Do I expect the Patriots to all of a sudden snap out of their two-game funk, morph into the world-beaters they have been for years and blow the Dolphins back to reality on Sunday while restoring order in the AFC East?
No, although it could very well happen, considering Miami has a terrible track record at Gillette.
But after watching the film, I do think the Dolphins present an excellent opportunity for the Patriots to get a little healthy on both sides of the ball, if they finally start to execute properly.
Let's go over some off the reasons on both sides of the ball:
Patriots offense
- The biggest thing is, after playing a very physical and fast defense (Jaguars) and then a team that knows all their secrets (Lions), the Patriots will be facing a defense that, a) isn't very exotic and b) isn't very good at executing what they like to do.
- In the past under defensive coordinator Matt Burke, the Dolphins haven't done anything crazy to try to limit Rob Gronkowski. Even last week against the Raiders they were still allowing free releases off the line for Jared Cook. If they do that again this week, expect a big Gronk game.
- Yes, the Patriots will have to pay extra attention to ends Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn, but the interior line of the Dolphins is fairly weak and movable, so the Patriots should be able to run the ball effectively, which sets up their play-action game.
- This would be a perfect game for Josh Gordon to get his feet wet and be solely a decoy to distract excellent CB Xavien Howard.
- If you thought the Patriots' linebackers are bad at covering, wait until you see the Dolphins. There should be ample easy plays available to Tom Brady if he chooses to take them.
- The Dolphins have busts galore in their secondary. They had three in just the first quarter against the Raiders. Brady must be licking his chops:
- Yes, with the appearance of DeVante Parker last week, the Dolphins should have a plethora of playmakers at their disposal with Parker, Kenny Stills, Albert Wilson, Jakeem Grant and Kenyan Drake. And coach Adam Gase and offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains have had all offseason to gameplan for this one.
- But the Dolphins are still limited by their offensive line and what Ryan Tannehill can do. The offensive line will give up plays on the edges, and the interior is weak and can be moved around, which means the Patriots should be able to handle the running game (11 carries for 15 yards by running backs last week).
- Tannehill has been excellent overall this season, but he's still very much a system quarterback who struggles with multiple reads. As long as the Patriots can handle the Dolphins' designed deep and trick shots, then Tannehill is going to have a tough time playing winning football for all four quarters.
- The Raiders were not good at that, so they gave up 196 yards on four plays. The Dolphins had 177 on the other 35 (5.1 yards). The Dolphins are 27th in third-down conversions for a reason. Six of the Dolphins' first eight possessions ended with punts after three, seven, three, six, three and five plays. This is not a high-powered offense; they're just timely.
With that, here is your detailed BSJ scouting report on the Dolphins (3-0):
OFFENSE
Scheme
Loggains takes over for Clyde Christensen as offensive coordinator, but this is Gase's offense and he calls the plays. Loggains is known as a creative offensive mind in previous stops with the Titans and Bears. Gase has masterfully got the most out of Tannehill in their time together (10-1 in last 11 starts), creating an offense that accentuates Tannehill's strengths but minimizes his weaknesses with a lot of half-field reads and designed deep shots.
Dolphins rank sixth in yards per play, 17th in average rush, fourth in passing yards per attempt, 28th in first downs, 27th on third downs, 23rd in the red zone, 30th in time of possession. They average 11 points per game.
Quarterbacks
Tannehill is off to another fast start under Gase, who intimately understands the limitations of his quarterback — and they are many — and accentuates his strengths. If there's something the Dolphins can do to give Tannehill a clean pocket and designed reads, they'll do it. That includes running some hurry-up. Tannehill is largely accurate, but he still reads defenses very slowly and will be late with some throws. If the Dolphins go deep, it's almost always a designed shot. Gillette Stadium has been Tannehill's personal house of horrors.
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Brock Osweiler, the former starter for the Broncos and Texans who has a history with Gase, is the backup. ... David Fales, a former sixth-round pick of the Bears in 2015, is usually inactive.
Receivers
Kenny Stills (6-1, 196, 4.35 in the 40): A burner who usually is the X, he has inconsistent hands and doesn't react well to physical play. Has team-leading 13 targets on the season.
DeVante Parker (6-3, 212, 4.42): Terrific athlete who was recruited by Kentucky to play basketball. Definitely flashes on the field, but injuries and inconsistency have plagued him. Made season debut last week with three targets.
Danny Amendola (5-11, 190, 4.58): We all know all about him. Playing in same slot role. Dolphins don't use much motion but they love to go to him on backside slants off read option. Twelve targets.
Jakeem Grant (5-6, 165 pounds, 4.38): Electric with the ball in his hands and in space. The Patriots also know well that he can make plays down the field against cornerbacks. Twelve touches this season.
Albert Wilson (5-9, 186, 4.43): The former Chiefs gadget player threw a touchdown to Grant and had one of his own on a tap pass, jet sweep against the Raiders. Speed to burn with 11 targets.
Offensive line
LT Laremy Tunsil (6-5, 315): Former first-round pick has good skills but not sure if he has the feet for the position. Has gotten off to a good start this season with one pressure allowed.
LG Ted Larsen (6-3, 323): Former Patriots draft pick has bounced around but he's still very beatable on the inside. Two pressures allowed.
C Daniel Kilgore (6-3, 291): Former 49er has been below average. Very light for the position and can get overpowered. Solid pass blocker (one pressure allowed)
RG Jesse Davis (6-6, 325): Didn't make it to the end of training camp with Seattle and the Jets previously. Very tall for a guard. Four pressures allowed in three games.
RT Ja'Wuan James (6-6, 312): Huge OT but is very slow and is repeatedly beaten by speed. Four pressures (one sack) allowed.
Running backs
Kenyan Drake (6-1, 210, 4.38): Speedy back runs with good balance but lacks veteran vision. Home-run hitter. Has been let down by poor run blocking.
Frank Gore (5-9, 212): The 14-year veteran is still a solid player, but he'll only get what is blocked. That's not much with this line.
Brandon Bolden (5-11, 220): Former Patriot hasn't touched the ball yet, and is solely an emergency option.
DEFENSE
Scheme
Matt Burke, a Hudson native who played safety at Dartmouth, is in his second year as a coordinator with the Dolphins after Vance Joseph left to coach the Broncos. Coached linebackers with Bengals and Lions previously. Not an overly complex scheme. Doesn't blitz a lot, and alternates between man and three-deep zones.
Dolphins rank 20th in yards per game, sixth in points per game, third in rush yards per play, 23rd in pass yards per attempt, 19th in first downs, 23rd on third downs and are tied for third in the red zone.
Defensive line
Dolphins lost two of their best edge players (William Hayes, Andre Branch) to injury last week, which means more time for Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn.
LE Cameron Wake (6-3, 263): Has lost a step and isn't the force he once was, but still knows how to setup a blocker. Has a team-leading 10 pressures (one sack)
DT Davon Godchaux (6-3, 315): Shows a little something in the rush but can be moved around in the run game.
DT Akeem Spence (6-1, 307): Tries to be a physical player but is too easily shoved out of gaps.
RDE Robert Quinn (6-4, 257): Former Rams standout is looking to recover his former glory. Still a physical force (seven pressures, one sack).
Sub DT Jordan Phillips (6-6, 341): Does not hold the point of attack well. One of the big reasons why he's splitting time with Godchaux. Terrible against the run.
Sub DE Charles Harris (6-3, 250: Shows good potential as a pass rusher. Can be targeted with sub runs.
Linebackers
MLB Raekwon McMillian (6-2, 248): Second-year player is a good tackler but he has a lot of trouble getting off blockers. Can run.
SLB/MLB Kiko Alonso (6-3, 249): Absolutely can't cover anyone, but he's smart and will snuff out a running lane and developing screen.
WLB Jerome Baker (6-2, 215): Has been so bad in coverage that Allen replaced him quickly vs. Raiders. Does not fit this defense.
Sub LB Chase Allen (6-3, 250): In a theme for the Dolphins' linebackers, he's slow and can't cover, but he can defend the run if tackles are taking up blockers.
Secondary
LCB Xavien Howard (6-1, 192): Flashed onto the scene last year with a huge game against Brandin Cooks and the Patriots (two INTs). Physical, instinctive player who won't back down. Will travel if the Dolphins feel the need. Already has three INTs and has allowed just a 33 percent completion rate.
RCB/Slot Bobby McCain (5-11, 192): Tough-nosed competitor but lacks top-end quickness (57.1 completion percentage).
Nickel Minkah Fitzpatrick (6-1, 202): First-round pick out of Alabama is physically imposing but is still very green. Played safety last week with Jones out, but could be back at corner.
Bench Cordrea Tankersley (6-1, 200): Has had his moments over the years. Competes hard and has some length.
FS T.J. McDonald: Slow of foot and is targeted by opposing offenses for deep shots.
SS Reshad Jones: Was once one of the best player at the position in the league but he's been battling injuries (missed last week) and hasn't been effective. When he's good, this defense is solid. Great at coming up vs. the run and jumping into passing lanes. Tom Brady will be watching him.
SPECIAL TEAMS
P Matt Haack is off to a terrific start with a 49.6 average and 11 punts inside the 20. ... K Jason Sanders has four kickoffs returns this year (40-yard average) and 11 touchbacks. Has missed an extra point and is 2 of 2 on FGs ... Grant is explosive on kickoff returns (37.7 average, one touchdown). Grant and Amendola combine for punt returns.