McAdam: Red Sox can't be certain of Dustin Pedroia's return next spring

Dustin Pedroia and the Red Sox Friday confirmed what just about everybody already knew: Pedroia will not be returning to action this season.

Having undergone major surgery on his left knee last October, Pedroia returned to the Red Sox in late May and played three games before going back on the DL. When he made little progress in his rehab after that, he returned home to Arizona to train on his own, and, as was disclosed Friday, underwent an arthroscopic procedure at the end of July to clean out some scar tissue.

"He's put himself close, but not close enough,'' said manager Alex Cora. "He's hitting, swinging the bat, running, but actually, we ran out of time.''

"I knew all along it would be tough (to return to action this season),'' Pedroia confessed. "It's a surgery that requires time and once you give it time, you'll be fine.''

Pedroia professed the strong belief that he'll be fully recovered by February when spring training begins.

"I'll be ready, 100 percent,'' he said. 'The build-up time will be more than enough.''

But the Red Sox have heard that before. Pedroia said it in spring training, vowing he would come back good as new. He said it again in Houston at the end of May when he was placed on the DL, insisting that it was a temporary setback and not entirely unexpected.

And Friday, he said it again.

This is not to disparage Pedroia, whose competitiveness is unrivaled. Doubtless, he did everything he could do to recover from this surgery and will continue to do so.

But the Red Sox can't make the same mistake again. They can't go into 2019 confident that Pedroia will be their everyday second baseman.

The type of surgery that Pedroia underwent last October is rare for a major league player, though teammate Steven Wright had a similar one and took more than a year to come back. Most of the time, this injury is found in basketball players, so there's little precedent with which to work.

And maybe Pedroia is correct, that he only needs additional time to fully heal.

However, it's worth noting that when the Red Sox assemble in Fort Myers, Pedroia will be 35-years old and will have played in exactly three major league games in the previous 15 months. Moreover, only once in the previous four seasons will he have played more than 105 games.

The Sox made the mistake of waiting until February to land a suitable replacement at second for Pedroia for the first two months of the season, and when they did, they re-signed Eduardo Nunez, who was neither healthy nor a suitable major league second baseman.

That the Sox were able to survive with Nunez being the (mostly) everyday second baseman for the first three months of the year is astounding. The acquisition of Ian Kinsler represented a huge defensive upgrade and freed up a healthier Nunez to move to third, where he's subsequently flourished and has unseated Rafael Devers as the starter.

The Sox are unlikely to be that lucky again next season. Fortunately, the Red Sox have a couple of options in-house.

Although he's a year older than Pedroia at 36, Kinsler has demonstrated that he can still be an effective regular at second. He provides some pop (14 homers) in the bottom half of the lineup and still has decent range at second. The Sox could do worse than to have Kinsler around to either be the temporary starter or represent insurance at second to start the season.

Kinsler is a free agent this winter, but given the market this past winter for players in their mid-30s, would not require much of an investment, in terms of either money or term.

Brandon Phillips is another option, though a less certain one. Phillips played well at Triple-A for two months, and made an immediate impact with his ninth-inning, game-winning homer in his Red Sox debut Wednesday in Atlanta. As a short-term caretaker of the position, he's more of a risk than Kinsler would be.

Perhaps with a full winter to build strength and test the knee, Pedroia will be able to reclaim his position next spring. Given that the Sox owe him $40 million more beginning in 2019, that would be the best-case scenario for everyone involved.

But the Sox can't assume that will be the case. It's already backfired on them more than once.