Raptors trading for Kawhi Leonard gives Celtics a new top threat in East

The Toronto Raptors felt like they needed to shake things up this offseason and they managed to do just that on Wednesday morning. Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports was first to report that the Raptors are finalizing a blockbuster deal that will send DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl and a protected first round pick to the San Antonio Spurs for Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. Neither Leonard or DeRozan is enthused about the deal according to reports, adding a layer of intrigue to the high stakes poker play by Raptors general manager Masai Ujiri.

The move for Toronto is reminiscent of the gamble the Oklahoma City Thunder took by acquiring Paul George from the Indiana Pacers on an expiring contract last summer. Leonard is in a similar spot this summer, in the final year of his deal, demanding out and with a murky injury situation to boot. The Raptors still feel he is worthy of the flight risk, however, and are hopeful they can sell him on Toronto over the long-term. They are willing to give up a flawed star to do so in DeRozan, who has played in Toronto for all nine years of his career. He has three years remaining on his deal and will earn $27.7 million per season.

How did both teams do in the trade? And what impact will the move have on the hierarchy in the East? Let’s take a look at both sides before assessing things from Boston’s perspective.

How does this impact the Celtics?

The Celtics are still the favorites in the Eastern Conference, but they may no longer have the best player in a head-to-head playoff series with Toronto if a healthy Leonard materializes up north. That’s far from a sure thing, but it is a bit of a concern from Boston’s perspective. It isn’t just that the Raptors got Leonard here, it’s the price they got him at. Leonard is a postseason upgrade over DeRozan by a wide margin and that’s what matters from Toronto’s standpoint after so many playoff collapses in recent years. Ujiri also managed to upgrade his playoff rotation by adding Green over Poeltl. Green will come in handy for small ball matchups against the Celtics and other East foes much more than Poeltl ever would.

Here’s a look at a hypothetical matchup with the Celtics and Raptors right now, assuming small ball lineups for both squads:

PG: Irving vs. Lowry
SG: Brown vs. Green
SF: Hayward vs. Leonard
PF: Tatum vs. Anunoby
C: Horford vs. Ibaka

Bench

Baynes/Theis/Morris/Ojeleye/Wanamaker/Smart/Rozier vs. Valanciunas/Siakam/Miles/Powell/Van Vleet/Wright

The Celtics have the edge there overall but the gap talent-wise between the two squads just got a little bit closer. The Raptors have far more outside shooting now with Leonard and Green over DeRozan and a more switchable lineup defensively. That’s what they are going to need in order to take down Boston in any seven-game series. Whether new head coach Nick Nurse can fit all these pieces together and get Leonard to buy in fully remains to be seen. Boston will certainly have the continuity factor edge and that matters as we saw last postseason with Oklahoma City. The health of Leonard’s quad also remains in question and that’s a storyline that won’t be going away anytime soon.

Still, if everything breaks right for Toronto, Leonard is a top-5 player in the league when healthy. It’s unclear whether the Raptors are getting that guy but the prospect of it makes a playoff run through Eastern Conference a bit more daunting for the Celtics. With that said, this trade could also help make life easier for the Celtics in the East beyond 2019 if Leonard ends up walking, so there is some encouraging long-term upside there.

Up until Wednesday, nearly everything had gone right for The Green this offseason from an Eastern Conference perspective. LeBron James had headed West and all the big names (Paul George, Chris Paul, DeMarcus Cousins) remained out there as well. Leonard heading to Toronto changes that. It doesn’t change the balance of power in the East, but it does push the Raptors ahead of the Sixers as the most viable threat to Boston.

How did San Antonio do?

Getting DeRozan for Leonard helps Gregg Popovich remain somewhat relevant in the Western Conference during the final coaching years of his career. DeRozan is a regular season stud who has routinely turned into an inefficient liability during the postseason over the course of his career. He’s probably a bit overpaid given that fact and is nowhere near the two-way player that Leonard is while healthy, but this is probably as good as the Spurs were going to do from a return standpoint if they didn’t want to blow it up. Popovich gets a competitive team to finish out his career with, and there’s nothing wrong with wanting that given his track record. He has earned it at this point.

Their eventual return here reflected the tough market that Leonard created. DeRozan makes $7.5 million more than Leonard, so the Spurs had the ability to move a big salary the other way to offset the pieces they’ll be getting in addition to Leonard. Danny Green is a useful player, but he’s past his prime at age 31 and hasn’t shot over 40 percent from the field in the last three years. The Spurs landed Poeltl, a young big man who was probably underutilized in the crowded Raptors frontcourt. He doesn’t have outside shooting range, but he’s a great finisher (66% FG) who still has two years on his rookie deal. He’ll provide some nice depth to the San Antonio frontcourt.

How did Toronto do?

This team was at a crossroads after another dominant regular season that flamed out in the playoffs. DeRozan was a loyal soldier but was never going to be the No. 1 option on a championship team. His offensive game continually gets exposed in the playoffs due to his lack of 3-point range (21 percent career from 3 in the postseason), and that’s what ultimately made a move like this necessary. The Raptors are well over the luxury tax, so they had no flexibility to add in free agency and their cap sheet is full of useful players with minimal trade value due to inflated deals (Lowry, Ibaka, etc.).

The only chance for big change here was a risky splash like this, but the eventual price here makes it one worth taking. Toronto held onto its best young talent here in OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, a pair of promising defenders that will be needed to hang with the Celtics and Sixers. Poeltl was expendable depth, the first round pick they gave up will be in the 20s, and DeRozan is simply the cost of doing business here. Toronto’s postseason upside is higher now with Leonard taking DeRozan’s place, even if it is only for one year.

The long-term downside for Toronto is a bit more daunting if Leonard walks next summer, but the age of this starting core made a reset likely anyway if this team couldn’t push their way into the Finals in 2019. The contending window for this group has been shrinking with Lowry getting deeper into his 30s and Serge Ibaka’s play declining. The question Ujiri had to answer was whether this group had enough to get through the East with what they finished the season with now that the LeBron James boogeyman had departed. It’s clear with this deal that the answer in his mind was a resounding no.