The NFL trade deadline is coming on October 30. During their 3-2 start, there has been -- and will continue to be -- a clamoring for the Patriots to add some more help, whether that be at linebacker, safety or another target for Tom Brady. And that's before they lose anyone else to injury.
But this year — and for, really, the first time in recent memory — that won't be easy. They're virtually out of cap space at $1,772,004. In fact, they'll need to create more room just to finish the season before they entertain adding pieces to their roster puzzle.
In all, after the transition to the new CBA was completed in 2013, at this stage of the season (the second week of October), New England has never had this little space.
Cap space at this time in previous years:
2013: $6,231,332
2014: $9,770,599
2015: $3,776,666
2016: $9,407,367
2017: $4,799,048
Average at this time: $6,797,002
The Patriots finished each of those seasons with a surplus of cap space, which they were allowed to roll over to the next season:
2013: $4,106,801
2014: $5,258,054
2015: $1,347,882
2016: $5,292,335
2017: $3,012,602
Average surplus: $3,803,535
So the Patriots have used the following amounts of cap space from now until the end of the season.
2013: $2,124,531
2014: $4,512,505
2015: $2,428,784
2016: $4,115,032
2017: $1,786,446
Average expenses to finish season: $2,993,460
That is, the least amount of cap space used ($1,786,446) from early October to the end of the regular season is more than the Patriots current cap space ($1,772,004).
Before we even talk about adding players at the deadline, New England will have to create cap space just to meet its cap responsibilities by the end of the season. Why? There are certain costs teams incur during the course of the season they need to account for:
1. Earned NLTBE (Not Likely to Be Earned) 46-man active roster bonuses. These bonuses are the only NTLBE incentives that hit the current year's cap when earned. As you can see below, the Patriots could lose over $2.5 million in cap space if the following 13 players are active for every game the rest of the year. To illustrate this, since Julian Edelman was not active for any game in 2017, the Patriots lost $31,250 in cap space Tuesday on the NFLPA public salary cap page.
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(Even though I list six more factors, just the potential lost cap space because the 46-man active roster bonuses will cause the need for the Patriots to either extend a player or restructure a player's contract.
2. The Patriots are certain to place more players on injured reserve before the end of the regular season. Replacing those players will take up cap space. For example, let us presume the Patriots place a player on IR sometime this week and they fill his spot on the 53-man roster with a rookie. That rookie will have a cap number of $338,824 as it is very likely that his yearly salary will be the minimum of $480,000.
3. If the Patriots place Duke Dawson on their 53-man roster this season, his weekly salary will increase from $21,353 to $28,235. And that would increase his 2018 cap number.
4.) If the Patriots choose to extend a player who is making the minimum salary, the extension can only increase that player's 2018 cap number, since his prorated signing bonus will now be part of his 2018 cap number.
5.) If the Patriots agree to settle Malcolm Mitchell's grievance for more than $252,000, the difference will then hit the Patriots' salary cap.
6.) If the Patriots lose Kenny Britt's grievance this year, they would lose $630,000 in cap space.
HOW DID THEY GET HERE?
As the Patriots' cap space has dwindled, it's reasonable to ask how this happened. Several reasons:
1. The Patriots have never had a player with a cap hit of at least $20 million on their roster. This year, Tom Brady's cap number is $22,000,215, the highest of his career. Brady's second-highest cap number ($17,426,720) came during an uncapped year - 2010. His third-highest cap number ($14,805,600 in 2014) is over $7 million less than his current cap number.
2. The 2018 Patriots currently have four players with cap hits of at least $10 million — more than they have had him recent years:
2018: 4
2017: 3
2016: 2
2015: 1
2014: 1
2013: 3
3. Several Patriots players saw a large increase in their cap numbers from '17 to '18:
Brady: $14,007,095 to $22,000,215
Stephon Gilmore: $8,575,845 to $12,513,130
Rob Gronkowski: $6,944,380 to $11,531,465
Dont'a Hightower: $5,340,023 to $8,529,888
Shaq Mason: $732,976 to $3,424,976
Trey Flowers: $761,828 to $2,053,828
4. The Patriots already have over five percent of their adjusted cap number allocated to players who are either on injured reserve or non-football injury lists. As of October 9, they already have 12 players on these lists. Why does it matter how many players are on IR so early in the season? Because the team is paying his replacement more weeks than if the injury occurred late in the season. And sometimes, the replacement is more expensive. For example, John Simon -- who just replaced Ja'Whaun Bentley on the 53-man roster -- costs twice as much. From my personal recollection, 12 is high for early October. Please note -- I haven't kept track of how many players were on IR/NFI/PUP at the end of each month, but I have kept track of those numbers for season's end.
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5. While all of the above is happening, the Patriots continue to have the deepest middle class in the NFL. New England led the league with players on the active roster who have a cap hit of at least $1 million.
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6. While all of the above is happening, they continue to allocate cap space to special teamers. The four core special-teamers (Nicholas Grisby, Matthew Slater, Nate Ebner, and Brandon King) have a total cap hit of $5,901,505 or 3.27 percent of the Patriots adjusted cap number of $180,229,789.
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