Based on what we’ve seen to this point on the calendar — two weeks of training-camp practices and two preseason games, not to mention all the spring workouts and what has happened with each of these players in the past — here are 20 over/under scenarios involving the Patriots and the 2018 regular season. (Per usual, we’ll have some fun with these predictions when the playoffs roll around.) Take a look at what we came up with, and feel free to offer your opinion in the comments below.
1. Rob Gronkowski: 80 catches — He’s going to get fed from start to finish for a few reasons, including the fact he’s one of the most overwhelming offensive options in the league, as well as Julian Edelman’s four-game ban to start the season. He’s certainly been muted to this point in the summer, but provided he steers clear of injury, the big tight end should be good for 80-plus catches this season again. Our take: Over.
2. Julian Edelman:
60.5 catches — We’ve written a lot about a reasonable level of expectation for the slot receiver this season. Even though he’s made sure to remind people he doesn’t have his “football legs” back quite yet, he’s looked good when he’s been out there, displaying a nice burst and not showing any ill effects of last year’s knee injury. He’ll be set back statistically after missing the first four games, but will still find a way to break the 60-catch barrier this season. Our take: Just over.
3. James White: 65 catches — The franchise record for most catches in a season by a running back? Tony Collins, who had 77 in 1986. There are going to be points this season where White might appear capable of smashing the mark. One of the only backs in the league who has at least 150 receptions since the start of the 2015 season, without Edelman in the lineup for the first four games and a thinned-out receiving corps, White will be one of the most important parts of the passing game in 2018. Our take: Over. He won’t break Collins’ record, but he’ll come close.
4. Phillip Dorsett: 40 catches — While there have been some uneven performances for Dorsett to this stage of the summer, those of us who are driving the Dorsett Bandwagon still believe that a full offseason in the program and a steady dose of work in the spring and summer will pay dividends in the fall and winter. He’s not going to win Offensive Player of the Year, but he should be the primary deep threat for the passing game, and demand attention from opposing defensive backs on a consistent basis. Our take: Just under.
5. Rex Burkhead: 550 rushing yards — Every statement that involves predictions regarding Burkhead has to start with the disclaimer “if he stays healthy,” as well as “if Sony Michel stays healthy.” It’s going to be another year of running back-by-committee, but if Burkhead can stay on the field on a consistent basis in 2018, he has a chance to break 500 rushing yards for the first time in his career. (Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if this group turned out to be a little like the 2014 backfield; that year, New England became the first Super Bowl winner since the 1987 Redskins to have four different running backs finish with 40 carries or more in their championship season.) Our take: Under. It all depends on whether or not Burkhead stays healthy, but even so, he’ll probably have some of that work taken by some of the other backs.
6. Sony Michel: 500 rushing yards — As was the case with Burkhead, this all hinges on his health. If Michel is able to go by the end of September, I can envision a scenario where he’s capable of becoming the closest thing this offense has to a lead back by the end of the season. But until he shows he can deliver at the NFL level on a consistent basis, we have to manage expectations accordingly. Our take: Under.
7. Tom Brady: 40.5 touchdown passes, 8.5 interceptions — Brady’s numbers will take a small dip over the first four games without his buddy Edelman in the lineup. But for the most part, he should be able to make up a lot of that ground toward the end of the season. Our take: Both under.
8. Stephon Gilmore: 2.5 interceptions — Gilmore is primed for a big season. The only question: How frequently will opposing quarterbacks throw in his direction. With some uncertainty on the other side, our feeling is he simply won’t get a lot of opportunities for interceptions. Our take: Under.
9. Trey Flowers: 9.5 sacks — Flowers has every reason to have a monster season, including the fact he’s going into the last year of his rookie deal, and stands poised to cash in if he can hit the double-digit sack mark. Other than health, the only question here might be his ability to play off some of his teammates, including Deatrich Wise. But the pieces appear to be in place for him to hit double digits in sacks for the first time in his career Our take: Over.
10. Adrian Clayborn: 7.5 sacks — Almost every year, the Patriots get a defensive lineman who has been around a few years. Sometimes it works (Andre Carter, Ted Washington, Chris Long). Sometimes, it doesn’t (Albert Haynesworth). After seeing his work over the last week or so, I’m going to put Clayborn in the first group. He’s looked really good over the first two preseason games, and should provide a nice compliment to the likes of Flowers on the other edge. Our take: Over.
11. Points per game scored: 28.5 — With no Edelman in the lineup in the early going, it’ll be too much to ask the offense to hit its 30 point per game average. (For some context, they averaged 28.6 per game last year.) Our take: Under.
12. Points per game allowed: 18.5 — They allowed 18.5 per game in the regular season last year. With the additions to the pass rush, I’m going to wager that they should be a little better in 2018. Our take: Just barely under.
13. Turnover ratio: Plus 8.5 — The Patriots have always done well when it comes to protecting the ball, so the thinking here is the totals are going to be pretty good. At the same time, they need a few more playmakers on defense to get the turnover rate to where they might want it to be. Our take: Under.
14. Special teams touchdowns: 1.5 — Two different things at play here: One, Cordarrelle Patterson is special — so special, in fact, that he’ll account for at least one kick return for touchdown in 2018. And two, the Patriots will exploit the new kickoff rules and catch at least one other team unaware at some point this season. Our take: Over.
15. Dont’a Hightower: 13.5 games played — One of the toughest guys on the roster, Hightower has looked good this summer, working in a variety of spots while hinting the Patriots might move him a bit in hopes of generating more of a pass rush. At the same time, we’ll fall back on one of our favorite phrases — not all snaps are created equal. I can see a scenario where Hightower misses a few games in the name of the bigger picture. As long as he’s good to go from mid-December on, however, everything should be OK. Our take: Just under.
16. Stephen Gostkowski: 90 percent on field goal attempts — Gostkowski has hit on 90 percent or better of his field-goal attempts every year since 2013. Since 2011, he has the best FG percentage of any kicker who has participated in at least 100 games (89.4 percent). While the postseason might be another matter, he remains one of the best in the league when it comes to the regular season. Our take: Over.
17. Total undrafted free agents who make the opening day roster: 1.5 — At least one undrafted rookie has made the Patriots’ Week One roster in each of the last 14 seasons, one of the longest such streaks in the NFL. But with the 2018 campaign looming, because of personnel and depth chart considerations, that run might be in danger of coming to an end. Defensive back J.C. Jackson and running back Ralph Webb have flashed positively at times this summer, but still need a few things to break their way if they want to make it to the final 53. Our take: Under. But the streak barely survives.
18. Regular-season snaps for Brady’s backups: 20.5 — Last year, Brian Hoyer had 23 snaps in relief of Brady. (We’ll skip 2016 because of Brady’s suspension.) Jimmy Garoppolo had 13 in 2015, and 69 in 2014. Our take: Over. (Of course, this all with the understanding Brady will stay healthy.)
19. Penalties: 95 — The Patriots have usually been somewhere in the 90-plus range for roughly the last decade or so, pretty close to being among the best in the league in that time. (Other than the 120 in 2014, which stands as the franchise mark for most flags in a year.) We’re going to go just over the norm this time around, not so much because of what the Patriots might do, but based on what we’ve seen to this point on the calendar, we’re expecting a spike in penalties across the league this year because of the confusion around the new helmet rules. Our take: Over.
20. Regular-season wins: 11.5 — Once again, this feels like a 12-win team. The only question? When will those losses come? Are they going to have defeats that could alter the landscape in the chase for home field in the AFC (at Jacksonville or Pittsburgh)? Or will they be the sort of setbacks that don’t have any real impact on AFC home field? Our take: Over.