24 ppg last year despite dealing with constant pain in his knee that ultimately led to the removal of the hardware in there. Unlike Gordon Hayward, Irving looked like his old self already during his preseason tuneups and has a year of familiarity within Brad Stevens’ system now. While he has more scoring options around him than ever, the ball still runs through him and he’s going to get his shots. I’d expect him to get back to 25 ppg.

Assists per Game: Kyrie Irving
Over/Under: 5.5

Prediction: Over. I’m a bit less confident about this than the scoring with Irving.

He worked a nice two-man pick-and-roll game with Aron Baynes for much of last year and I’d expect Al Horford to take over most of those reps as the true center of the starting five. Still, it will be on his starting teammates to fall into catch-and-shoot spots on the floor and there’s no guarantee that Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum will knock down treys quite as well as last year. That Hayward guy should help though so let’s lean over.  

Points per Game: Gordon Hayward
Over/Under: 18.5

Prediction: Under. Hayward has improved his points per game average in his last six healthy seasons but that’s going to come to an end in Boston as he works to regain his pre-injury form. Everyone in the starting five is fully capable of averaging 15-plus points per game and Hayward isn’t a guy that is going to seek out points when he is contributing in other ways (i.e. creating). Factor that in with his early minutes limit (25-30 per game) and this feels like a stone cold lock.  

Points per Game: Al Horford
Over/Under: 13

Prediction: Under. The guy couldn’t even crack 13 last year with Hayward sidelined the entire year and Irving missing 20-plus games. That’s not a knock on Al, just more a reflection of how many chuckers are on this team. The team will be best served if Horford is hitting this number on a regular basis but I just don’t see him getting the opportunities he needs to make it happen. He’ll continue to be a highly efficient and slightly under-utilized option. However, that’s not the worst thing in the world if it means he’s got plenty in the tank for the postseason.

Games Started: Aron Baynes
Over/Under: 15

Prediction: Over. I know Stevens want to start small but I have a suspicion that he’ll go to the Australian selectively over the course of the season. Some might be due to planned rest for Horford, others for matchup purposes, but defensively this is a look that might be better for the team anyway. If things go awry out of the gate with the smaller starting five, Baynes is the anchor that can be inserted to help stabilize the defense.

Points per game: Terry Rozier
Over/Under: 9.5

Prediction: Over. The Celtics' fanbase got wind of this number at 7.5 last week and hammered the over in what will surely be an easy payday. Bovada wised up and raised it to 9.5 to help balance out the action but I’m still taking the over here. Rozier has looked terrific this preseason and will try to push his way into closing time lineups if the type of production we saw last postseason can be maintained. As one of the best catch-and-shoot guards on the team, his spacing may become a crucial part of the nightly gameplan if there is regression from other areas of the roster.  

Points per Game: Jayson Tatum
Over/Under: 15.5

Prediction: Under. There are only so many shots to go around in this lineup and it’s going to be challenging for him to match incredible 3-point shooting from his rookie year. With his offensive involvement expected to be scaled back a bit  (like the first half of last year), it’s going to take some serious regression from Hayward or Brown to reach this number.

All-Stars from the Celtics
Over/Under: 2.5

Prediction: Under. The balance of star power around the league remains tilted firmly towards the Western Conference, but asking Hayward to return to All-Star form in the first half is a tall task. I don’t anticipate Tatum and Brown putting up the numbers needed to make them serious contenders for this spot. Having one of the deepest teams in the league has its drawbacks when it comes to individual accolades.  

Regular season win total for Celtics
Over/under: 59

Prediction: Under. The state of the Eastern Conference is better than advertised, at least in the top half. The Raptors, Bucks, Sixers, Pacers and Heat are going to be tough outs on any given night. The C’s can never seem to win in Washington either. The Hornets and Cavs won’t be as bad as people think (something we saw firsthand in the preseason). Maybe I’m reading into the tough preseason too much but there are too many issues that need to be ironed out early for me to predict that this group passes the 60-win threshold.

Playoff rounds for Celtics
Over/under: 3.5

Prediction: Over. The Raptors will be the biggest obstacle for the C’s (the Bucks may be a close second) in the postseason. It should come down to homecourt in any kind of matchup there and I expect the C’s will have that edge.